Johan van der Molen

Modelling marine ecosystem response to climate change and trawling in the North Sea

The marine ecosystem response to climate change and demersal trawling was investigated using the coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical water column model GOTM-ERSEM-BFM for three contrasting sites in the North Sea. Climate change forcing was derived from the HadRM3-PPE-UK regional climate model for the UK for the period 1950–2100 using historical emissions and a medium emissions scenario (SRESA1B). Effects of demersal trawling were implemented as an additional mortality on benthic fauna, and changes in the benthic–pelagic nutrient and carbon fluxes. The main impacts of climate change were (i) a temperature-driven increase in pelagic metabolic rates and nutrient cycling, (ii) an increase in primary production fuelled by recycled nutrients, (iii) a decrease in benthic biomass due to increased benthic metabolic rates and decreased food supply as a result of the increased pelagic cycling, and (iv) a decrease in near-bed oxygen concentrations. The main impacts of trawling were (i) reduced benthic biomass due to the increased mortality, and (ii) the increased benthic–pelagic nutrient fluxes, with these effects counteracting each other, and relatively small changes in other variables. One important consequence was a large decrease in the de-nitrification flux predicted at the two summer-stratified sites because less benthic nitrate was available. The effects of trawling scaled linearly with fishing effort, with greatest sensitivity to fishing in summer compared to fishing in winter. The impacts of climate change and trawling were additive, suggesting little or no non-linear interactions between these disturbances.

Understanding winter distribution and transport pathways of the invasive ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi in the North Sea: coupling habitat and dispersal modelling approaches.

The invasive ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi has been reported in various coastal locations in the southern North Sea in the past years. Since 2009, International Bottom Trawl Surveys have recorded this species each winter in open waters. As this species, well-known for its dramatic disturbance of ecosystems, was expected not to be able to overwinter offshore it is crucial to understand its distribution dynamics. Two modelling methods, a quantile regression and a particle tracking model, were used (1) to identify habitats where the invasive ctenophore M. leidyi could survive the North Sea cold winters and (2) to investigate the dispersal of individuals between these different habitats, emphasizing favorable areas where sustainable populations could have been established. Temperature was found to be the crucial factor controlling the winter distribution of M. leidyi in the North Sea. High abundance predictions in winter were associated with low values of temperature, which characterise south-eastern coastal areas and estuaries influenced by riverine runoff. A retention-based M. leidyi population was indicated along the northern Dutch coast and German Bight and a transport-based population offshore from the western Danish coast. Individuals found in the open waters were transported from southern coasts of the North Sea, thus the open water population densities depend on the flux of offspring from these areas. This study provides the first estimates of the overwinter areas of this invasive species over the cold winters in the North Sea. Based on the agreement of habitat and dispersal model results, we conclude that M. leidyi has become established along south-eastern coasts of the North Sea where the environment conditions allows overwintering and it can be retained for later blooms.

Connectivity of larval stages of sedentary marine communities between hard substrates and offshore structures in the North Sea

Man-made structures including rigs, pipelines, cables, renewable energy devices, and ship wrecks, offer hard substrate in the largely soft-sediment environment of the North Sea. These structures become colonised by sedentary organisms and non-migratory reef fish, and form local ecosystems that attract larger predators including seals, birds, and fish. It is possible that these structures form a system of interconnected reef environments through the planktonic dispersal of the pelagic stages of organisms by ocean currents. Changes to the overall arrangement of hard substrate areas through removal or addition of individual man-made structures will affect the interconnectivity and could impact on the ecosystem. Here, we assessed the connectivity of sectors with oil and gas structures, wind farms, wrecks, and natural hard substrate, using a model that simulates the drift of planktonic stages of seven organisms with sedentary adult stages associated with hard substrate, applied to the period 2001–2010. Connectivity was assessed using a classification system designed to address the function of sectors in the network. Results showed a relatively stable overall spatial distribution of sector function but with distinct variations between species and years. The results are discussed in the context of decommissioning of oil and gas infrastructure in the North Sea.