Kieran Hyder

Use of spatiotemporal analysis of laboratory submission data to identify potential outbreaks of new or emerging diseases in cattle in Great Britain

BackgroundNew and emerging diseases of livestock may impact animal welfare, trade and public health. Early detection of outbreaks can reduce the impact of these diseases by triggering control measures that limit the number of cases that occur. The aim of this study was to investigate whether prospective spatiotemporal methods could be used to identify outbreaks of new and emerging diseases in scanning surveillance data. SaTScan was used to identify clusters of unusually high levels of submissions where a diagnosis could not be reached (DNR) using different probability models and baselines. The clusters detected were subjected to a further selection process to reduce the number of false positives and a more detailed epidemiological analysis to ascertain whether they were likely to represent real outbreaks.Results187,925 submissions of clinical material from cattle were made to the Regional Laboratory of the Veterinary Laboratories Agency (VLA) between 2002 and 2007, and the results were stored on the VLA FarmFile database. 16,925 of these were classified as DNRs and included in the analyses. Variation in the number and proportion of DNRs was found between syndromes and regions, so a spatiotemporal analysis for each DNR syndrome was done. Six clusters were identified using the Bernoulli model after applying selection criteria (e.g. size of cluster). The further epidemiological analysis revealed that one of the systemic clusters could plausibly have been due to Johnes disease. The remainder were either due to misclassification or not consistent with a single diagnosis.ConclusionsOur analyses have demonstrated that spatiotemporal methods can be used to detect clusters of new or emerging diseases, identify clusters of known diseases that may not have been diagnosed and identify misclassification in the data, and highlighted the impact of data quality on the ability to detect outbreaks. Spatiotemporal methods should be used alongside current temporal methods for analysis of scanning surveillance data. These statistical analyses should be followed by further investigation of possible outbreaks to determine whether cases have common features suggesting that these are likely to represent real outbreaks, or whether issues with the collection or processing of information have resulted in false positives.

SCUBA divers as oceanographic samplers: The potential of dive computers to augment aquatic temperature monitoring

Monitoring temperature of aquatic waters is of great importance, with modelled, satellite and in-situ data providing invaluable insights into long-term environmental change. However, there is often a lack of depth-resolved temperature measurements. Recreational dive computers routinely record temperature and depth, so could provide an alternate and highly novel source of oceanographic information to fill this data gap. In this study, a citizen science approach was used to obtain over 7,000 scuba diver temperature profiles. The accuracy, offset and lag of temperature records was assessed by comparing dive computers with scientific conductivity-temperature-depth instruments and existing surface temperature data. Our results show that, with processing, dive computers can provide a useful and novel tool with which to augment existing monitoring systems all over the globe, but especially in under-sampled or highly changeable coastal environments.

Uses of Innovative Modeling Tools within the Implementation of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive

In Europe, and around the world, the approach to management of the marine environment has developed from the management of single issues (e.g. species and/or pressures) towards holistic Ecosystem Based Management that includes aims to maintain biodiversity and protect ecosystem functioning. Within the European Union, this approach is implemented through the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD, 2008/56/EC). Integrated Ecosystem Assessment is required by the Directive in order to assess Good Environmental Status (GES). Ecological modeling has a key role to play within the implementation of the MSFD, as demonstrated here by case studies covering a range of spatial scales and a selection of anthropogenic threats. Modeling studies have a strong role to play in embedding data collected at limited points within a larger spatial and temporal scale, thus enabling assessments of pelagic and seabed habitat. Furthermore, integrative studies using food web and ecosystem models are able to investigate changes in food web functioning and biodiversity in response to changes in the environment and human pressures. Modeling should be used to: support the development and selection of specific indicators; set reference points to assess state and the achievement of GES; inform adaptive monitoring programs and trial management scenarios. The modus operandi proposed shows how ecological modeling could support the decision making process leading to appropriate management measures and inform new policy.

Estimating post-release mortality of European sea bass based on experimental angling

Estimating post-release mortality of European sea bass based on experimental angling Wolf-Christian Lewin, Harry Vincent Strehlow, Keno Ferter, Kieran Hyder, Jan Niemax, Jens-Peter Herrmann, and Marc Simon Weltersbach* Thünen Institute of Baltic Sea Fisheries (Thünen-OF), Alter Hafen Süd 2, 18069 Rostock, Germany Institute of Marine Research, Fisheries Dynamics, PO Box 1870 Nordnes, 5817 Bergen, Norway Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, Pakefield Road, Lowestoft, Suffolk NR33 0HT, UK Centre for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Institute for Hydrobiology and Fisheries Science, University of Hamburg, Klimacampus, Olbersweg 24, 22767 Hamburg, Germany Institute for Biosciences, University of Rostock, Albert-Einstein-Straße 3, 18059 Rostock, Germany *Corresponding author: tel: þ49 381 8116 128; fax: þ49 381 8116 199; e-mail: simon.weltersbach@thuenen.de

The role of citizen science in monitoring small-scale pollution events

Small-scale pollution events involve the release of potentially harmful substances into the marine environment. These events can affect all levels of the ecosystem, with damage to both fauna and flora. Numerous reporting structures are currently available to document spills, however there is a lack of information on small-scale events due to their magnitude and patchy distribution. To this end, volunteers may provide a useful tool in filling this data gap, especially for coastal environments with a high usage by members of the public. The potential for citizen scientists to record small-scale pollution events is explored using the UK as an example, with a focus on highlighting methods and issues associated with using this data source. An integrated monitoring system is proposed which combines citizen science and traditional reporting approaches.

The influence of oceanographic conditions and larval behaviour on settlement success—the European sea bass Dicentrarchus labrax (L.)

The European Seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax) is a slow-growing late maturing fish. The northern stock has been declining since 2010 and is thought to be caused by a combination of fishing and weak year classes. Large inter-annual variation in settlement has been observed, so a better understanding of the mechanisms driving settlement success will aid interpretation of the variation between years, and help to improve the stock assessment models and management strategies. In this study, an individual-based model (IBM) was developed to investigate the factors affecting sea bass settlement on nursery grounds of the northern sea bass stock. The IBM was coupled with hydrodynamics to track particles, whereas egg and larval development, and vertical migration behaviour are fully incorporated. The IBM successfully predicted inter-annual differences in settlement regardless of larval behaviour. The highest settlement success was predicted with neutrally buoyant eggs, hatchlings, and larval stages, in combination with tidal migration at the final larval stage. Dispersal was driven mainly by the influence of wind on residual currents and water temperature, with warmer temperatures reducing the duration of the pelagic phase and stronger current increasing the potential to drift further. Eggs spawned in the central western English Channel settled in both England and France, with movement from the central to the eastern English Channel occurring only in warm years. Larval duration was driven by water temperature and showed an increase in duration from the southwest to northeast areas of the northern stock. The results are discussed in the context of sea bass management and conservation strategies.

Expanding Aquatic Observations through Recreation

Accurate observations of the Earth system are required to understand how our planet is changing and to help manage its resources. The aquatic environment−including lakes, rivers, wetlands, estuaries, coastal and open oceans−is a fundamental component of the Earth system controlling key physical, biological, and chemical processes that allow life to flourish. Yet, this environment is critically undersampled in both time and space. New and cost-effective sampling solutions are urgently needed. Here, we highlight the potential to improve aquatic sampling by tapping into recreation. We draw attention to the vast number of participants that engage in aquatic recreational activities and argue, based on current technological developments and recent research, that the time is right to employ recreational citizens to improve large-scale aquatic sampling efforts. We discuss the challenges that need to be addressed for this strategy to be successful (e.g. sensor package design, data quality, and citizen motivation), the steps needed to realize its potential, and additional societal benefits that arise when engaging citizens in scientific sampling.

A Review of the Tools Used for Marine Monitoring in the UK: Combining Historic and Contemporary Methods with Modeling and Socioeconomics to Fulfill Legislative Needs and Scientific Ambitions

Marine environmental monitoring is undertaken to provide evidence that environmental management targets are being met. Moreover, monitoring also provides context to marine science and over the last century has allowed development of a critical scientific understanding of the marine environment and the impacts that humans are having on it. The seas around the UK are currently monitored by targeted, impact-driven, programmes (e.g. fishery or pollution based monitoring) often using traditional techniques, many of which have not changed significantly since the early 1900s. The advent of a new wave of automated technology, in combination with changing political and economic circumstances, means that there is currently a strong drive to move towards a more refined, efficient, and effective way of monitoring. We describe the policy and scientific rationale for monitoring our seas, alongside a comprehensive description of the types of equipment and methodology currently used and the technologies that are likely to be used in the future. We contextualise the way new technologies and methodologies may impact monitoring and discuss how whole ecosystems models can give an integrated, comprehensive approach to impact assessment. Furthermore, we discuss how an understanding of the value of each data point is crucial to assess the true costs and benefits to society of a marine monitoring programme.

Connectivity of larval stages of sedentary marine communities between hard substrates and offshore structures in the North Sea

Man-made structures including rigs, pipelines, cables, renewable energy devices, and ship wrecks, offer hard substrate in the largely soft-sediment environment of the North Sea. These structures become colonised by sedentary organisms and non-migratory reef fish, and form local ecosystems that attract larger predators including seals, birds, and fish. It is possible that these structures form a system of interconnected reef environments through the planktonic dispersal of the pelagic stages of organisms by ocean currents. Changes to the overall arrangement of hard substrate areas through removal or addition of individual man-made structures will affect the interconnectivity and could impact on the ecosystem. Here, we assessed the connectivity of sectors with oil and gas structures, wind farms, wrecks, and natural hard substrate, using a model that simulates the drift of planktonic stages of seven organisms with sedentary adult stages associated with hard substrate, applied to the period 2001–2010. Connectivity was assessed using a classification system designed to address the function of sectors in the network. Results showed a relatively stable overall spatial distribution of sector function but with distinct variations between species and years. The results are discussed in the context of decommissioning of oil and gas infrastructure in the North Sea.

The impact of marine recreational fishing on key fish stocks in European waters

Marine recreational fishing (MRF) has been shown to substantially contribute to fishing mortality of marine fish. However, European MRF catches are only quantified for a small number of stocks, so it is unclear whether a significant part of fishing mortality is excluded from stock assessments. This study estimated: (i) European MRF removals, which were defined as landings plus dead releases; and (ii) impact at stock level by comparing the percentage contribution to total removal by MRF and commercial fishing. As MRF data were limited for some European countries, catches were reconstructed using a mixture of average release proportions, average fish weights, and extrapolation using the catch per fisher of the nearest country providing catch estimates. Where catch reconstructions exceeded 50%, data were excluded from further analysis. Furthermore, as MRF survey methodology can be variable, semi-quantitative estimates of bias and error were calculated for each stock. Only 10 of the 20 stocks assessed in this study had sufficient MRF data for full reliable estimates. Percentage contribution to total removals (MRF + commercial removals) by MRF ranged between 2% for Atlantic mackerel in the North Sea and Skagerrak and 43% for Atlantic pollack in the Celtic Seas and English Channel. The biomass removed ranged between 297 (± 116) tonnes (Atlantic cod in the western English Channel and southern Celtic seas) and 4820 (± 1889) tonnes (Atlantic mackerel in the North Sea and Skagerrak), but the errors were substantial. Additionally, the bias in the estimated removals was low for most stocks, with some positive biases found. The present study indicates that removals by MRF can represent a high proportion of the total removals for some European marine fish stocks, so inclusion in stock assessments should be routine. To achieve this, regular surveys of MRF are required to collect data essential for stock assessments.