Johannes Bieser

Evaluation and error apportionment of an ensemble of atmospheric chemistry transport modeling systems : Multivariable temporal and spatial breakdown

Through the comparison of several regional-scale chemistry transport modeling systems that simulate meteorology and air quality over the European and North American continents, this study aims at (i) apportioning error to the responsible processes using timescale analysis, (ii) helping to detect causes of model error, and (iii) identifying the processes and temporal scales most urgently requiring dedicated investigations. The analysis is conducted within the framework of the third phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) and tackles model performance gauging through measurement-to-model comparison, error decomposition, and time series analysis of the models biases for several fields (ozone, CO, SO2, NO, NO2, PM10, PM2.5, wind speed, and temperature). The operational metrics (magnitude of the error, sign of the bias, associativity) provide an overallsense of model strengths and deficiencies, while apportioning the error to its constituent parts (bias, variance, and covariance) can help assess the nature and quality of the error. Each of the error components is analyzed independently and apportioned to specific processes based on the corresponding timescale (long scale, synoptic, diurnal, and intraday) using the error apportionment technique devised in the former phases of AQMEII. The application of the error apportionment method to the AQMEII Phase 3 simulations provides several key insights. In addition to reaffirming the strong impact of model inputs (emission and boundary conditions) and poor representation of the stable boundary layer on model bias, results also highlighted the high interdependencies among meteorological and chemical variables, as well as among their errors. This indicates that the evaluation of air quality model performance for individual pollutants needs to be supported by complementary analysis of meteorological fields and chemical precursors to provide results that are more insightful from a model development perspective. This will require evaluaion methods that are able to frame the impact on error of processes, conditions, and fluxes at the surface. For example, error due to emission and boundary conditions is dominant for primary species (CO, particulate matter (PM)), while errors due to meteorology and chemistry are most relevant to secondary species, such as ozone. Some further aspects emerged whose interpretation requires additional consideration, such as the uniformity of the synoptic error being region- and model-independent, observed for several pollutants; the source of unexplained variance for the diurnal component; and the type of error caused by deposition and at which scale.

Evaluation of gas-particle partitioning in a regional air quality model for organic pollutants

Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) are of considerable concern due to their well-recognized toxicity and their potential to bioaccumulate and engage in long-range transport. These compounds are semi-volatile and, therefore, create a partition between vapour and condensed phases in the atmosphere, while both phases can undergo chemical reactions. This work describes the extension of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modelling system to POPs with a focus on establishing an adaptable framework that accounts for gaseous chemistry, heterogeneous reactions, and gas-particle partitioning (GPP). The effect of GPP is assessed by implementing a set of independent parameterizations within the CMAQ aerosol module, including the Junge– Pankow (JP) adsorption model, the Harner–Bidleman (HB) organic matter (OM) absorption model, and the dual Dachs– Eisenreich (DE) black carbon (BC) adsorption and OM absorption model. Use of these descriptors in a modified version of CMAQ for benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) results in different fate and transport patterns as demonstrated by regional-scale simulations performed for a European domain during 2006. The dual DE model predicted 24.1 % higher average domain concentrations compared to the HB model, which was in turn predicting 119.2 % higher levels compared to the baseline JP model. Evaluation with measurements from the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) reveals the capability of the more extensive DE model to better capture the ambient levels and seasonal behaviour of BaP. It is found that the heterogeneous reaction of BaP with O3 may decrease its atmospheric lifetime by 25.2 % (domain and annual average) and near-ground concentrations by 18.8 %. Marginally better model performance was found for one of the six EMEP stations (Košetice) when heterogeneous BaP reactivity was included. Further analysis shows that, for the rest of the EMEP locations, the model continues to underestimate BaP levels, an observation that can be attributed to low emission estimates for such remote areas. These findings suggest that, when modelling the fate and transport of organic pollutants on large spatio-temporal scales, the selection and parameterization of GPP can be as important as degradation (reactivity).

Assessment and economic valuation of air pollution impacts on human health over Europe and the United States as calculated by a multi-model ensemble in the framework of AQMEII3

The impact of air pollution on human health and the associated external costs in Europe and the United States (US) for the year 2010 are modeled by a multi-model ensemble of regional models in the frame of the third phase of the Air Quality Modelling Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII3). The modeled surface concentrations of O3, CO, SO2 and PM2.5 are used as input to the Economic Valuation of Air Pollution (EVA) system to calculate the resulting health impacts and the associated external costs from each individual model. Along with a base case simulation, additional runs were performed introducing 20 % anthropogenic emission reductions both globally and regionally in Europe, North America and east Asia, as defined by the second phase of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP2). Health impacts estimated by using concentration inputs from different chemistry–transport models (CTMs) to the EVA system can vary up to a factor of 3 in Europe (12 models) and the United States (3 models). In Europe, the multi-model mean total number of premature deaths (acute and chronic) is calculated to be 414 000, while in the US, it is estimated to be 160 000, in agreement with previous global and regional studies. The economic valuation of these health impacts is calculated to be EUR 300 billion and 145 billion in Europe and the US, respectively. A subset of models that produce the smallest error compared to the surface observations at each time step against an all-model mean ensemble results in increase of health impacts by up to 30 % in Europe, while in the US, the optimal ensemble mean led to a decrease in the calculated health impacts by ~ 11 %. A total of 54 000 and 27 500 premature deaths can be avoided by a 20 % reduction of global anthropogenic emissions in Europe and the US, respectively. A 20 % reduction of North American anthropogenic emissions avoids a total of ~ 1000 premature deaths in Europe and 25 000 total premature deaths in the US. A 20 % decrease of anthropogenic emissions within the European source region avoids a total of 47 000 premature deaths in Europe. Reducing the east Asian anthropogenic emissions by 20 % avoids ~ 2000 total premature deaths in the US. These results show that the domestic anthropogenic emissions make the largest impacts on premature deaths on a continental scale, while foreign sources make a minor contribution to adverse impacts of air pollution.

Modeled deposition of nitrogen and sulfur in Europe estimated by 14 air quality model systems: evaluation, effects of changes in emissions and implications for habitat protection

The evaluation and intercomparison of air quality models is key to reducing model errors and uncertainty. The projects AQMEII3 and EURODELTA-Trends, in the framework of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollutants and the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, respectively (both task forces under the UNECE Convention on the Long Range Transport of Air Pollution, LTRAP), have brought together various regional air quality models to analyze their performance in terms of air concentrations and wet deposition, as well as to address other specific objectives. This paper jointly examines the results from both project communities by intercomparing and evaluating the deposition estimates of reduced and oxidized nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) in Europe simulated by 14 air quality model systems for the year 2010. An accurate estimate of deposition is key to an accurate simulation of atmospheric concentrations. In addition, deposition fluxes are increasingly being used to estimate ecological impacts. It is therefore important to know by how much model results differ and how well they agree with observed values, at least when comparison with observations is possible, such as in the case of wet deposition. This study reveals a large variability between the wet deposition estimates of the models, with some performing acceptably (according to previously defined criteria) and others underestimating wet deposition rates. For dry deposition, there are also considerable differences between the model estimates. An ensemble of the models with the best performance for N wet deposition was made and used to explore the implications of N deposition in the conservation of protected European habitats. Exceedances of empirical critical loads were calculated for the most common habitats at a resolution of 100 × 100 m2 within the Natura 2000 network, and the habitats with the largest areas showing exceedances are determined. Moreover, simulations with reduced emissions in selected source areas indicated a fairly linear relationship between reductions in emissions and changes in the deposition rates of N and S. An approximate 20 % reduction in N and S deposition in Europe is found when emissions at a global scale are reduced by the same amount. European emissions are by far the main contributor to deposition in Europe, whereas the reduction in deposition due to a decrease in emissions in North America is very small and confined to the western part of the domain. Reductions in European emissions led to substantial decreases in the protected habitat areas with critical load exceedances (halving the exceeded area for certain habitats), whereas no change was found, on average, when reducing North American emissions in terms of average values per habitat.

Impact of Mercury Chemistry on Regional Concentration and Deposition Patterns

In the atmosphere mercury exists in three forms: Gaseous Elemental Mercury (GEM), Gaseous Oxidized Mercury (GOM), and Particle Bound Mercury (PBM). GOM and PBM make up only 1 % of the total. But deposition, which is the only sink for atmospheric mercury, is dominated by these two species. Therefore, oxidation processes are key to understand the behaviour of mercury in the atmosphere. However, in the scientific community a consensus on the importance of oxidizing reactants, namely ozone, hydroxy radicals, and halogens, has not been reached.

A vegetation control on seasonal variations in global atmospheric mercury concentrations

Anthropogenic mercury emissions are transported through the atmosphere as gaseous elemental mercury (Hg(0)) before they are deposited to Earth’s surface. Strong seasonality in atmospheric Hg(0) concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere has been explained by two factors: anthropogenic Hg(0) emissions are thought to peak in winter due to higher energy consumption, and atmospheric oxidation rates of Hg(0) are faster in summer. Oxidation-driven Hg(0) seasonality should be equally pronounced in the Southern Hemisphere, which is inconsistent with observations of constant year-round Hg(0) levels. Here, we assess the role of Hg(0) uptake by vegetation as an alternative mechanism for driving Hg(0) seasonality. We find that at terrestrial sites in the Northern Hemisphere, Hg(0) co-varies with CO2, which is known to exhibit a minimum in summer when CO2 is assimilated by vegetation. The amplitude of seasonal oscillations in the atmospheric Hg(0) concentration increases with latitude and is larger at inland terrestrial sites than coastal sites. Using satellite data, we find that the photosynthetic activity of vegetation correlates with Hg(0) levels at individual sites and across continents. We suggest that terrestrial vegetation acts as a global Hg(0) pump, which can contribute to seasonal variations of atmospheric Hg(0), and that decreasing Hg(0) levels in the Northern Hemisphere over the past 20 years can be partly attributed to increased terrestrial net primary production.Terrestrial vegetation contributes to the seasonal variation of atmospheric mercury concentrations, according to analyses of atmospheric trace gas dynamics and satellite data. The data show that the photosynthetic activity of vegetation correlates with atmospheric mercury.

Influence of Ammonia Emissions on Aerosol Formation in Northern and Central Europe

High concentrations of particles pose a threat to human health and the environment. In this study the influence of ammonia (NH3) emissions on aerosol concentration in central Europe is investigated. Depending on crop growth, temperature and local legislation individual temporal profiles for fertilizer and manure application are calculated for each model grid cell of the SMOKE-EU emission model. The emission data was used as input for the CMAQ chemical transport model. Comparisons to EMEP observations indicate that the new ammonia emission module leads to a better agreement of modeled and observed concentrations. The model was used then to assess the influence of emission changes. It was found that a reduction of ammonia emissions by 50 % lead to a 24 % reduction of total PM2.5 concentrations in the model domain during winter, mainly driven by reduced formation of ammonium nitrate.

Effects of Future Ship Emissions in the North Sea on Air Quality

By means of model simulations with the chemistry transport model CMAQ the influence of ship emissions in the North Sea on concentrations and depositions of sulfur and nitrogen oxides over Europe was investigated. Ship emissions for the North Sea of the base year 2008 were provided by the Dutch research institute MARIN. Based on this, emission scenarios were developed that comply to ECA regulations at different levels. Finally, the emissions were fed into the CMAQ model that simulates the fate of pollutants in the atmosphere in order to estimate concentrations and depositions of the pollutants of interest for each scenario. A comparison of the simulation results yielded a quantification of the changes of air pollution levels over the North Sea riparian states and, hence, provided information for estimating the benefit of installing ECAs in the North Sea. Concentration differences can reach up to 50 % close to shipping lines and still 25 % ashore. The ECA regulations to lower nitrogen and sulfur exhaust take effect at different time scales and are counteracted by the expected increase of fuel use due to increased ship traffic.

Modeling emissions for three-dimensional atmospheric chemistry transport models

ABSTRACT Poor air quality is still a threat for human health in many parts of the world. In order to assess measures for emission reductions and improved air quality, three-dimensional atmospheric chemistry transport modeling systems are used in numerous research institutions and public authorities. These models need accurate emission data in appropriate spatial and temporal resolution as input. This paper reviews the most widely used emission inventories on global and regional scales and looks into the methods used to make the inventory data model ready. Shortcomings of using standard temporal profiles for each emission sector are discussed, and new methods to improve the spatiotemporal distribution of the emissions are presented. These methods are often neither top-down nor bottom-up approaches but can be seen as hybrid methods that use detailed information about the emission process to derive spatially varying temporal emission profiles. These profiles are subsequently used to distribute bulk emissions such as national totals on appropriate grids. The wide area of natural emissions is also summarized, and the calculation methods are described. Almost all types of natural emissions depend on meteorological information, which is why they are highly variable in time and space and frequently calculated within the chemistry transport models themselves. The paper closes with an outlook for new ways to improve model ready emission data, for example, by using external databases about road traffic flow or satellite data to determine actual land use or leaf area. In a world where emission patterns change rapidly, it seems appropriate to use new types of statistical and observational data to create detailed emission data sets and keep emission inventories up-to-date. Implications: Emission data are probably the most important input for chemistry transport model (CTM) systems. They need to be provided in high spatial and temporal resolution and on a grid that is in agreement with the CTM grid. Simple methods to distribute the emissions in time and space need to be replaced by sophisticated emission models in order to improve the CTM results. New methods, e.g., for ammonia emissions, provide grid cell–dependent temporal profiles. In the future, large data fields from traffic observations or satellite observations could be used for more detailed emission data.

Seasonal ozone vertical profiles over North America using the AQMEII group of air quality models: model inter-comparison and stratospheric intrusions

The AQMEII project has resulted in an unprecedented intercomparison and examination of European and North American regional air quality models. The sensitivity of regional AQ model predictions to chemical lateral boundary conditions (CLBCs) was examined in the first two phases of AQMEII. This paper extends that previous work by analyzing one-year-long North American simulations performed in AQMEII Phase 3 by four AQ modeling systems that used the same anthropogenic and wildfire emissions