Johannes Horn

Estimations of worldwide prevalence of chronic hepatitis B virus infection: a systematic review of data published between 1965 and 2013

BACKGROUND The quantification of the burden of disease attributable to hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and the adaptation of prevention and control measures requires knowledge on its prevalence in the general population. For most countries such data are not routinely available. We estimated the national, regional, and global prevalence of chronic HBV infection. METHODS For this systematic review and pooled analysis, we searched for data on prevalence of chronic HBV infection published between Jan 1, 1965, and Oct 23, 2013, in the databases Medline, Embase, CAB Abstracts (Global health), Popline, and Web of Science. We included studies reporting the hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) serological marker of chronic HBV infection in non-high-risk groups and extracted data into a customised database. For each country, we calculated HBsAg prevalence estimates and 95% CIs weighted by study size. We extrapolated prevalence estimates to population sizes in 2010 to obtain the number of individuals with chronic HBV infection. FINDINGS Of the 17,029 records screened, 1800 report on the prevalence of HBsAg covering 161 countries were included. HBsAg seroprevalence was 3·61% (95% CI 3·61-3·61) worldwide with highest endemicity in countries of the African region (total 8·83%, 8·82-8·83) and Western Pacific region (total 5·26%, 5·26-5·26). Within WHO regions, prevalence ranged from 0·20% (0·19-0·21; Mexico) to 13·55% (9·00-19·89; Haiti) in the Americas, to 0·48% (0·12-1·90; the Seychelles) to 22·38% (20·10-24·83; South Sudan) in the African region. We estimated that in 2010, globally, about 248 million individuals were HBsAg positive. INTERPRETATION This first global assessment of country-level population prevalence of chronic HBV infection found a wide variation between countries and highlights the need for continued prevention and control strategies and the collection of reliable epidemiologic data using standardised methodology. FUNDING World Health Organization.

Epidemiological Study of Anti-HPV16/18 Seropositivity and Subsequent Risk of HPV16 and -18 Infections

BACKGROUND Infection with human papillomavirus (HPV) 16 or HPV18 elicits an antibody response, but whether the elicited antibodies protect women against subsequent infection by a homologous HPV type compared with seronegative women is unknown. METHODS Study participants were women aged 18-25 years at enrollment in the control group of the ongoing National Cancer Institute-sponsored, community-based, randomized HPV16/18 Costa Rica Vaccine Trial. At enrollment, 2813 participants were negative for cervical HPV16 DNA and 2950 for HPV18 DNA. Women were interviewed regarding sociodemographic data and medical and health history. Medical and pelvic examinations were conducted for all consenting sexually experienced women. Serum samples taken at enrollment were tested for total HPV16/18 antibodies with a polyclonal enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, and cervical specimens were tested for type-specific HPV DNA over 4 years of follow-up. Using Poisson regression, we compared rate ratios of newly detected cervical HPV16 or HPV18 infection among homologous HPV-seropositive and HPV-seronegative women, adjusting for age, education, marital status, lifetime number of sexual partners, and smoking. RESULTS There were 231 newly detected HPV16 infections during 5886 person-years among HPV16-seronegative women compared with 12 newly detected HPV16 infections during 581 person-years among HPV16-seropositive women with the highest HPV16 sero-levels. There were 136 newly detected HPV18 infections during 6352 person-years among HPV18-seronegative women compared with six new infections detected during 675 person-years among HPV18 seropositives with the highest sero-levels. After controlling for risk factors associated with newly detected HPV infection, having high HPV16 antibody titer at enrollment was associated with a reduced risk of subsequent HPV16 infection (women in the highest tertile of HPV16 antibody titers, adjusted rate ratio = 0.50, 95% confidence interval = 0.26 to 0.86 vs HPV16-seronegative women). Similarly, having high HPV18 antibody titer at enrollment was associated with a reduced risk of subsequent HPV18 infection (women in the highest tertile of HPV18 antibody titers, adjusted rate ratio = 0.36, 95% confidence interval = 0.14 to 0.76 vs HPV18-seronegative women). CONCLUSION In this study population, having high antibody levels against HPV16 and HPV18 following natural infection was associated with reduced risk of subsequent HPV16 and HPV18 infections.

Population-level impact, herd immunity, and elimination after human papillomavirus vaccination: a systematic review and meta-analysis of predictions from transmission-dynamic models

Summary Background Modelling studies have been widely used to inform human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination policy decisions; however, many models exist and it is not known whether they produce consistent predictions of population-level effectiveness and herd effects. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of model predictions of the long-term population-level effectiveness of vaccination against HPV 16, 18, 6, and 11 infection in women and men, to examine the variability in predicted herd effects, incremental benefit of vaccinating boys, and potential for HPV-vaccine-type elimination. Methods We searched MEDLINE and Embase for transmission-dynamic modelling studies published between Jan 1, 2009, and April 28, 2015, that predicted the population-level impact of vaccination on HPV 6, 11, 16, and 18 infections in high-income countries. We contacted authors to determine whether they were willing to produce new predictions for standardised scenarios. Strategies investigated were girls-only vaccination and girls and boys vaccination at age 12 years. Base-case vaccine characteristics were 100% efficacy and lifetime protection. We did sensitivity analyses by varying vaccination coverage, vaccine efficacy, and duration of protection. For all scenarios we pooled model predictions of relative reductions in HPV prevalence (RRprev) over time after vaccination and summarised results using the median and 10th and 90th percentiles (80% uncertainty intervals [UI]). Findings 16 of 19 eligible models from ten high-income countries provided predictions. Under base-case assumptions, 40% vaccination coverage and girls-only vaccination, the RRprev of HPV 16 among women and men was 0·53 (80% UI 0·46–0·68) and 0·36 (0·28–0·61), respectively, after 70 years. With 80% girls-only vaccination coverage, the RRprev of HPV 16 among women and men was 0·93 (0·90–1·00) and 0·83 (0·75–1·00), respectively. Vaccinating boys in addition to girls increased the RRprev of HPV 16 among women and men by 0·18 (0·13–0·32) and 0·35 (0·27–0·39) for 40% coverage, and 0·07 (0·00–0·10) and 0·16 (0·01–0·25) for 80% coverage, respectively. The RRprev were greater for HPV 6, 11, and 18 than for HPV 16 for all scenarios investigated. Finally at 80% coverage, most models predicted that girls and boys vaccination would eliminate HPV 6, 11, 16, and 18, with a median RRprev of 1·00 for women and men for all four HPV types. Variability in pooled findings was low, but increased with lower vaccination coverage and shorter vaccine protection (from lifetime to 20 years). Interpretation Although HPV models differ in structure, data used for calibration, and settings, our population-level predictions were generally concordant and suggest that strong herd effects are expected from vaccinating girls only, even with coverage as low as 20%. Elimination of HPV 16, 18, 6, and 11 is possible if 80% coverage in girls and boys is reached and if high vaccine efficacy is maintained over time. Funding Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

Time trends of chronic HBV infection over prior decades – A global analysis

BACKGROUND & AIMS Information on trends in chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) prevalence across countries is lacking. We studied changes in chronic HBV infection over previous decades by country, and assessed patterns of change between and within WHO-defined regions. METHODS Based on data from a published systematic review on chronic HBV, we applied a linear model on the logit scale to assess time trends in country-specific prevalence. Estimated HBsAg prevalence in 2000 and relative changes in prevalence over time were evaluated by country and region. RESULTS Sufficient data were available for 50 countries, mostly showing reductions in prevalence over time. Various degrees of heterogeneity were observed within regions, with a relatively homogenous pattern in the Eastern Mediterranean region with strong decreases in HBsAg prevalence. Europe showed a mixed pattern: higher and stable chronic HBsAg prevalence in Eastern, and constantly low prevalence in Western Europe. In Africa, some countries demonstrated no change in prevalence; increases were seen in Uganda (odds ratio 1.05 per year; 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.06), Nigeria (1.02; 1.02-1.02), Senegal (1.01; 1.01-1.02), and South Africa (1.02; 1.01-1.02). With some exceptions, country-patterns overlapped among countries of South East Asian and Western Pacific regions, characterized by low-medium HBsAg decreases, most prominent in China and Malaysia. CONCLUSIONS Most countries experienced decreases in HBsAg prevalence. Dynamics varied, even within regions; decreases occurred mostly before the direct effects of childhood vaccination may have manifested. These findings together with stable and increasing HBsAg prevalence in some countries of Africa and Eastern Europe indicate the need for further tailored country-specific prevention. LAY SUMMARY This study investigated time trends in prevalence of chronic HBV infection in 50 countries worldwide over the last decade, by estimating relative changes in prevalence. Results show decreases in chronic HBV infection in most countries; no changes or increases in prevalence are noted in some African countries. Reasons for time changes need to be investigated further; based on the results, various prevention measures have contributed to reductions, and further tailored HBV prevention is required to combat the disease on a global level.

Estimating the long-term effects of HPV vaccination in Germany

In Germany, vaccination against the most oncogenic HPV types 16/18 is recommended by the Standing Committee on Vaccination (STIKO) for 12-17 year old girls since March 2007. We developed a dynamic mathematical model for the natural history and transmission of HPV infections to estimate the impact of vaccination on incidence and mortality of cervical cancer and its pre-stages, and on anogenital warts. We focused on an extensive model calibration to epidemiologic data for all stages of the natural history model as well as on a detailed implementation of cervical cancer screening modalities in Germany. Our model predicts first a substantial reduction of cervical cancer incidence and mortality over the next 30 years, which is mainly attributable to an increase in screening participation in the 1990s and not to HPV vaccination, followed by a further reduction attributable to vaccination. Over the next 100 years, HPV vaccination will prevent approximately 37% of cervical cancer cases even if vaccination coverage is only 50% (as currently observed in Germany). Consideration of cross-protection results in a further reduction of approximately 7% of all cervical cancer cases for the bivalent and about 5% for the quadrivalent vaccine in our model. Vaccination of boys was only reasonable if moderate to high vaccination coverage in girls was not achieved. Strategies should be implemented in Germany to increase HPV vaccination coverage among girls thereby making better use of the demonstrated benefits of the vaccine.

Ebola risk perception in Germany, 2014.

Knowledge about actual risks was poor, creating the potential for inappropriate behavior changes.

Changes in incidence of anogenital warts diagnoses after the introduction of human papillomavirus vaccination in Germany-an ecologic study.

In a large health insurance database in Germany, incidence of anogenital warts among 15- to 19-year-old females decreased from 316/100,000 person-years in 2007 to 242 in 2008 (23% reduction, P = 0.0001). The decrease started between the first and second quarter of 2007 (human papillomavirus vaccination was introduced in March 2007).

Systematic review of models assessing the economic value of routine varicella and herpes zoster vaccination in high-income countries

BackgroundA systematic review was conducted to assess the cost-effectiveness of routine varicella and herpes zoster (HZ) vaccination in high-income countries estimated by modelling studies.MethodsA PubMed search was performed to identify relevant studies published before October 2013. Studies were included in the review if they (i) evaluated the cost-effectiveness of routine childhood or adolescent varicella vaccination and/or HZ vaccination targeting the elderly, and if they (ii) reported results for high-income countries.ResultsA total of 38 model-based studies were identified that fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Routine childhood or adolescent varicella vaccination was cost-effective or cost-saving from a payer perspective and always cost-saving from a societal perspective when ignoring its potential impact on HZ incidence due to reduced or absent exogenous boosting. The inclusion of the potential impact of childhood varicella vaccination on HZ led to net quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) losses or incremental cost-effectiveness ratios exceeding commonly accepted thresholds. Additional HZ vaccination could partially mitigate this effect. Studies focusing only on the evaluation of HZ vaccination reported a wide range of results depending on the selected target age-group and the vaccine price, but most found HZ vaccination to be a cost-effective or marginally cost-effective intervention. Cost-effectiveness of HZ vaccination was strongly dependent on the age at vaccination, the price of the vaccine, the assumed duration of protection and the applied cost per QALY threshold.ConclusionsWhile HZ vaccination is mostly considered cost-effective, cost-effectiveness of varicella vaccination primarily depends on the in- or exclusion of exogenous boosting in the model. As a consequence, clarification on the role of exogenous boosting is crucial for decision-making regarding varicella vaccination.

Injury prevention by medication among children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder: a case-only study.

IMPORTANCE Children and adolescents with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) have an increased risk of injuries. Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder is often treated with medication, but the evidence regarding prevention of injuries is inconclusive. OBJECTIVE To determine via a case-only design whether the use of methylphenidate hydrochloride or atomoxetine hydrochloride reduces the risk of injuries among children and adolescents with ADHD. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS We used the German Pharmacoepidemiological Research Database, which includes records from about 17 million insurees (approximately 20% of the population) from 4 statutory health insurance providers in Germany to identify children aged 3 to 17 years with new diagnoses of ADHD in 2005 and 2006. We identified 37,650 children with ADHD based on inpatient and outpatientdiagnostic codes (F90.0, F90.1, and F90.9) from the German modification of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, 10th Revision. Among them, we identified those with an inpatient injury diagnosis during follow-up until 2009. A total of 2128 children with any injury diagnosis at hospitalization, 821 of whom had a brain injury diagnosis, were included in the analysis. We applied the self-controlled case series design to control for time-invariant characteristics of the patients and time trends in the exposure. EXPOSURES Treatment with methylphenidate or atomoxetine based on prescription data. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Hospitalization because of any injury or brain injury according to the injury mortality diagnosis matrix. RESULTS Incidence rate ratios for the periods with medication compared with nonmedicated periods were 0.87 (95% CI, 0.74-1.02) for hospitalization with any injuries and 0.66 (95% CI, 0.48-0.91) for brain injuries only in the full sample. These estimates remained stable in sensitivity analyses restricting the sample to a narrower age range or to patients with a single hospitalization. There was no indication that medication prescriptions are increased after hospitalizations. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE No significant risk reduction for hospitalizations with injury diagnoses was observed during periods of ADHD medication, but there was a preventive effect on the risk of brain injuries (34% risk reduction). The effects were controlled for time-invariant characteristics of the patients by the study design.

Current and future effects of varicella and herpes zoster vaccination in Germany – Insights from a mathematical model in a country with universal varicella vaccination

ABSTRACT Varicella zoster virus (VZV) is primarily known for causing varicella in childhood, but can reactivate again as herpes zoster (HZ) after a period of latency, mainly in persons older than 50 years. Universal varicella vaccination was introduced in Germany in 2004, while HZ vaccination has not been recommended yet. We aimed to quantify the potential long-term effects of universal childhood varicella vaccination and HZ vaccination of the elderly on varicella and HZ incidence in Germany over a time horizon of 100 years, using a transmission model calibrated to pre-vaccination data and validated against early post-vaccination data. Using current vaccination coverage rates of 87% (64%) with one (two) varicella vaccine dose(s), the model predicts a decrease in varicella cases by 89% for the year 2015. In the long run, the incidence reduction will stabilize at about 70%. Under the assumption of the boosting hypothesis of improved HZ protection caused by exposure to VZV, the model predicts a temporary increase in HZ incidence of up to 20% for around 50 years. HZ vaccination of the elderly with an assumed coverage of 20% has only limited effects in counteracting this temporary increase in HZ incidence. However, HZ incidence is shown to decrease in the long-term by 58% as vaccinated individuals get older and finally reach age-classes with originally high HZ incidence. Despite substantial uncertainties around several key variables, the models results provide valuable insights that support decision-making regarding national VZV vaccination strategies.