Rafael T. Mikolajczyk

Social Contacts and Mixing Patterns Relevant to the Spread of Infectious Diseases

Background Mathematical modelling of infectious diseases transmitted by the respiratory or close-contact route (e.g., pandemic influenza) is increasingly being used to determine the impact of possible interventions. Although mixing patterns are known to be crucial determinants for model outcome, researchers often rely on a priori contact assumptions with little or no empirical basis. We conducted a population-based prospective survey of mixing patterns in eight European countries using a common paper-diary methodology. Methods and Findings 7,290 participants recorded characteristics of 97,904 contacts with different individuals during one day, including age, sex, location, duration, frequency, and occurrence of physical contact. We found that mixing patterns and contact characteristics were remarkably similar across different European countries. Contact patterns were highly assortative with age: schoolchildren and young adults in particular tended to mix with people of the same age. Contacts lasting at least one hour or occurring on a daily basis mostly involved physical contact, while short duration and infrequent contacts tended to be nonphysical. Contacts at home, school, or leisure were more likely to be physical than contacts at the workplace or while travelling. Preliminary modelling indicates that 5- to 19-year-olds are expected to suffer the highest incidence during the initial epidemic phase of an emerging infection transmitted through social contacts measured here when the population is completely susceptible. Conclusions To our knowledge, our study provides the first large-scale quantitative approach to contact patterns relevant for infections transmitted by the respiratory or close-contact route, and the results should lead to improved parameterisation of mathematical models used to design control strategies.

Estimations of worldwide prevalence of chronic hepatitis B virus infection: a systematic review of data published between 1965 and 2013

BACKGROUND The quantification of the burden of disease attributable to hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and the adaptation of prevention and control measures requires knowledge on its prevalence in the general population. For most countries such data are not routinely available. We estimated the national, regional, and global prevalence of chronic HBV infection. METHODS For this systematic review and pooled analysis, we searched for data on prevalence of chronic HBV infection published between Jan 1, 1965, and Oct 23, 2013, in the databases Medline, Embase, CAB Abstracts (Global health), Popline, and Web of Science. We included studies reporting the hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) serological marker of chronic HBV infection in non-high-risk groups and extracted data into a customised database. For each country, we calculated HBsAg prevalence estimates and 95% CIs weighted by study size. We extrapolated prevalence estimates to population sizes in 2010 to obtain the number of individuals with chronic HBV infection. FINDINGS Of the 17,029 records screened, 1800 report on the prevalence of HBsAg covering 161 countries were included. HBsAg seroprevalence was 3·61% (95% CI 3·61-3·61) worldwide with highest endemicity in countries of the African region (total 8·83%, 8·82-8·83) and Western Pacific region (total 5·26%, 5·26-5·26). Within WHO regions, prevalence ranged from 0·20% (0·19-0·21; Mexico) to 13·55% (9·00-19·89; Haiti) in the Americas, to 0·48% (0·12-1·90; the Seychelles) to 22·38% (20·10-24·83; South Sudan) in the African region. We estimated that in 2010, globally, about 248 million individuals were HBsAg positive. INTERPRETATION This first global assessment of country-level population prevalence of chronic HBV infection found a wide variation between countries and highlights the need for continued prevention and control strategies and the collection of reliable epidemiologic data using standardised methodology. FUNDING World Health Organization.

A global reference for fetal-weight and birthweight percentiles

BACKGROUND Definition of small for gestational age in various populations worldwide remains a challenge. References based on birthweight are deficient for preterm births, those derived from ultrasound estimates might not be applicable to all populations, and the individualised reference can be too complex to use in developing countries. Our aim was to create a generic reference for fetal weight and birthweight that overcame these deficiencies and could be readily adapted to local populations. METHODS We used the fetal-weight reference developed by Hadlock and colleagues and the notion of proportionality proposed by Gardosi and colleagues and made the weight reference easily adjustable according to the mean birthweight at 40 weeks of gestation for any local population. For application and validation, we used data from 24 countries in Africa, Latin America, and Asia that participated in the 2004-08 WHO Global Survey on Maternal and Perinatal Health (237,025 births). We compared our reference with that of Hadlock and colleagues (non-customised) and with that of Gardosi and colleagues (individualised). For every reference, the odds ratio (OR) of adverse perinatal outcomes (stillbirths, neonatal deaths, referral to higher-level or special care unit, or Apgar score lower than 7 at 5 min) for infants who were small for gestational age versus those who were not was estimated with multilevel logistic regression. FINDINGS OR of adverse outcomes for infants small for gestational age versus those not small for gestational age was 1·59 (95% CI 1·53-1·66) for the non-customised fetal-weight reference compared with 2·87 (2·73-3·01) for our country-specific reference, and 2·84 (2·71-2·99) for the fully individualised reference. INTERPRETATION Our generic reference for fetal-weight and birthweight percentiles can be easily adapted to local populations. It has a better ability to predict adverse perinatal outcomes than has the non-customised fetal-weight reference, and is simpler to use than the individualised reference without loss of predictive ability. FUNDING None.

Food consumption frequency and perceived stress and depressive symptoms among students in three European countries

BackgroundCertain foods might be more frequently eaten under stress or when higher levels of depressive symptoms are experienced. We examined whether poor nutritional habits are associated with stress and depressive symptoms and whether the relationships differ by country and gender in a sample from three European countries collected as part of a Cross National Student Health Survey.MethodsA cross-sectional survey was conducted among first-year students in Germany (N = 696), Poland (N = 489) and Bulgaria (N = 654). Self-administered questionnaires included a 12-item food frequency questionnaire, Cohens Perceived Stress Scale, and a modified Beck Depression Index. Linear regression analyses were conducted for two outcomes, perceived stress and depressive symptoms.ResultsFood consumption frequencies differed by country and gender, as did depressive symptoms and perceived stress. For male students, none of the food consumption groups were associated with perceived stress or depressive symptoms. In females, perceived stress was associated with more frequent consumption of sweets/fast foods and less frequent consumption of fruits/vegetables. Additionally, depressive symptoms were associated with less frequent consumption of fruits/vegetables and meat.ConclusionOur data show consistent associations between unhealthy food consumption and depressive symptoms and perceived stress among female students from three European countries, but not among male students. This suggests that efforts to reduce depressive symptoms and stress among female students may also lead to the consumption of healthier foods and/or vice-versa.

Epidemiological Study of Anti-HPV16/18 Seropositivity and Subsequent Risk of HPV16 and -18 Infections

BACKGROUND Infection with human papillomavirus (HPV) 16 or HPV18 elicits an antibody response, but whether the elicited antibodies protect women against subsequent infection by a homologous HPV type compared with seronegative women is unknown. METHODS Study participants were women aged 18-25 years at enrollment in the control group of the ongoing National Cancer Institute-sponsored, community-based, randomized HPV16/18 Costa Rica Vaccine Trial. At enrollment, 2813 participants were negative for cervical HPV16 DNA and 2950 for HPV18 DNA. Women were interviewed regarding sociodemographic data and medical and health history. Medical and pelvic examinations were conducted for all consenting sexually experienced women. Serum samples taken at enrollment were tested for total HPV16/18 antibodies with a polyclonal enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, and cervical specimens were tested for type-specific HPV DNA over 4 years of follow-up. Using Poisson regression, we compared rate ratios of newly detected cervical HPV16 or HPV18 infection among homologous HPV-seropositive and HPV-seronegative women, adjusting for age, education, marital status, lifetime number of sexual partners, and smoking. RESULTS There were 231 newly detected HPV16 infections during 5886 person-years among HPV16-seronegative women compared with 12 newly detected HPV16 infections during 581 person-years among HPV16-seropositive women with the highest HPV16 sero-levels. There were 136 newly detected HPV18 infections during 6352 person-years among HPV18-seronegative women compared with six new infections detected during 675 person-years among HPV18 seropositives with the highest sero-levels. After controlling for risk factors associated with newly detected HPV infection, having high HPV16 antibody titer at enrollment was associated with a reduced risk of subsequent HPV16 infection (women in the highest tertile of HPV16 antibody titers, adjusted rate ratio = 0.50, 95% confidence interval = 0.26 to 0.86 vs HPV16-seronegative women). Similarly, having high HPV18 antibody titer at enrollment was associated with a reduced risk of subsequent HPV18 infection (women in the highest tertile of HPV18 antibody titers, adjusted rate ratio = 0.36, 95% confidence interval = 0.14 to 0.76 vs HPV18-seronegative women). CONCLUSION In this study population, having high antibody levels against HPV16 and HPV18 following natural infection was associated with reduced risk of subsequent HPV16 and HPV18 infections.

The natural history of the normal first stage of labor.

OBJECTIVE: To examine labor patterns in a large population and to explore an alternative approach for diagnosing abnormal labor progression. METHODS: Data from the National Collaborative Perinatal Project were used. A total of 26,838 parturients were selected who had a singleton term gestation, spontaneous onset of labor, vertex presentation, and a normal perinatal outcome. A repeated-measures analysis was used to construct average labor curves by parity. An interval-censored regression was used to estimate duration of labor stratified by cervical dilation at admission and centimeter by centimeter. RESULTS: The median time needed to progress from one centimeter to the next became shorter as labor advanced (eg, from 1.2 hours at 3–4 cm to 0.4 hours at 7–8 cm in nulliparas). Nulliparous women had the longest and most gradual labor curve; multiparous women of different parities had very similar curves. Nulliparas may start the active phase after 5 cm of cervical dilation and may not necessarily have a clear active phase characterized by precipitous dilation. The deceleration phase in the late active phase of labor may be an artifact in many cases. CONCLUSION: The active phase of labor may not start until 5 cm of cervical dilation in multiparas and even later in nulliparas. A 2-hour threshold for diagnosing labor arrest may be too short before 6 cm of dilation, whereas a 4-hour limit may be too long after 6 cm. Given that cervical dilation accelerates as labor advances, a graduated approach based on levels of cervical dilation to diagnose labor protraction and arrest is proposed. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: III

Social contacts of school children and the transmission of respiratory-spread pathogens

Empirical data about contact frequencies of children is needed for estimating parameters in mathematical modelling studies that investigate the effect of targeting influenza intervention to children. A survey about the social contacts of school children was conducted in a primary school in Germany. The distribution of the daily numbers of contacts was stratified by age of the contacted person and by weekday. A negative binomial regression analysis was performed to investigate factors that influence contact behaviour. Using logistic regression analysis we examined the relationship between the numbers of private contacts and having been ill in the last 6 months. We computed effective contact numbers to take the heterogeneity in contact behaviour into account in assessing the contribution of childrens contacts to the overall transmission of an infection. The possible effects of intervention measures such as school closure and vaccination on the transmission of respiratory-spread agents to other age groups are discussed.

Relationships between food consumption and living arrangements among university students in four European countries - A cross-sectional study

BackgroundThe transition of young people from school to university has many health implications. Food choice at the university can differ because of childhood food consumption patterns, sex and the living arrangements. Food consumption may change especially if students are living away from home. We aimed to assess food consumption patterns among university students from four European countries and how they differ by their living arrangements.MethodsWe analysed data from a cross-country survey assessing health and health behaviours of students. The sample comprised a total of 2402 first year undergraduate students from one university in each of the countries of Germany, Denmark, Poland and Bulgaria. Food consumption was assessed by means of a food frequency questionnaire with 9 food groups (indicators).ResultsStudents’ food consumption patterns differed across the countries. Frequent consumption of unhealthy items was common. Bulgarian students reported most often frequent consumption of sweets and cakes and snacks (e.g. chips and fast food). Polish students reported the least frequent consumption of vegetables and a low consumption of fruits. Across all countries except Bulgaria, men reported substantially more often frequent consumption of snacks than women. Students living at parental home consumed more fruit, vegetables, and meat than those who resided outside of their family home in all studied countries. There was more variation with regard to cakes and salads with more frequent consumption of cakes among Bulgarian female students and Danish male students and more frequent consumption of salads among Danish female students not living at parental home, compared to students from other countries.ConclusionsNutrition habits of university students differed across countries and by sex. Students living at parental home displayed more healthy nutrition habits, with some exceptions.

What is the optimal rate of caesarean section at population level? A systematic review of ecologic studies

In 1985, WHO stated that there was no justification for caesarean section (CS) rates higher than 10–15 % at population-level. While the CS rates worldwide have continued to increase in an unprecedented manner over the subsequent three decades, concern has been raised about the validity of the 1985 landmark statement. We conducted a systematic review to identify, critically appraise and synthesize the analyses of the ecologic association between CS rates and maternal, neonatal and infant outcomes. Four electronic databases were searched for ecologic studies published between 2000 and 2014 that analysed the possible association between CS rates and maternal, neonatal or infant mortality or morbidity. Two reviewers performed study selection, data extraction and quality assessment independently. We identified 11,832 unique citations and eight studies were included in the review. Seven studies correlated CS rates with maternal mortality, five with neonatal mortality, four with infant mortality, two with LBW and one with stillbirths. Except for one, all studies were cross-sectional in design and five were global analyses of national-level CS rates versus mortality outcomes. Although the overall quality of the studies was acceptable; only two studies controlled for socio-economic factors and none controlled for clinical or demographic characteristics of the population. In unadjusted analyses, authors found a strong inverse relationship between CS rates and the mortality outcomes so that maternal, neonatal and infant mortality decrease as CS rates increase up to a certain threshold. In the eight studies included in this review, this threshold was at CS rates between 9 and 16 %. However, in the two studies that adjusted for socio-economic factors, this relationship was either weakened or disappeared after controlling for these confounders. CS rates above the threshold of 9–16 % were not associated with decreases in mortality outcomes regardless of adjustments. Our findings could be interpreted to mean that at CS rates below this threshold, socio-economic development may be driving the ecologic association between CS rates and mortality. On the other hand, at rates higher than this threshold, there is no association between CS and mortality outcomes regardless of adjustment. The ecological association between CS rates and relevant morbidity outcomes needs to be evaluated before drawing more definite conclusions at population level.

Health-related quality of life in diabetic patients and controls without diabetes in refugee camps in the Gaza strip: a cross-sectional study

BackgroundPrevalence of diabetes mellitus is increasing in developed and developing countries. Diabetes is known to strongly affect the health-related quality of life (HRQOL). HRQOL is also influenced by living conditions. We analysed the effects of having diabetes on HRQOL under the living conditions in refugee camps in the Gaza strip.MethodsWe studied a sample of 197 diabetic patients who were recruited from three refugee camps in the Gaza strip and 197 age- and sex-matched controls living in the same camps. To assess HRQOL, we used the World Health Organization Quality of Life questionnaire (WHOQOL-BREF) including four domains (physical health, psychological, social relations and environment). Domain scores were compared for cases (diabetic patients) and controls (persons without diabetes) and the impact of socio-economic factors was evaluated in both groups.ResultsAll domains were strongly reduced in diabetic patients as compared to controls, with stronger effects in physical health (36.7 vs. 75.9 points of the 0–100 score) and psychological domains (34.8 vs. 70.0) and weaker effects in social relationships (52.4 vs. 71.4) and environment domains (23.4 vs. 36.2). The impact of diabetes on HRQOL was especially severe among females and older subjects (above 50 years). Low socioeconomic status had a strong negative impact on HRQOL in the younger age group (<50 years).ConclusionHRQOL is strongly reduced in diabetic patients living in refugee camps in the Gaza strip. Women and older patients are especially affected.