Matthew C. Larsen

The frequency and distribution of recent landslides in three montane tropical regions of Puerto Rico

Landslides are common in steep mountainous areas of Puerto Rico where mean annual rainfall and the frequency of intense storms are high. Each year, landslides cause extensive damage to property and occasionally result in loss of life. Average population density is high, 422 people/km2, and is increasing. This increase in population density is accompanied by growing stress on the natural environment and physical infrastructure. As a result, human populations are more vulnerable to landslide hazards. The Blanco, Cibuco, and Coamo study areas range in surface area from 276 to 350 km2 and represent the climatologic, geographic, and geologic conditions that typify Puerto Rico. Maps of recent landslides developed from 1:20,000-scale aerial photographs, in combination with a computerized geographic information system, were used to evaluate the frequency and distribution of shallow landslides in these areas. Several types of landslides were documented—rainfall-triggered debris flows, shallow soil slips, and slumps were most abundant. Hillslopes in the study area that have been anthropogenically modified, exceed 12° in gradient, are greater than 300 m in elevation, and face the east-northeast, are most prone to landsliding. A set of simplified matrices representing geographic conditions in the three study areas was developed and provides a basis for the estimation of the spatial controls on the frequency of landslides in Puerto Rico. This approach is an example of an analysis of the frequency of landslides that is computationally simple, and therefore, may be easily transferable to other settings.

DETERMINATION OF PREDEVELOPMENT DENUDATION RATES OF AN AGRICULTURAL WATERSHED (CAYAGUAS RIVER, PUERTO RICO) USING IN-SITU-PRODUCED 10BE IN RIVER-BORNE QUARTZ

Accurate estimates of watershed denudation absent anthropogenic effects are required to develop strategies for mitigating accelerated physical erosion resulting from human activities, to model global geochemical cycles, and to examine interactions among climate, weathering, and uplift. We present a simple approach to estimate predevelopment denudation rates using in-situ-produced cosmogenic 10Be in fluvial sediments. Denudation processes in an agricultural watershed (Cayaguas River Basin, Puerto Rico) and a matched undisturbed watershed (Icacos River Basin) were compared using 10Be concentrations in quartz for various size fractions of bed material. The coarse fractions in both watersheds bear the imprint of long subsurface residence times. Fine material from old shallow soils contributes little, however, to the present-day sediment output of the Cayaguas. This confirms the recent and presumably anthropogenic origin of the modern high denudation rate in the Cayaguas Basin and suggests that pre-agricultural erosional conditions were comparable to those of the present-day Icacos.

SLOPEWASH, SURFACE RUNOFF AND FINE-LITTER TRANSPORT IN FOREST AND LANDSLIDE SCARS IN HUMID- TROPICAL STEEPLANDS, LUQUILLO EXPERIMENTAL FOREST, PUERTO RICO

Rainfall, slopewash (the erosion of soil particles), surface runoff and fine-litter transport at humid-tropical steepland sites in the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico (188 20’ N, 658 45’ W) were measured from 1991 to 1995. Hillslopes underlain by (1) Cretaceous tuffaceous sandstone and siltstone in subtropical rain (tabonuco) forest with vegetation recovering from Hurricane Hugo (1989), and (2) Tertiary quartz diorite in subtropical lower montane wet (colorado and dwarf) forest with undisturbed forest canopy were compared to recent landslide scars. Monthly surface runoff on these very steep hillslopes (248 to 438) was only 0·2 to 0·5 per cent of monthly rainfall. Slopewash was higher in sandy loam soils whose parent material is quartz diorite (averaging 46 g m -2 a -1 ) than in silty clay loam soils derived from tuffaceous sandstone and siltstone where the average was 9gm -2 a -1 . Annual slopewash of 100 to 349 gm -2 on the surfaces of two recent, small landslide scars was measured initially but slopewash decreased to only 3 to 4 g m -2 a -1 by the end of the study. The mean annual mass of fine litter (mainly leaves and twigs) transported downslope at the forested sites ranged from 5 to 8 g m -2 and was lower at the tabonuco forest site, where post-Hurricane Hugo recovery is still in progress. Mean annual fine-litter transport was 2·5gm -2 on the two landslide scars. Copyright # 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

ANALYSIS OF 20TH CENTURY RAINFALL AND STREAMFLOW TO CHARACTERIZE DROUGHT AND WATER RESOURCES IN PUERTO RICO

During the period from 1990 to 1997, annual rainfall accumulation averaged 87% of normal at the 12 stations with the longest period of record in Puerto Rico, a Caribbean island with a 1999 population of 3.8 million. Streamflow in rivers supplying the La Plata and Loíza reservoirs, the principal water supply of the San Juan metropolitan area, was at or below the 10th flow percentile for 27% to 50% of the time between December 1993 and May 1996. Diminished reservoir levels in 1994 and 1995 affected more than 1 million people in the San Juan metropolitan area. Water rationing was implemented during this period and significant agricultural losses, valued at

Potential Effects of Runoff, Fluvial Sediment, and Nutrient Discharges on the Coral Reefs of Puerto Rico

165 million, were recorded in 1994. The public endured a year of mandatory water rationing in which sections of the city had their water-distribution networks shut off for 24 to 36 hours on alternate days. During the winter and spring of 1997–1998, water was rationed to more than 200,000 people in northwestern Puerto Rico because water level in the Guajataca reservoir was well below normal for two years because of rainfall deficits. The drought period of 1993–1996 was comparable in magnitude to a drought in 1966–1968, but water rationing was more severe during the 1993–1996 period, indicating that water management issues such as demand, storage capacity, water production and losses, and per capita consumption are increasingly important as population and development in Puerto Rico expand. [Key words: drought, streamflow, water resources, Caribbean, Puerto Rico, rainfall, water supply.]

The Hurricane-flood-landslide continuum

Abstract Coral reefs, the foundation and primary structure of many highly productive and diverse tropical marine ecosystems, have been degraded by human activity in much of the earths tropical oceans. To contribute to improved understanding of this problem, the potential relation between river sediment and nutrient discharges and degradation of coral reefs surrounding Puerto Rico was studied using streamflow, suspended-sediment, and water-quality data. Mean annual runoff for the 8711 km2 island is 911 mm, about 57% of mean annual precipitation (1600 mm). Mean annual suspended-sediment discharge from Puerto Rico to coastal waters is estimated at 2.7–9.0 million metric tonnes. Storm runoff transports a substantial part of sediment: the highest recorded daily sediment discharge is 1–3.6 times the mean annual sediment discharge. Hurricane Georges (1998) distributed an average of 300 mm of rain across the island, equivalent to a volume of about 2.6 billion m3. Runoff of more than 1.0 billion m3 of water and as much as 5 to 10 million metric tonnes of sediment were discharged to the coast and shelf. Nitrogen and phosphorous concentrations in river waters are as much as 10 times the estimated presettlement levels. Fecal coliform and fecal streptococcus concentrations in many Puerto Rico rivers are near or above regulatory limits. Unlike sediment discharges, which are predominantly episodic and intense, river-borne nutrient and fecal discharge is a less-intense but chronic stressor to coral reefs found near the mouths of rivers. Negative effects of river-derived sediment and nutrient discharge on coral reefs are especially pronounced on the north, southwest, and west coasts.

Water quality status and trends in the United States

In August 2004, representatives from NOAA, NASA, the USGS, and other government agencies convened in San Juan, Puerto Rim for a workshop to discuss a proposed research project called the Hurricane-Flood-Landslide Continuum (HFLC). The essence of the HFLC is to develop and integrate tools across disciplines to enable the issuance of regional guidance products for floods and landslides associated with major tropical rain systems, with sufficient lead time that local emergency managers can protect vulnerable populations and infrastructure. All three lead agencies are independently developing precipitation-flood-debris flow forecasting technologies, and all have a history of work on natural hazards both domestically and overseas. NOM has the capability to provide tracking and prediction of storm rainfall, trajectory and landfall and is developing flood probability and magnTtude capabilities. The USGS has the capability to evaluate the ambient stability of natural and man-made landforms, to assess landslide susceptibilities for those landforms, and to establish probabilities for initiation of landslides and debris flows. Additionally, the USGS has well-developed operational capacity for real-time monitoring and reporting of streamflow across distributed networks of automated gaging stations (http://water.usgs.gov/waterwatch/). NASA has the capability to provide sophisticated algorithms for satellite remote sensing of precipitation, land use, and in the future, soil moisture. The Workshop sought to initiate discussion among three agencies regarding their specific and highly complimentary capabilities. The fundamental goal of the Workshop was to establish a framework that will leverage the strengths of each agency. Once a prototype system is developed for example, in relatively data-rich Puerto Rim, it could be adapted for use in data-poor, low-infrastructure regions such as the Dominican Republic or Haiti. This paper provides an overview of the Workshop s goals, presentations and recommendations with respect to the development of the HFLC.

Rainfall-induced landslides in Puerto Rico: An overview

Information about water quality is vital to ensure long-term availability and sustainability of water that is safe for drinking and recreation and suitable for industry, irrigation, fish, and wildlife. Protecting and enhancing water quality is a national priority, requiring information on water-quality status and trends, progress toward clean water standards, continuing problems, and emerging challenges. In this brief review, we discuss U.S. Geological Survey assessments of nutrient pollution, pesticides, mixtures of organic wastewater compounds (known as emerging contaminants), sediment-bound contaminants (like lead and DDT), and mercury, among other contaminants. Additionally, aspects of land use and current and emerging challenges associated with climate change are presented. Climate change must be considered, as water managers continue their efforts to maintain sufficient water of good quality for humans and for the ecosystem.

Introduction to Weathering and Slope Movement papers

Rainfall-induced landslides are common in Puerto Rico (PR). The presence of steep slopes in mountainous terrain, coupled with weathered soils and intense rainfall, leads to severe slope-stability problems throughout the island. Episodic triggering events such as hurricanes and earthquakes further exacerbate these problems. All physiographic provinces of the island have experienced landslides. The stability of natural and man-made slopes is a serious concern for government authorities and the civil engineering community in Puerto Rico. This paper presents an overview of the rainfall induced landslide problem in PR, a summary of existing literature published on this subject, and proposes a rainfall intensity landslide threshold based on landslide events data from 1959 to 2003. This threshold can be used as a potential landslide warning criterion.

Global Change and Water Availability and Quality: Challenges Ahead

Weathering includes all the processes of chemicalalteration and physical breakdown of rock masses at, or near, the Earths surface. Intense and/or continuous weathering processes may result in thick sequences of complex and heterogenous materials characterized by physical and geotechnical properties which have been strongly altered by the action of weathering. As a consequence, they may be prone to slope failures,erosion and landslides. In addition, availability of large amounts of weathered materials and loose debris in catchment basins may represent a serious hazard during, or following, intense rainfall, contributing significantly to the transport of sediment and debris during floods. Landslides in weathered materials occur in many different geological, morphological and environmental settings: shallow and rapid landslides (mostly soil slips evolving into debris flows) are among the most common type of slope movements, although large, deep-seated landslides also …