John Acquavella

Hospitalisation for venous thromboembolism in cancer patients and the general population: a population-based cohort study in Denmark, 1997-2006.

Background:Venous thromboembolism (VTE) frequently complicates cancer. Data on tumour-specific VTE predictors are limited, but may inform strategies to prevent thrombosis.Methods:We computed incidence rates (IRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for VTE hospitalisation in a cohort of cancer patients (n=57 591) and in a comparison general-population cohort (n=287 476) in Denmark. The subjects entered the study in 1997–2005, and the follow-up continued through 2006. Using Cox proportional-hazards regression, we estimated relative risks (RRs) for VTE predictors, while adjusting for comorbidity.Results:Throughout the follow-up, VTE IR was higher among the cancer patients (IR=8.0, 95% CI=7.6–8.5) than the general population (IR=4.7, 95% CI=4.3–5.1), particularly in the first year after cancer diagnosis (IR=15.0, 95% CI=13.8–16.2, vs IR=8.6, 95% CI=7.6–9.9). Incidence rates of VTE were highest in patients with pancreas (IR=40.9, 95% CI=29.5–56.7), brain (IR=17.7, 95% CI=11.3–27.8) or liver (IR=20.4, 95% CI=9.2–45.3) tumours, multiple myeloma (IR=22.6, 95% CI=15.4–33.2) and among patients with advanced-stage cancers (IR=27.7, 95% CI=24.0–32.0) or those who received chemotherapy or no/symptomatic treatment. The adjusted RR (aRR) for VTE was highest among patients with pancreas (aRR=16.3, 95% CI=8.1–32.6) or brain cancer (aRR=19.8 95% CI=7.1–55.2), multiple myeloma (aRR=46.1, 95% CI=13.1–162.0) and among patients receiving chemotherapy, either alone (aRR=18.5, 95% CI=11.9–28.7) or in combination treatments (aRR=16.2, 95% CI=12.0–21.7).Conclusions:Risk of VTE is higher among cancer patients than in the general population. Predictors of VTE include recency of cancer diagnosis, cancer site, stage and the type of cancer-directed treatment.

Estimated number of prevalent cases of metastatic bone disease in the US adult population.

Background The prevalence of metastatic bone disease in the US population is not well understood. We sought to estimate the current number of US adults with metastatic bone disease using two large administrative data sets. Methods Prevalence was estimated from a commercially insured cohort (ages 18–64 years, MarketScan database) and from a fee-for-service Medicare cohort (ages ≥65 years, Medicare 5% database) with coverage on December 31, 2008, representing approximately two-thirds of the US population in each age group. We searched for claims-based evidence of metastatic bone disease from January 1, 2004, using a combination of relevant diagnosis and treatment codes. The number of cases in the US adult population was extrapolated from age- and sex-specific prevalence estimated in these cohorts. Results are presented for all cancers combined and separately for primary breast, prostate, and lung cancer. Results In the commercially insured cohort (mean age = 42.3 years [SD = 13.1]), we identified 9505 patients (0.052%) with metastatic bone disease. Breast cancer was the most common primary tumor type (n = 4041). In the Medicare cohort (mean age = 75.6 years [SD = 7.8]), we identified 6427 (0.495%) patients with metastatic bone disease. Breast (n = 1798) and prostate (n = 1862) cancers were the most common primary tumor types. We estimate that 279,679 (95% confidence interval: 274,579–284,780) US adults alive on December 31, 2008, had evidence of metastatic bone disease in the previous 5 years. Breast, prostate, and lung cancers accounted for 68% of these cases. Conclusion Our findings suggest that approximately 280,000 US adults were living with metastatic bone disease on December 31, 2008. This likely underestimates the true frequency; not all cases of metastatic bone disease are diagnosed, and some diagnosed cases might lack documentation in claims data.

Relationship between Epoetin Alfa Dose and Mortality: Findings from a Marginal Structural Model

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES Observational studies relating epoetin alfa (EPO) dose and mortality frequently use analytic methods that do not control time-dependent confounding by indication (CBI). The relationship between EPO dose and 1-year mortality, adjusting for the effects of time-dependent CBI, was examined using a marginal structural model. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS This retrospective cohort study included 27,791 hemodialysis patients between July 2000 and June 2002. Patients were grouped at successive 2-wk intervals into a zero-dose category or four nonzero-dose categories. Ordinal regression was used to calculate inverse probability of treatment weights of patients receiving their own dose level given their covariate and treatment history. Three treatment models with an increasing number of treatment predictors were evaluated to assess the effect of model specification. A small number of excessively large patient weights were truncated. Relative hazards for higher-dose groups compared with the lowest nonzero-dose group varied by treatment model specification and by level of weight truncation. RESULTS Results differed appreciably between the simplest treatment model, which incorporated only hemoglobin and EPO dosing history with 2% weight truncation (hazard ratio: 1.51; 95% confidence interval: 1.09, 1.89 for highest-dose patients), and the most comprehensive treatment model with 1% weight truncation (hazard ratio: 0.98; 95% confidence interval: 0.76, 1.74). CONCLUSIONS There is appreciable CBI at higher EPO doses, and EPO dose was not associated with increased mortality in marginal structural model analyses that more completely addressed this confounding.

Timing of androgen deprivation therapy use and fracture risk among elderly men with prostate cancer in the United States.

Fractures are a recognized consequence of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT); however, less is known about the incidence of fracture in relation to the timing of ADT use or the impact of fracture on mortality in men with prostate cancer.

Evolving Statistical Methods to Facilitate Evaluation of the Causal Association Between Erythropoiesis-Stimulating Agent Dose and Mortality in Nonexperimental Research: Strengths and Limitations

Findings from randomized controlled trials examining the efficacy of therapy with erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs) to normalize hemoglobin levels in patients with chronic kidney disease or kidney failure have raised questions regarding the safety of this class of drugs. However, no trial to date has specifically assessed the safety of ESA-dosing algorithms used to achieve the lower hemoglobin targets typically using in clinical practice. Although a wealth of nonexperimental data is available for dialysis patients, analyses based on these data are more susceptible to confounding bias than randomized controlled trials. Conducting valid pharmacoepidemiologic studies of drug effects in hemodialysis patients is complicated by the extent of their comorbidities, frequent hospitalizations, various concomitant medications, and an exceedingly high mortality rate. The need for greater ESA doses for the treatment of anemia in sicker patients potentially and plausibly generates confounding by indication, the control of which is complicated by the presence of time-dependent confounding. Here, we describe sources of bias in nonexperimental studies of ESA therapy in hemodialysis patients and critically appraise analytical methods that may help minimize bias in such studies.

A review of the carcinogenic potential of glyphosate by four independent expert panels and comparison to the IARC assessment

Abstract The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) published a monograph in 2015 concluding that glyphosate is “probably carcinogenic to humans” (Group 2A) based on limited evidence in humans and sufficient evidence in experimental animals. It was also concluded that there was strong evidence of genotoxicity and oxidative stress. Four Expert Panels have been convened for the purpose of conducting a detailed critique of the evidence in light of IARC’s assessment and to review all relevant information pertaining to glyphosate exposure, animal carcinogenicity, genotoxicity, and epidemiologic studies. Two of the Panels (animal bioassay and genetic toxicology) also provided a critique of the IARC position with respect to conclusions made in these areas. The incidences of neoplasms in the animal bioassays were found not to be associated with glyphosate exposure on the basis that they lacked statistical strength, were inconsistent across studies, lacked dose-response relationships, were not associated with preneoplasia, and/or were not plausible from a mechanistic perspective. The overall weight of evidence from the genetic toxicology data supports a conclusion that glyphosate (including GBFs and AMPA) does not pose a genotoxic hazard and therefore, should not be considered support for the classification of glyphosate as a genotoxic carcinogen. The assessment of the epidemiological data found that the data do not support a causal relationship between glyphosate exposure and non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma while the data were judged to be too sparse to assess a potential relationship between glyphosate exposure and multiple myeloma. As a result, following the review of the totality of the evidence, the Panels concluded that the data do not support IARC’s conclusion that glyphosate is a “probable human carcinogen” and, consistent with previous regulatory assessments, further concluded that glyphosate is unlikely to pose a carcinogenic risk to humans.

Positive predictive value of primary inpatient discharge diagnoses of infection among cancer patients in the Danish National Registry of Patients.

PURPOSE Pharmacovigilance studies of cancer treatment frequently monitor infections. Predictive values of algorithms identifying disease depend on prevalence of the disease in the population under study. We therefore estimated the positive predictive value (PPV) of primary inpatient diagnosis of infection among cancer patients in the Danish National Registry of Patients (DNRP). METHODS The algorithm to identify infections in the DNPR was based on International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision (ICD-10) codes. A physician blinded to the type of sampled infection reviewed the medical charts and assessed the presence and type of infection. Using the physician global assessment as gold standard, we computed PPVs with and without requiring agreement on infection type. RESULTS We retrieved 266 of 272 medical charts (98%). Presence of infection was confirmed in 261 patients, resulting in an overall PPV of 98% (95% confidence interval, 96%-99%). When requiring agreement on infection type, overall PPV was 77%. For skin infections, pneumonia, and sepsis, PPVs were 79%, 93% and 84%, respectively. For these infections, we additionally calculated PPVs using evidence-based criteria as the gold standard. PPV was similar for pneumonia, but lower for skin infections and sepsis. CONCLUSIONS The Danish National Registry of Patients is suitable for monitoring infections requiring hospitalization among cancer patients.

Glyphosate epidemiology expert panel review: a weight of evidence systematic review of the relationship between glyphosate exposure and non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma or multiple myeloma

Abstract We conducted a systematic review of the epidemiologic literature for glyphosate focusing on non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma (NHL) and multiple myeloma (MM) – two cancers that were the focus of a recent review by an International Agency for Research on Cancer Working Group. Our approach was consistent with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines for systematic reviews. We evaluated each relevant study according to a priori criteria for study quality: adequacy of study size, likelihood of confounding, potential for other biases and adequacy of the statistical analyses. Our evaluation included seven unique studies for NHL and four for MM, all but one of which were case control studies for each cancer. For NHL, the case-control studies were all limited by the potential for recall bias and the lack of adequate multivariate adjustment for multiple pesticide and other farming exposures. Only the Agricultural Health (cohort) Study met our a priori quality standards and this study found no evidence of an association between glyphosate and NHL. For MM, the case control studies shared the same limitations as noted for the NHL case-control studies and, in aggregate, the data were too sparse to enable an informed causal judgment. Overall, our review did not find support in the epidemiologic literature for a causal association between glyphosate and NHL or MM.

Positive predictive value of the International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision, codes to identify osteonecrosis of the jaw in patients with cancer.

BACKGROUND Osteonecrosis of the jaw (ONJ) is an important adverse event associated with therapies suppressing bone turnover, especially in patients with high-dose regimens of antiresorptive therapy, such as cancer patients. Danish health registries are an important resource for monitoring side effects of drugs. The International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision (ICD-10), currently used in Denmark, does not have a specific code for ONJ, making it difficult to monitor its occurrence. OBJECTIVES To estimate the positive predictive value (PPV) for ONJ of currently used ICD-10 codes, suggested by Danish oral and maxillofacial surgeons, in order to assess feasibility of identification of ONJ cases among cancer patients in the Danish National Registry of Patients (DNRP). METHODS This study was conducted in northern Denmark (1.8 million inhabitants) among patients with a history of cancer. In Denmark ONJ cases are referred to hospital-based departments of oral and maxillofacial surgery (DOMS). In the DNRP, we identified patients with potential ONJ diagnosed at DOMS (as suggested by a series of ICD-10 codes) from 1 January 2005 to 31 December 2009. To confirm or rule out ONJ, we reviewed hospital records of these patients originating from DOMS. A confirmed ONJ case was defined by the presence of exposed maxillofacial bone for 8 weeks or more, in the absence of previous craniofacial radiation therapy. The PPV was the proportion of confirmed cases among all potential cases. RESULTS Among 85,910 eligible cancer patients, we identified 91 (0.11%) potential cases of ONJ, of which 18 were confirmed. The overall PPV was 20% (95% CI: 12-29%), ranging from 0% to50% for individual ICD-10 codes. CONCLUSIONS A majority of cases identified by the suggested ICD-10 codes did not fulfill the criteria for ONJ, even though the potential cases were identified at DOMS. Therefore, reliance on ICD-10 codes, without hospital chart review, will lead to an overestimation of the occurrence of ONJ among cancer patients.

Impact of Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services national coverage determination on erythropoiesis-stimulating agent and transfusion use in chemotherapy-treated cancer patients.

In July 2007, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services released a national coverage determination (NCD) for erythropoiesis‐stimulating agent (ESA) use in cancer patients, mandating payment restrictions likely to reduce ESA use and possibly increase red blood cell transfusions. We aimed to quantify ESA and transfusion use pre‐NCD and post‐NCD.