Shuling Li

Chronic Kidney Disease and the Risk for Cardiovascular Disease, Renal Replacement, and Death in the United States Medicare Population, 1998 to 1999

Knowledge of the excess risk posed by specific cardiovascular syndromes could help in the development of strategies to reduce premature mortality among patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). The rates of atherosclerotic vascular disease, congestive heart failure, renal replacement therapy, and death were compared in a 5% sample of the United States Medicare population in 1998 and 1999 (n = 1,091,201). Patients were divided into the following groups: 1, no diabetes, no CKD (79.7%); 2, diabetes, no CKD (16.5%); 3, CKD, no diabetes (2.2%); and 4, both CKD and diabetes (1.6%). During the 2 yr of follow-up, the rates (per 100 patient-years) in the four groups were as follows: atherosclerotic vascular disease, 14.1, 25.3, 35.7, and 49.1; congestive heart failure, 8.6, 18.5, 30.7, and 52.3; renal replacement therapy, 0.04, 0.2, 1.6, and 3.4; and death, 5.5, 8.1, 17.7, and 19.9, respectively (P < 0.0001). With use of Cox regression, the corresponding adjusted hazards ratios were as follows: atherosclerotic vascular disease, 1, 1.30, 1.16, and 1.41 (P < 0.0001); congestive heart failure, 1, 1.44, 1.28, and 1.79 (P < 0.0001); renal replacement therapy, 1, 2.52, 23.1, and 38.9 (P < 0.0001); and death, 1, 1.21, 1.38, and 1.56 (P < 0.0001). On a relative basis, patients with CKD were at a much greater risk for the least frequent study outcome, renal replacement therapy. On an absolute basis, however, the high death rates of patients with CKD may reflect accelerated rates of atherosclerotic vascular disease and congestive heart failure.

Excerpts From the US Renal Data System 2009 Annual Data Report

This 21st US Renal Data System Annual Data Report covers data through 2007, and again includes a section on chronic kidney disease (CKD) in the United States. Using NHANES and employer group health plan data, we estimate the relationship between kidney disease markers and mortality risk and the likelihood of blood pressure and lipid control by CKD stage; illustrate use of the new ICD-9-CM CKD diagnosis codes; and report on morbidity, mortality, care and costs during the transition to ESRD. New chapters address CKD patient care, the transition to ESRD, and acute kidney injury. In 2007, 111,000 patients started end-stage renal disease (ESRD) therapy, and the prevalent population reached 527,283 (including 368,544 dialysis patients); 17,513 transplants were performed, and 158,739 patients had a functioning graft at year’s end. Program expenditures reached

United States Renal Data System 2008 Annual Data Report Abstract

35.3 billion, with

Survival of dialysis patients after cardiac arrest and the impact of implantable cardioverter defibrillators

23.9 billion from Medicare (accounting for 5.8% of total Medicare expenditures). The incident rate fell 2.1%, to 354 per million. Fistula use in prevalent patients declined 2.6 percent; catheter use continues to be a concern. The percentage of patients with hemoglobin levels above 13 g/dl has fallen since 2006, but levels in the incident population frequently exceed 12. First-year mortality and morbidity among hemodialysis patients—particularly the increasing rate of hospitalizations due to infections—continue to be major concerns, and pediatric patient survival has not improved. The public health impact of kidney disease is larger than previously appreciated, and early detection, education, intervention, and risk factor control need to address the heavy burden of cardiovascular disease and adverse events in this vulnerable population.

Estimated number of prevalent cases of metastatic bone disease in the US adult population.

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Impact of Chronic Kidney Disease on Risk of Incident Atrial Fibrillation and Subsequent Survival in Medicare Patients

BACKGROUND Sudden cardiac death is the single largest cause of mortality in dialysis patients. There are no published data on the use or survival impact of implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs) in dialysis patients. The objective of this retrospective cohort study was to determine ICD use in dialysis patients and impact on survival. METHODS Dialysis patients hospitalized from 1996 to 2001 for ventricular fibrillation/cardiac arrest, having ICD implantation within 30 days of admission, discharged alive, and surviving at least 30 days from admission were identified from the 100% end-stage renal disease (ESRD) sample of the Medicare database. Long-term survival was estimated by life-table method. Impact of independent predictors on survival was examined in a comorbidity-adjusted Cox model and a propensity model. RESULTS There were 460 patients (7.6%) with ICD and 5582 patients (92.4%) without ICD. Estimated 1-, 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-year survivals after day 30 of admission in the ICD group were 71%, 53%, 36%, 25%, and 22%, respectively; in the no-ICD group, 49%, 33%, 23%, 16%, and 12% (P < 0.0001). ICD implantation was independently associated with a 42% reduction in death risk [relative risk 0.58 (95% CI 0.50, 0.66)]. In the propensity model, the relative risks of death for the lower, middle, and upper third propensity groups were 0.45 (0.26, 0.81), 0.61 (0.45, 0.84), and 0.65 (0.55, 0.76), respectively. The C statistic for the propensity model equaled 0.81. CONCLUSION In dialysis patients, ICD therapy is apparently underused. ICD implantation in cardiac arrest survivors on dialysis is associated with greater survival.

Risks of Death and End-Stage Renal Disease After Surgical Compared With Percutaneous Coronary Revascularization in Elderly Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease

Background The prevalence of metastatic bone disease in the US population is not well understood. We sought to estimate the current number of US adults with metastatic bone disease using two large administrative data sets. Methods Prevalence was estimated from a commercially insured cohort (ages 18–64 years, MarketScan database) and from a fee-for-service Medicare cohort (ages ≥65 years, Medicare 5% database) with coverage on December 31, 2008, representing approximately two-thirds of the US population in each age group. We searched for claims-based evidence of metastatic bone disease from January 1, 2004, using a combination of relevant diagnosis and treatment codes. The number of cases in the US adult population was extrapolated from age- and sex-specific prevalence estimated in these cohorts. Results are presented for all cancers combined and separately for primary breast, prostate, and lung cancer. Results In the commercially insured cohort (mean age = 42.3 years [SD = 13.1]), we identified 9505 patients (0.052%) with metastatic bone disease. Breast cancer was the most common primary tumor type (n = 4041). In the Medicare cohort (mean age = 75.6 years [SD = 7.8]), we identified 6427 (0.495%) patients with metastatic bone disease. Breast (n = 1798) and prostate (n = 1862) cancers were the most common primary tumor types. We estimate that 279,679 (95% confidence interval: 274,579–284,780) US adults alive on December 31, 2008, had evidence of metastatic bone disease in the previous 5 years. Breast, prostate, and lung cancers accounted for 68% of these cases. Conclusion Our findings suggest that approximately 280,000 US adults were living with metastatic bone disease on December 31, 2008. This likely underestimates the true frequency; not all cases of metastatic bone disease are diagnosed, and some diagnosed cases might lack documentation in claims data.

Trends in Hip Fracture Rates in US Hemodialysis Patients, 1993-2010

Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) are prevalent in the elderly and are independently associated with increased risk of death. We evaluated risk of incident AF with advancing CKD and examined the mortality rate associated with CKD after incident AF in elderly patients. Methods and Results This retrospective cohort study used the Medicare 5% database. Point-prevalent Medicare enrollees on December 31, 2006, without preexistent AF or end-stage renal disease were followed up for incident AF through 2008. CKD and AF were identified from International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification diagnosis codes. Associations between CKD stage and incident AF and subsequent risk of death were examined in a Cox proportional-hazards model. Unadjusted survival after incident AF was estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method. CKD was present in 55 962 patients (5.1% of the cohort). Of these, 4952 (8.8%) had CKD stages 1 and 2; 19 795 (35.3%), stages 3 to 5; and 31 215 (55.7%), unknown stage. The hazard ratio for incident AF in CKD stages 3 to 5 was 1.13 (95% confidence interval 1.09 to 1.18). Other stages were not independently associated with incident AF. Survival after incident AF decreased progressively as CKD stage increased (P<0.0001). The 1-year mortality rate for CKD stages 3 to 5 with incident AF was 35.6%. Adjusted hazard ratios for death after incident AF were 1.14 (95% confidence interval 1.00 to 1.30) for CKD stages 1 and 2, 1.27 (95% confidence interval 1.20 to 1.35) for CKD stages 3 to 5, and 1.29 (95% confidence interval 1.23 to 1.36) for unknown stage. Conclusions Advanced CKD is associated with increased risk of incident AF. In Medicare patients with incident AF, mortality rates are higher for those with advanced CKD than for those without CKD. (J Am Heart Assoc. 2012;1:e002097 doi: 10.1161/JAHA.112.002097.)

Survival of patients on dialysis having off-pump versus on-pump coronary artery bypass surgery in the United States.

Background and Purpose— Revascularization by coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery or percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is frequently deferred in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) to avoid precipitating end-stage renal disease (ESRD), but reliable estimates of absolute and relative risks of death and ESRD after CABG and PCI are unavailable. Methods and Results— CKD patients undergoing CABG (n=4547) or PCI (n=8620) were identified and tracked using the 5% Medicare sample. The cumulative incidence of ESRD and death were reported for observed events. A Cox model with the Fine-Gray method was used to account for competing risks in assessing relative hazards of death and ESRD. Three-year cumulative incidence of ESRD was lower (CABG, 6.8%; PCI, 5.4%) than death (CABG, 28.3%; PCI, 32.8%). The adjusted hazard ratio of death was higher during the first 3 months after CABG than after PCI (1.25; 95% confidence interval, 1.12–1.40; P<0.001), but lower from 6 months onward (0.61; 95% confidence interval, 0.55–0.69). Conversely, risk of ESRD after CABG was higher during the first 3 months (1.59; 95% confidence interval, 1.27–2.01; P<0.001), but was not statistically significant from 3 months onward. The adjusted hazard ratio of combined death or ESRD was similar to death. Conclusions— Among CKD patients undergoing coronary revascularization, death is more frequent than ESRD. The incidence of ESRD was lower throughout follow-up after PCI, but long-term risks of death or combined death and ESRD were lower after CABG. Our data suggest better overall clinical outcomes with CABG than with PCI in CKD patients.

Effects of Monthly Dose and Regular Dosing of Intravenous Active Vitamin D Use on Mortality Among Patients Undergoing Hemodialysis

BACKGROUND Changes in mineral and bone disorder treatment patterns and demographic changes in the dialysis population may have influenced hip fracture rates in US dialysis patients in 1993-2010. STUDY DESIGN Retrospective follow-up study analyzing trends over time in hospitalized hip fracture rates. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS Using Medicare data, we created 2 point-prevalent study cohorts for each study year. Hemodialysis cohorts included patients with Medicare as primary payer receiving hemodialysis in the United States on January 1 of each year; non-end-stage renal disease (ESRD) cohorts included Medicare beneficiaries 66 years or older on January 1 of each year. FACTORS Age, sex, race, primary cause of ESRD, dual Medicare/Medicaid enrollment status, comorbid conditions. OUTCOMES Hip fracture rates. MEASUREMENTS Unadjusted hip fracture rates measured using number of events per 1,000 person-years in each year, then adjusted for patient characteristics. Poisson models estimated strata-specific event rates. RESULTS The observed number of first hospitalized hip fracture events and the adjusted hip fracture rate increased steadily from 1993 (831 events; 11.9/1,000 person-years), peaked in 2004 (3,256 events; 21.9/1,000 person-years), and decreased through 2010 (2,912 events; 16.6/1,000 person-years). The trend for the subset of hemodialysis patients 66 years or older was similar to the trend for the full hemodialysis cohort; however, it differed markedly in magnitude and pattern from the non-ESRD Medicare cohort, for which rates were substantially lower and slowly decreasing since 1996. LIMITATIONS Unable to provide causal explanations for observed changes; hip fractures identified through inpatient episodes; results do not describe hemodialysis patients without Medicare Parts A and B; laboratory values unavailable in the Medicare data set. CONCLUSIONS Temporal trends in hip fracture rates among Medicare hemodialysis patients differ markedly from the steadily decreasing trend in non-ESRD Medicare beneficiaries, showing a relatively rapid increase until 2004 and relatively rapid decrease thereafter. Further research is needed to define associated factors.