John Ashworth

Selection Bias and Peer Effects in Team Sports The Effect of Age Grouping on Earnings of German Soccer Players

This article analyzes how age grouping in youth competitions and soccer education programs affects wage formation at the professional level. A simple theoretical model shows that professional players born late after the cutoff date are expected to earn systematically higher wages than their early-born peers. Two discriminating factors are responsible for this: a systematic bias in the talent detection system and peer effects in the production process of human (sports) capital. The authors demonstrate the existence of such an effect among (native) German professional soccer players. Estimating an earnings function for players in the 1997-1998 and 1998-1999 seasons, the authors find clear evidence of a month-of-birth-related wage bias. Players born late after the cutoff date earn systematically higher wages, though this effect is not discernible in all positions; it is strongest for goalkeepers and defenders but not evident for forwards.

Modeling Student Subject Choice at Secondary and Tertiary Level: A Cross-Section Study

Abstract Cross-section data on secondary level student choices provide evidence on factors influencing the decision to study economics. Such evidence makes a key contribution to the broader debates on why student numbers have been falling in economics and why women are reluctant economists. Greater mathematical aptitude and prior knowledge of the subject influence the decision to study economics, and a significant effect is attributable to relative underachievement in economics. There are also significant peer group and teacher effects. Female students are more likely to study economics when there is a critical mass of women studying the subject. There is a positive role model effect of female teachers—although this does not carry over to the decision to continue with economics at the university.

Patterns of seasonality in employment in tourism in the UK.

Tourism employment has grown rapidly (a fact which has been of interest to policymakers concerned with job generation) but it has a marked seasonal character. Several attempts have been made by the industry to lessen seasonality in tourism demand (and hence in tourism employment) by fillng troughs. This paper uses recent advances in econometric work to investigate whether seasonality has lessened as a result of these policies, and if so, the nature of the changes in seasonality. A quarterly UK data series from 1982:1 to 1996:4 is examined. The distinction between stochastic and deterministic trend is made, and it is found that seasonality has in fact lessened and is best modelled as a break in deterministic seasonality. There has been approximately a 30% fall in the summer (second quarter) effect and approximately a 24% fall in the winter (fourth quarter) effect: thus the seasonal smoothing comes from lower hiring at the start of the peak season and lower firing at the end of the season.

Redistribution as a Local Public Good: An Empirical Test for Flemish Municipalities

Redistribution is typically viewed as a task of the central government. However, in most federal countries local governments do have some discretion in redistribution policy. The main theoretical argument for this is that redistribution may be a local public good (Pauly 1973). Using data on Flemish municipalities, we present a first empirical test of Paulys assumption. We find that the willingness to redistribute is negatively affected by the geographical dimension of the responsible government. We extend the notion of distance, considering also sociological, cultural, income and political distances between donors and recipients. We find that, with the exception of income, these are relevant determinants of welfare policy, though they do not always have the predicted effect.

Tax Structure Turbulence in OECD Countries

This paper analyses whether and to what extent politiciansmanipulate tax structures strategically in order to winelections or for ideological purposes. We introduce anindicator for tax structure turbulence which measures thedegree to which a countrys tax structure changes from oneyear to another. Using data on 18 OECD countries over theperiod 1965–1995, we find clear evidence of a politicalbudget cycle in national tax structures. More precisely, wefind that in election years, tax structures are changedsignificantly less than in other years. Further, thedispersion of political power significantly lowers the abilityof governments to change the tax structure. We do not,however, find any evidence of partisan budget cycles innational tax systems following political regime changes.

Political Fragmentation and the Evolution of National Tax Structures in the OECD

This paper considers how tax structures in OECD countries change over time and how these changes are related to political fragmentation. Tax structures amongst OECD countries have become more uniform in the recent past (1965–1995) but it is less clear that this convergence satisfies time-series requirements. Evidence on stochastic convergence tends to suggest that there is evidence of persistence of shocks remaining over a considerable time period. A consideration of the countries where this persistence is most prevalent shows that there is significant correlation between high persistence and weak (coalition) governments, giving further weight to the theories of weak government.

Structural breaks in parallel markets?: the case of Nigeria, 1980–1993

Abstract This paper demonstrates the importance of allowing for structural breaks in the time-series when investigating the relationship between the official and the parallel markets in foreign exchange. Only when structural breaks are accounted for does a relationship emerge in Nigeria. We find that over the period 1980–1993, the official rate has Granger-caused the parallel rate.

Economists are Grading Students Away from the Subject

Using a unique data set, collected from over 1000 A-level students, we obtain evidence of student interest and achievement in their chosen A-level subjects. Ten major A-level subjects are considered with particular attention focused on economics, a subject that has experienced a marked decline in popularity (by over 50%) in the 1990s. A key finding is that students of economics under-perform in economics relative to both their other chosen A-levels and their GCSE performance. This finding is outstanding amongst the major A-levels. We conclude that students may be discouraged from the study of A-level economics by relatively severe grading at the mid-point of A-level study. Some positive action by the profession may be needed to stem fears of further decline in student take-up in the new AS-level environment where students may choose to discontinue some of their subjects at the end of one year of study.

A Waste of Time? (Private Rates of Return to Higher Education in the 1990s)

Since 1990, there has been considerable debate concerning the benefits of the expansion of higher education and the appropriate way to fund such an expansion. This paper demonstrates that three factors are decisive to the individual contemplating higher education: national economic growth; the relative earnings of graduates and non-graduates; the difference between the average and the marginal student. The results, of analysis based on rates of return, reaffirm the view that a proportion of the costs involved in higher education can be transferred to the graduates themselves in the form of loans. However, there appear to be limits to the costs that can be transferred if all students are to judge that undergraduate study is a worthwhile proposition. Notwithstanding this, most students could be lent more income to study than is now the case and indeed an average student would be advised to take any loans despite the greater debt. Marginal students, however, are making a risky private investment and, therefore, any decisions to further expand may result in students not taking up the places.

How Good Are Small Firms at Predicting Employment

This paper utilises some data from an interview survey of very small firms in the North of England to examine the relationship between actual and forecast employment in small firms over a twelve month period. The paper first provides some summary statistics on actual and forecast employment for the survey firms over the reference period. It then looks at how successful the firms are in their short term forecasts, and finds that there is systematic over-estimation. The causes of the systematic forecast error are investigated. It is suggested, tentatively, that the firms may in some way be incorrectly interpreting the information embodied in their own employment figures when making their forecasts. The paper concludes with a brief review of the results and possible policy implications. Avenues for future work are also proposed.