John Curtice

Electoral Choice and the Production of Government: The Changing Operation of the Electoral System in the United Kingdom since 1955

The debate about electoral reform in Britain has taken a new turn with the latest upsurge in mid-term support for the Liberals, the launch of the SDP, and the immediate electoral success of the Alliance between the two parties. We do not deal here with the durability or consequences of these developments. We are concerned with the electoral system that they put under challenge. This concern is the more important because, as we shall show here, the working of that system altered fundamentally between 1955 and 1979. Before considering how fragile ‘the mould of British polities’ is or whether it should be broken, it is appropriate to reconsider and remeasure the precise shape and texture of that mould, and establish what are the chemical bonds which have determined those characteristics.

British social attitudes : The 24th report

The annual British Social Attitudes survey is carried out by Britains largest independent social research organisation, the National Centre for Social Research. It provides an indispensable guide to political and social issues in contemporary Britain.This 24th Report summarises and interprets data from the most recent nationwide survey, as well as drawing invaluable comparisons with the findings of previous years to provide a richer picture and deeper understanding of changing British social values. The British Social Attitudes survey report is essential reading for anyone seeking a guide to the topical issues and debates of today or engaged in contemporary social and political research.

Getting the Message Out: A Two-Step Model of the Role of the Internet in Campaign Communication Flows During the 2005 British General Election

ABSTRACT To date the Internet has apparently had limited impact on changing “politics as usual” in election campaigns. Parties often fail to make imaginative use of the medium, while relatively few people use it to acquire information about an election. However, while it may be the case that only political activists use the Internet to acquire information about an election, these activists may then disseminate that information more widely because they are particularly likely to discuss the election with their fellow citizens. We find evidence that such a two-step flow of information may well have occurred during the 2005 British election.

British social attitudes : the 21st report

The Work-Centred Welfare State - Peter Taylor-Gooby Has Modern Politics Disenchanted the Young? - Alison Park Teenagers on Family Values - Miranda Phillips Can Britain Close the Digital Divide? - Catherine Bromley e-politics? The Impact of the Internet on Political Trust and Participation - John Curtice and Pippa Norris Genomic Science - Patrick Sturgis, Helen Cooper, Chris Fife-Schaw and Richard Shepherd Emerging Public Opinion Dimensions of British Identity - James Tilley, Sonia Exley and Anthony Heath Understanding the Rising Tide of Anti-Immigrant Sentiment - Lauren McLaren and Mark Johnson Does England want Devolution Too? - John Curtice and Mark Sandford

British social attitudes : the 19th report

Gender, childcare and work, Katarina Thompson civil liberties and race, Lindsay Brook and Ed Cape local government, Ken Young political trust, John Curtice and Roger Jowell Europe, Geoff Edwards fear of crime, Daphne Ahrendt and Lizanne Dowds environment, Sharon Witherspoon women and the family, Jackie Scott welfare, Peter Taylor-Gooby graduates, Anthony Heath teenagers, Alison Park.

British social attitudes: the 25th report

The annual British Social Attitudes survey is carried out by Britains largest independent social research organisation, the National Centre for Social Research. It provides an indispensable guide to political and social issues in contemporary Britain.This 25th Report summarises and interprets data from the most recent nationwide survey, as well as drawing invaluable comparisons with the findings of previous years to provide a richer picture and deeper understanding of changing British social values. The British Social Attitudes survey report is essential reading for anyone seeking a guide to the topical issues and debates of today or engaged in contemporary social and political research.

British Social Attitudes: The 17th Report

The annual British Social Attitudes survey is carried out by Britains largest independent social research organisation, the National Centre for Social Research. It provides an indispensable guide to political and social issues in contemporary Britain, summarising and interpreting data from the most recent nationwide survey, as well as drawing invaluable comparisons with the findings of previous years to provide a richer picture and deeper understanding of changing British social values. The 27th Report focuses on the national mood after three terms of a Labour government. It includes analysis of the reaction to Labours policies in health and education and explores peoples perceptions of social mobility and inequality. It also examines the extent to which the banking crisis and MPs expenses scandal have shaped public attitudes and values

Tactical Unwind? Changes in Party Preference Structure and Tactical Voting in Britain between 2001 and 2005

Abstract The breakdown of the relatively close relationship between Labour and the Liberal Democrats between 2001 and 2005 provides reason to expect that both the incidence and the character of tactical voting would have been different at the 2005 general election as compared with other recent elections. Fewer voters would be expected to have voted tactically overall, and in particular fewer would be expected to have made a tactical switch between the Liberal Democrats and Labour. This paper examines whether those expectations were fulfilled. It finds that the increased hostility between the leaderships of the Labour and the Liberal Democrat parties was not reflected in the attitudes of those parties’ supporters. Nevertheless there does seem to have been some decline in tactical switching from Labour to the Liberal Democrats, engendered perhaps by an apparent decline in hostility towards the Conservatives. Otherwise, however, there is no consistent evidence that the incidence or pattern of tactical voting was different in 2005 from that in 2001.

Confounding the commentators : how the 2010 exit poll got it (more or less) right

Abstract An exit poll conducted on behalf of the three main UK broadcasting organizations for the 2010 general election predicted that the Liberal Democrats would win fewer seats than in 2005, a suggestion that was met with widespread disbelief amongst commentators. Not only did this forecast prove correct, but the poll’s prediction that the Conservatives would be the largest party in a hung parliament with 307 seats also proved to be spot on. This paper describes and evaluates the methodology of the poll. The key features were a focus on changes in party vote shares facilitated by conducting the poll in the same places as at the previous election, modelling of the variation in those estimated changes, and a probabilistic approach to identifying the likely outcome in seats. All three features contributed to the accuracy of the 2010 poll. The data provided a highly accurate estimate of the change in the Liberal Democrat vote. Meanwhile, a slight overestimation of the swing from Labour to the Conservatives was corrected by the modelling of changes in vote shares and the use of a probabilistic approach to seat prediction.

The state of election studies: mid-life crisis or new youth?

Abstract Michigan-style national election studies have now been conducted for around 40 years or more in a number of countries. Given their relative inattention to context and difficulties in disentangling cause and effect, it might be considered time for radical change to, or even abandonment of, such studies. However, the longevity of the studies coupled with a growing programme of comparative research means that it is only now beginning to be possible to address some key questions about the impact of context on voting behaviour. What is required in order to take advantage of this newly emerging opportunity is a change to the way we analyze data from national election studies; and it is important that this opportunity not be jeopardized by ill-considered changes in their design.