John D. Landis

TWENTY YEARS OF THE BAY AREA RAPID TRANSIT SYSTEM: LAND USE AND DEVELOPMENT IMPACTS

Planners of the Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) system, the first large-scale urban rail project built in the U.S. since the early part of this century, hoped BART would encourage compact and orderly growth, and spawn a multi-centered settlement pattern. The initial BART impact study, conducted a few years following the systems 1973 opening, concluded that BART played a fairly modest, though not inconsequential, role in shaping metropolitan growth and land-use patterns. This paper summarizes findings from an update of the original BART impact study, examining BARTs influences on urban development patterns 20 years after services started. In general, our findings are similar to those of the original impact study. Over the past 20 years, land-use changes associated with BART have been largely localized, limited to downtown San Francisco and Oakland and a handful of suburban stations. Elsewhere, few land-use changes have occurred, either because of neighborhood opposition or a lackluster local real estate market. While BART appears to have helped bring about a more multi-centered regional settlement pattern, such as inducing midrise office development near the Walnut Creek and Concord stations, it has done little to stem the tide of freeway-oriented suburban employment growth over the past two decades. Indeed, recent office additions near East Bay stations pale in comparison to the amount of floorspace built in non-BART freeway corridors. Near several suburban stations, the most notable change has been the addition of multi-family housing. In most instances, local redevelopment authorities helped leverage these projects by providing various financial incentives and assistance with land assemblege. Statistical analyses reveal that the availability of vacant and developable land is an important predictor of whether land-use changes occurred near stations. BART, in and of itself, has clearly not been able to induce large-scale land-use changes, though under the right circumstances, it appears to have been an important contributor. If the Bay Area is to achieve the compact, multi-centered built form that was originally envisaged, we conclude that stronger public policy initiatives will be needed to channel future regional growth to BART corridors.

The second generation of the California urban futures model. Part 1: Model logic and theory

In this paper we explore the theory and logic behind the development of the second generation of the California urban futures model, a site-specific urban growth and simulation model. The second-generation model remedies three of the major shortcomings of the first generation. It substitutes a statistical model of urban land-use change, calibrated against historical experience, for an uncalibrated ‘developer-driven’ model. It includes multiple urban land uses (for example, single-family residential, apartments, retail and office, and industrial) and allows them to bid against each other for preferred sites. It allows previously developed sites to be redeveloped into different uses. Finally, in addition to simulating the spatial impacts of regulatory policies, it can also simulate the effects of major infrastructure investments such as highways and transit lines.

The second generation of the California urban futures model. Part 2: Specification and calibration results of the land-use change submodel

In this paper, part 2 of a three-part series, we present the formal specification and calibration results of the land-use change component of the second-generation California urban futures model. The land-use change component consists of a series of nonordinal multinomial logit models of site-specific land-use changes. These models incorporate spatial measures (for example, mix of adjacent land uses, and proximity to similar activities) as well as local policy and accessibility measures. Various model forms are developed and explained, as are multiple approaches to evaluating the equation for goodness-of-fit.

IMAGINING LAND USE FUTURES: APPLYING THE CALIFORNIA URBAN FUTURES MODEL

Abstract The California Urban Futures Model (or CUF Model) is the first of a new generation of metropolitan planning models designed to help planners, elected officials, and citizen groups create and compare alternative land-use policies. This article explains how the CUF Model works and then demonstrates its use in simulating realistic alternatives for regional and subregional growth policy/planning. Part One explains the design principles and logic of the CUF Model. Part Two presents CUF Model simulation results of three alternatives for growth policy/land-use planning alternatives for the San Franciso Bay and Sacramento areas. Part Three demonstrates the use of the CUF Model for evaluating alternative agricultural protection and zoning policies at the county, or sub-regional, level.

Do Growth Controls Work?: A New Assessment

Abstract This article presents a partial evaluation of local growth controls as applied in seven mid-size California cities: Camarillo, Livermore, Lodi, Red-lands, San Luis Obispo, Thousand Oaks, and Walnut Creek. Through a comparison of the seven growth control cities with similar (and usually nearby) cities that did not adopt controls, this article reports on three aspects of local growth control: Do local growth controls actually reduce local rates of population growth? Do local growth controls increase the price of housing? And what is the link between growth control and community fiscal health?

Land Regulation and the Price of New Housing Lessons from Three California Cities

Abstract This article suggests that the effects of local land use controls on new home prices are greatest when such controls function as barriers to the entry of outside home-building firms. Housing markets in which developable land supplies are restricted are likely to be dominated by a small set of homebuilders who can exercise monopoly power over prices and products. In proposing land use controls, local planners should realize that the measure they use for gauging an areas development potential—the absolute availability of developable land—is not necessarily the measure used by developers and homebuilders.

Assessing the impacts of urban rail transit on local real estate markets using quasi-experimental comparisons

A number of studies have concluded that recent rail transit investments have impacted the form and land use character of American cities far less than their counterparts a century or so ago. This study compares a number of measures of market performance between office submarkets located at selected rail transit stations in Washington, DC and Atlanta, with otherwise similar office submarkets lacking transit service. Comparisons are made over the period between 1978 and 1989. Although there were notable exceptions, the research finds that office projects located at or near transit stations enjoyed a slight office rent premium over their freeway-oriented competitors. In addition, office projects near rail stations tended to be slightly larger, and lease up somewhat more rapidly than office projects at the nonrail control sites. Other comparisons of office market performance tended to be more equivocal. These results suggest that although rail transit service does generate some benefits for the owners of commercial properties near transit stations, such benefits tend to be quite small.

Rethinking Federal Housing Policy

Problem: Federal housing policy is made up of disparate programs that a) promote homeownership; b) assist low-income renters’ access to good-quality, affordable housing; and c) enforce the Fair Housing Act by combating residential discrimination. Some of these programs are ineffective, others have drifted from their initial purpose, and none are well coordinated with each other. Purpose: We examine the trends, summarize the research evaluating the performance of these programs, and suggest steps to make them more effective and connected to each other. Methods: We review the history of housing policy and programs and empirical studies of program effectiveness to identify a set of best principles and practices. Results and conclusions: In the area of homeownership, we recommend that the federal government help the nations housing markets quickly find bottom, privatize aspects of the secondary mortgage market, and move to eliminate the mortgage interest deduction and replace it with a 10-year homeownership tax credit. In the area of subsidized rental housing, we recommend that the current system of vouchers be regionalized (or alternatively, converted into an entitlement program that works through the income tax system), sell public housing projects to nonprofit sponsors where appropriate, and eliminate some of the rigidities in the Low Income Housing Tax Credit program. In the area of fair housing, we recommend that communities receiving Community Development Block Grants be required to implement inclusionary zoning programs. Takeaway for practice: In general, we recommend that federal policy build on proven programs; focus on providing affordable housing for low- and moderate-income families and provide the funding to meet that goal; avoid grandiose and ideological ambitions and programs; use fewer and more coordinated programs; offer tax credits, not tax deductions; and promote residential filtering. Research support: Partial funding support was provided by the National Science Foundation.

Land-Use Controls and Housing Costs: An Examination of San Francisco Bay Area Communities

This paper reports on our efforts to gauge the effects of land use controls on housing markets. We discuss how land use controls affect land and housing markets and explain why communities use such controls to restrict development. We present the results of an econometric model created to assess the inflationary effects of land use controls on housing costs. The model is based on data assembled in the San Francisco Bay Area. The model results indicate that density controls and land availability do systematically affect the price of new housing units. Copyright American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.

The future of infill housing in California: Opportunities, potential, and feasibility

Abstract This article presents a methodology for using county tax assessor records and other geographic information system and secondary source data to develop realistic estimates of community, county, and statewide infill housing potential in California. We first identify the number, acreage, average size, and spatial distribution of vacant and potentially redevelopable parcels within three types of infill counting areas. We then develop a schema for determining appropriate infill housing densities based on transit service availability, local land use mix and character, and initial neighborhood densities. We use this schema to generate local, county, and statewide estimates of infill housing potential. These are then carefully evaluated in terms of their parcel size and financial feasibility, the likelihood that construction will displace existing low‐income renters, and the contribution to cumulative overdevelopment. We conclude with a brief discussion of state‐level policy changes that would reduce barriers to market‐led infill housing construction.