John D. Sims

Determining Earthquake Recurrence Intervals from Deformational Structures in Young Lacustrine Sediments

Examination of the silty sediments in the lower Van Normal reservoir after the 1971 San Fernando, California earthquake revealed three zones of deformational structures in the 1-m-thick sequence of sediments exposed over about 2 km2 of the reservoir bottom. These zones are correlated with moderate earthquakes that shook the San Fernando area in 1930, 1952, and 1971. The success of this study, coupled with the experimental formation of deformational structures similar to those of the Van Norman reservoir, led to a search for similar structures in Pleistocene and Holocene lakes and lake sediments in other seismically active areas. Thus, studies have been started in Pleistocene and Holocene silty and sandy lake sediments in the Imperial Valley, southeastern California; Clear Lake, in northern California; and the Puget Sound area of Washington. The Imperial Valley study has yielded spectacular results: five zones of structures in the upper 10 m of Late Holocene sediments near Brawley have been correlated over an area of approximately 100 km2, using natural outcrops. These structures are similar to those of the Van Norman reservoir and are interpreted to represent at least five moderate to large earthquakes that affected the southern Imperial Valley area during Late Holocene time. The Clear Lake study has provided ambiguous results with respect to determination of earthquake recurrence intervals because the cores studied are in clayey rich in organic material sediments that have low liquefaction potential. A study of Late Pleistocene varved glacio-lacustrine sediments has been started in the Puget Sound area of Washington, and thirteen sites have been examined. One has yielded 18.75 m of sediments that contains 1,804 varves and fourteen deformed zones interpreted as being caused by earthquake, because they are identical to structures formed experimentally by simulated seismic shaking. Correlation of deformational structures with seismic events is based on: 1. (1) proximity to presently active seismic zones; 2. (2) presence of potentially liquefiable sediments; 3. (3) similarity to structures formed experimentally; 4. (4) small-scale internal structures within deformed zones that suggest liquefaction; 5. (5) structures restricted to single stratigraphic intervals; 6. (6) zones of structures correlatable over large areas; and 7. (7) absence of detectable influence by slopes, slope failures, or other sedimentological, biological, or deformational processes.

The Earthquake Potential of the New Madrid Seismic Zone

The fault system responsible for New Madrid seismicity has generated temporally clustered very large earthquakes in A.D. 900 100 years and A.D. 1450 150 years as well as in 1811-1812. Given the uncertainties in dating liquefaction features, the time between the past three New Madrid events may be as short as 200 years and as long as 800 years, with an average of 500 years. This advance in understanding the Late Holocene history of the New Madrid seismic zone and thus, the contemporary tectonic behavior of the associated fault system was made through studies of hundreds of earthquake-induced liquefaction features at more than 250 sites across the New Madrid region. We have found evidence that prehistoric sand blows, like those that formed during the 1811-1812 earthquakes, are probably com- pound structures resulting from multiple earthquakes closely clustered in time or earthquake sequences. From the spatial distribution and size of sand blows and their sedimentary units, we infer the source zones and estimate the magnitudes of earth- quakes within each sequence and thereby characterize the detailed behavior of the fault system. It appears that fault rupture was complex and that the central branch of the seismic zone produced very large earthquakes during the A.D. 900 and A.D. 1450 events as well as in 1811-1812. On the basis of a minimum recurrence rate of 200 years, we are now entering the period during which the next 1811-1812-type event could occur.

130,000-yr continuous pollen record from Clear Lake, Lake County, California

Pollen analysis of a 115-m sediment core from Clear Lake, Lake County, California, provides a climatic record that is continuous for the past 130,000 yr. The pollen record reflects migrations of the tree species of the California Coast Ranges in response to the climatic changes of the last glacial cycle. During interglacials, the Clear Lake pollen rain was dominated by Quercus (oak) pollen. During cooler periods, oak pollen was replaced by pollen of coniferous species. The curve for Quercus pollen strongly resembles and is used to correlate with both deep-sea oxygen-isotope curves and the climatic record from certain European pollen studies.

Correlation of Alaskan varve thickness with climatic parameters, and use in paleoclimatic reconstruction

The thickness of varves in the sediments of Skilak Lake, Alaska, are correlated with the mean annual temperature (r = 0.574), inversely correlated with the mean annual cumulative snowfall (r = −0.794), and not correlated with the mean annual precipitation (r = 0.202) of the southern Alaska climatological division for the years 1907–1934 A.D. Varve thickness in Skilak Lake is sensitive to annual temperature and snowfall because Skilak Glacier, the dominant source of sediment for Skilak Lake, is sensitive to these climatic parameters. Trends of varve thickness are well correlated with trends of mean annual cumulative snowfall (r = −0.902) of the southern Alaska climatological division and with trends of mean annual temperature of the southern (r = 0.831) and northern (r = 0.786) Alaska climatological divisions. Trends of varve thickness also correlate with trends of annual temperature in Seattle and North Head, Washington (r = 0.632 and 0.850, respectively). Comparisons of trends of varve thickness with trends of annual temperature in California, Oregon, and Washington suggest no widespread regional correlation. Trends of annual snowfall in the southern Alaska climatological division and trends of annual temperature in the southern and northern Alaska climatological divisions are reconstructed for the years 1700–1906 A.D. Climatic reconstructions on the basis of varve thickness in Skilak Lake utilize equations derived from the regression of series of smoothed climatological data on series of smoothed varve thickness. Reconstruction of trends of mean annual cunulative snowfall in the southern Alaska climatological division suggests that snowfall during the 1700s and 1800s was much greater than that during the early and mid-1900s. The periods 1770–1790 and 1890–1906 show marked decreases in the mean annual snowfall. Reconstructed trends of the annual temperature of the northern and southern Alaska climatological divisions suggest that annual temperatures during the 1700s and 1800s were lower than those of the early and mid-1900s. Two periods of relatively high annual temperatures coincide with the periods of low annual snowfall thus determined.

The Montenegro, Yugoslavia, earthquake of April 15, 1979: source orientation and strength

Long-period teleseismic P, S and Rayleigh waves and geologic considerations indicate that the Montenegro earthquake involved thrust faulting on a plane striking nearly parallel to the Adriatic coast and dipping ca. 15° toward the Yugoslav mainland. There is some support from modeling of body waves recorded on long-period WWSSN instruments for a focal depth of 22 km, but the possibility of a multiple source and the difficulty of matching some of the detailed characteristics of the P- and S-wave forms reduce our confidence in the determination of the depth. Fortunately, the source orientation and moment of the event are not sensitive functions of the depth. The long-period (256 s) moment was 4.6 × 10^(19) Nm (4.6 × 10^(26) dyne-cm). The moment obtained by fitting the first cycle of P and S waves recorded on WWSSN long-period instruments is about four times smaller. This increase of moment with period is consistent with spectral estimates of the moment from SH waves recorded at SRO and ASRO stations.

Lake-sediment evidence for the date of deglaciation of the Hidden Lake area, Kenai Peninsula, Alaska

An abrupt environmental change is reflected in a core from Hidden Lake, Alaska, by differences in sediment type, chlorite crystallinity, and content of organic carbon and water of the sediments. This abrupt change in the sedimentary record occurred about 14,500 14C yr ago and probably marks the time of recession of the glacier from the Hidden Lake drainage basin. Deglaciation of the area was then underway, and rock flour was being deposited in the lake. After recession of the glacier from the Hidden Lake drainage basin, rock flour was no longer introduced, and organic-matter content of the sediment increased. By the dating of these changes in sediment type, we show that retreat of glaciers in this area took place significantly earlier than previously estimated; this agrees with the timing of retreat of alpine glaciers elsewhere in western North America.

Holocene pollen and sediment record from the tangle lakes area, central Alaska

Abstract Pollen and sediments have been analyzed from a 5.5 meter‐length core of lacustrine sediments from Tangle Lakes, in the Gulkana Upland south of the Alaska Range (63 ° 01 ‘ 46”; N. latitude, 146° 03 ‘ 48 “ W. longitude). Radiocarbon ages indicate that the core spans the last 4700 years. The core sediments are sandy silt and silty clay; the core shows distinct rhythmic laminations in the lower 398 cm. The laminae appear to be normally graded; peat fibers and macerated plant debris are more abundant near the tops of the laminae. Six volcanic‐ash layers are present in the upper 110 cm of the core. Present‐day vegetation of the Tangle Lakes area is mesic shrub tundra and open spruce woodland, with scattered patches of shrub willow (Salix), balsam poplar (P. balsamifera), spruce (Picea), paper birch (Betula papyrifera), and alder (Alnus). Pollen analysis of 27 core samples suggests that this vegetation type has persisted throughout the past 4700 years, except for an apparently substantial increase in Pi...

Late-Pleistocene and Holocene remains of Hysterocarpus traski (Tule Perch) from Clear Lake, California, and inferred Holocene temperature fluctuations

Abstract The remains of scales of Hysterocarpus traski Gibbons (Tule perch) were found throughout a 27.44-m core from Clear Lake. Most scales occurred between the mud surface and deposits approximately 11,000 years old. Changes in growth rates of the animals were examined by measuring scale annuli and applying an empirically established regression of fish length on scale radius. The data indicate a pattern of accelerating growth rates, reaching a peak between ⋍4000 and 2800 BP. After ⋍2800 BP, growth rates decline markedly. Because the growth rates of these animals are essentially dependent on temperature, the changes observed in the patterns of growth probably reflect changes in climate in the northern Coast Range. The general pattern of inferred temperature increase during the early and middle Holocene, ending between ⋍4000 and 2800 BP, is consistent with evidence from tree-line studies and palynology indicating higher temperatures in parts of the western United States during this period.

Geochemistry of amino acids in sediments from Clear Lake, California

By studying the geochemistry of amino acids, we attempt to clarify uncertainties in the radiocarbon chronology and in correlations of ash beds and pollen spectra in lacustrine sediment from Clear Lake, California. Two amino acids, aspartic acid and alanine, are considered in detail. Relative concentrations of aspartic acid decrease with depth, a result likely due to diagenesis and to preferential adsorption and hydrolysis in clay. Relative concentrations of alanine show the reverse effect with depth, probably due, in part, to the generation of alanine from other amino acids during diagenesis. The aspartic acid racemization rate calibrated by radiocarbon yields anomalously low age and temperature estimations for Clear Lake when kinetic assumptions from a study in Lake Ontario are used. However, the “apparent” alanine racemization rate correlates well with the alanine racemization rate determined for sediments from Lake Biwa, Japan. Our age assessment based on alanine supports a time-depth curve obtained from oak pollen and oxygen isotopes for Clear Lake representing a time span of about 130,000 yr.