John E. Hay

Small island developing states: coastal systems, global change and sustainability

The intent of this paper is to place the concepts of exposure, vulnerability, resilience and risk in the context of the consequences of global change for the sustainable development of small island developing states (SIDS). Many such states face a number of global climate change risks, such as an increase in the proportion of more intense storms, along with other global change threats that include energy security and costs. All these threats come on top of local development threats, such as increased run-off, often with increasing levels of contaminants due to unsustainable agricultural and industrial practices. When taken together, the resulting pressures on islands and their communities lead to significant increases in vulnerability to change due to reduced resilience to these changes. Vulnerability is also increasing as a result of contemporary processes that heighten the exposure of material and other assets. The capacity to address hazard risk also influences vulnerability. This includes the level of awareness of coastal hazards and exposure, and access to critical life support infrastructure, especially for people living in hazard-prone areas. Vulnerability and resilience are considered to be important integrating concepts when managing the local consequences of global changes. There are many initiatives that will help reduce the vulnerability and enhance the resilience of SIDS to such changes. These include improving risk knowledge and coastal resource and land use management, while also strengthening socio-economic systems and livelihoods. In this way, managing global change can be closely aligned with local development and humanitarian processes, thereby enhancing the overall sustainability of development processes and outcomes.

The changing nature of extreme weather and climate events: risks to sustainable development

This paper discusses climate-development linkages, with a focus on developing countries but also drawing lessons from the experiences of developed countries. Increases in weather and climate extremes leading to natural disasters have been observed in recent decades. Such events are impeding economic and social development in developing countries, as are socio-economic changes that increase their exposure and as well as the likelihood of mal-adaptation. For the Pacific Islands region, the most recent decade has been somewhat anomalous, with the marked absence of El Niño conditions resulting in fewer people being affected by natural disasters. Further increases in these extreme events are anticipated as a result of global warming, imposing still further barriers to sustainable development. However, integrating appropriate adaptation measures, including disaster risk-reduction measures, into development policies and plans provides developing countries with the opportunity to reduce socio-economic risks associated with extreme weather and climate events. This will help ensure the longer-term viability of development, despite a changing climate. Emphasis should be on no-regrets interventions.

Scenarios for coastal vulnerability assessment

Coastal vulnerability assessments tend to focus mainly on climate change and especially on sea-level rise. Assessment of the influence of nonclimatic environmental change or socioeconomic change is less well developed and these drivers are often completely ignored. Given that the most profound coastal changes of the twentieth century due to nonclimate drivers are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission. It may result in not only overstating the importance of climate change but also overlooking significant interactions of climate change and other drivers. To support the development of policies relating to climate change and coastal management, integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the effects of all the relevant drivers. This chapter explores the development of scenarios (or ‘plausible futures’) of relevant climate and nonclimate drivers that can be used for coastal analysis, with an emphasis on the nonclimate drivers. It shows the importance of analyzing the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise in a broader context of coastal change and all its drivers. This will improve the analysis of impacts, key vulnerabilities, and adaptation needs and, hence, inform climate and coastal policy. Stakeholder engagement is important in the development of scenarios, and the underlying assumptions need to be explicit, transparent, and open to scientific debate concerning their uncertainties/realism and likelihood.

Vulnerability, Risk and Adaptation Assessment Methods in the Pacific Islands Region: past approaches, and considerations for the future

Over two decades of vulnerability assessments have shown the Pacific Islands region to be one of the regions most at risk to the adverse consequences of climate change. Pacific Island countries have shown strong leadership in characterising the challenges of climate change, both nationally and for the region as a whole, and in identifying the most appropriate responses. This paper reviews the various Vulnerability, Risk and Adaptation (VRiA) Assessment Methods and Tools that have been used across the Pacific Islands region, with an emphasis on the past two decades. The aim is to identify the approaches that are best suited to the region, and to develop a common understanding and principles that may be relevant and useful to harmonising the assessment of vulnerability and risk, and of adaptation options across the region. Even though assessments undertaken in the Pacific Islands region tend to share the common objective of reducing vulnerabilities and risks, practitioners in the Pacific are using numerous approaches, methods and tools to assess vulnerabilities and identify possible adaptation interventions. No one approach will address all needs and accommodate all capacities. Rather, several successful approaches, methods and tools are identified. The paper also identifies and assesses the approaches, methods and tools that have merit for further use, without or with further improvements. Lessons learned as well as success stories and success factors are documented. These findings are reflected in principles designed to assist harmonisation of approaches to VRiA assessment. These principles, in turn, influence the development of a proposed higher-level framework and approach for VRiA assessments. It accommodates the various approaches, methods and tools commonly used with success in the Pacific.

Understanding and managing global change in small islands

Climate variability and change, associated changes in sea level, ocean acidification and surface warming, extreme events such as tropical cyclones and tsunamis, and the quality and quantity of freshwater resources are among the major environmental issues related to the sustainable development of small islands, including small island developing states (SIDS). In addition to natural change and hazards, principal sources of stress on small islands include changing social, demographic, economic, cultural, and governance conditions and maladaptive local development initiatives. As global pressures increase, including those related to climate change, the ability to cope with the adverse consequences of complex change may be compromised increasingly by limits to adaptive capacity, unsustainable development practices, institutional barriers, and other governance challenges. Island communities are social-ecological systems and their resilience in the face of uncertain futures (environmental, economic, and others) and surprises (extreme events) is a key element of sustainability (Kates et al. 2000; Adger 2006; Adger et al. 2005). Small island developing states and small islands within larger states are physical, ecological, and social entities with distinctive attributes related to their insularity, remoteness, size, geographic setting, climate, culture, governance, and economy (e.g. Pelling and Uitto 2001; Mimura et al. 2007; Hay 2013; Forbes et al. 2013). Yet despite the sense of separation that attends the experience of small islands, global change in a variety of forms impinges directly or indirectly on the environment and sustainability of these island communities. As a group, they pose some of the most striking challenges to sustainability science. Low-lying island states, such as the Maldives and Tuvalu, face pressing concerns about the limits to habitability under accelerated sea-level rise, the result of a warming global climate. Ocean warming and acidification pose threats to the conservation of reef corals and the stability and resilience of coral reefs under rising sea level (IPCC 2007). Together with concerns about freshwater resources, these environmental threats exacerbate challenges related to small size and remoteness, demographic pressures, small markets and limited economic opportunities, high per-capita infrastructure costs, reliance on external finance, limited technical capacity (including capacity for disaster response, recovery, and risk reduction), and cultural transformation through processes such as J. E. Hay (&) N. Mimura Institute for Global Change Adaptation Science (ICAS), Ibaraki University, Environment Research Laboratory Building, 2-1-1 Bunkyo, Mito, Ibaraki 310-8512, Japan e-mail: johnhay@ihug.co.nz

Extreme Weather and Climate Events, and Farming Risks

Extreme weather events, and climatic anomalies, have major impacts on agriculture. Of the total annual crop losses in world agriculture, many are due to direct weather and climatic effects such as drought, flash floods, untimely rains, frost, hail, and storms. High preparedness, prior knowledge of the timing and magnitude of weather events and climatic anomalies and effective recovery plans will do much to reduce their impact on production levels, on land resources and on other assets such as structures and infrastructure and natural ecosystems that are integral to agricultural operations. Aspects of crop and livestock production, as well as agriculture’s natural resource base, that are influenced by weather and climatic conditions include air and water pollution; soil erosion from wind or water; the incidence and effects of drought; crop growth; animal production; the incidence and extent of pests and diseases; the incidence, frequency, and extent of frost; the dangers of forest and bush fires; losses during storage and transport; and the safety and effectiveness of all on-farm operations (Mavi and Tupper 2004).