John H. Milsum

Vancouver regional health planning model

An aggregate simulation model of the health care system existing in Vancouver, Canada has been created as part of a multi-purpose regional simulation project. The model requires data on population trends, morbidity, health resource trends. Under a variety of possible policies (ZPG, for example) the effects in terms of surpluses and shortages of resources, untreated cases, and a scale of social impact attributable to Holmes are delineated over a n-year horizon. The results are intended to provide policy-makers with contingency forecasts for priority assignment, resource formation, and demand-resource matching.

Determining optimal screening policies using decision trees and spreadsheets

The determination of the proportion of population to be screened, so that overall costs are minimized, is treated. A decision tree approach is used, based on knowing the probabilities and costs of all possible outcomes. This involves specifying models that estimate the prevalences in the screened and non-screened groups for various screening levels. The generalized implementation on a microcomputer spreadsheet that is presented permits sensitivity and optimality to be explored for different parameter conditions. A numerical example illustrates the results.