John Lanham

Predicting the whole-life cost of a product at the conceptual design stage

Abstract This paper describes cost modelling research, industrial approaches and commercial systems and how these relate to whole-life cost estimating. The particular focus of the research described is the applicability of current approaches for the modelling of low-volume, infrequent products, such as complex electronic systems at the conceptual design stage. Traditional approaches, in particular those used to predict costs for mechanical systems, are described in detail, and the approach by which cost estimating relationships are ascertained is summarized. The approaches used within sectors such as aerospace, construction and injection moulding are discussed and evaluated. All of these are placed in the context of the design process, and in particular their relationship to the conceptual design of a product is described. Finally, a review of commercial systems and the methods they adopt and domains to which they are applicable are described. The use of these approaches in terms of whole-life cost of a product is then mapped.

Standards and inference of design information in through-life costing of innovative defence electronic products

Abstract Through-life costing (TLC) is a term used in cost estimation for costing a product from its conception to the end-of-life. However, there seems to be no common representation of the terminologies in the various stages of TLC. This paper reports the findings of research into TLC practices for defence electronic products and includes the terms and elements used in the TLC methods. The terminologies used for this research are adopted from the International Organisation for Standardisation (ISO), including ISO 15288 and ISO 10303 Application Protocols 233 and 239. A TLC spectrum diagram representing how design information is inferred to support the application of top-down and bottom-up approaches is also discussed. A case study focused on the concept and the development stages of design is presented and is followed by suggestions on how the proposed method can be applied to the succeeding stages of manufacturing, in-service, and disposal.

A Study of Life Cycle Costing in the Perspectives of Research and Commercial Applications in the 21st Century

This paper presents a review of research in the area of life cycle costing and offers a critique of current commercial cost estimation systems. The focus of the review is on relevant academic research on life cycle cost from 2000 onwards. In addition to this a comparison of the current cost estimation systems is presented. Using the review findings and industrial investigations as a base, a set of mathematical representations for design and manufacturing costs and the introduction of the critical factors is proposed. These are considered in terms of the operational, maintenance and disposal costs to create a method for ascertaining the life cycle cost estimate for complex products. This is presented using as an exemplar, research currently being undertaken in the area of low volume and long life electronic products in the UK defence sector. The benefit of the method proposed is that it aims to avoid the inflexibility of traditional approaches which usually require historical and legacy data to support the cost estimation processes.Copyright

Cost data modelling and searching to support low-volume, high-complexity, long-life defence system development

This article presents a data modelling and a semi-automatic data searching method to support cost estimation in the product development process, particularly for low-volume, high-complexity and long-life products typified by defence products and systems. This article covers a literature review in the area of cost estimation in product development, the data sets needed to perform cost estimation, the method of modelling the data and the techniques of supporting cost data searching. The proposed method will be used to support cost estimation of product development decisions for defence electronic products. To compare with the traditional approach, the method has demonstrated that by creating a centralized environment such as the ‘databases and using a data-driven’ approach. The system is made more efficient by reducing the number of processes in carrying out cost estimation, and thus, this provides more information to make an informed concept design decision during the product development process based on the system’s competence of instant cost estimation feedback.

Data-driven through-life costing to support product lifecycle management solutions in innovative product development

Innovative product usually refers to product that comprises of creativity and new ideas. In the development of such a new product, there is often a lack of historical knowledge and data available to be used to perform cost estimation accurately. This is due to the fact that traditional cost estimation methods are used to predict costs only after a product model has been built, and not at an early design stage when there is little data and information available. In light of this, original equipment manufacturers are also facing critical challenges of becoming globally competitive and increasing demands from customer for continuous innovation. To alleviate these situations this research has identified a new approach to cost modelling with the inclusion of product lifecycle management solutions to address innovative product development. The aim of this paper, therefore, is to discuss methods of developing an extended-enterprise data-driven through-life cost estimating method for innovative product development.

STEM@1000mph: Developing Open Educational Resources in a Live Engineering Project.

Higher education institutions are recognising the clear benefits of open educational resources, and academics are engaging with the development of these resources. This paper presents a case study of OERs being developed using the live, current BloodhoundSSC world land speed record project as a basis. The paper outlines the rationale for the BloodhoundSSC project and its focus on educational engagement across the age spectrum. The work undertaken to develop a web-based repository along with activities to stimulate academic and student engagement are described. The paper explores how academics have engaged with developing OERs based on this openly available content, the issues encountered and ways in which these issues can be mitigated.

Using Formal Design Techniques to Select Cost Estimation Methods for Cost Modelling

[Abstract] Within the cost estimation literature and in practice within organisations a range of cost estimation methods are used to predict costs prior to activities being undertaken. Estimates generated utilising different estimation methods provide different projections of the anticipated cost. The projected differences in cost could have a significant impact on the overall viability of a project or the selection of the optimum design for a product or process. This paper outlines research undertaken into how cost estimation methods are selected and utilised in a range of organisations. A proposal is made for a decision support tool to aid cost estimators to select the most appropriate cost estimation method given a set of information about the estimate provided by the estimator.

Predicting the End-Of-Life of Defence Electronic Systems at the Conceptual Design Stage

The primary objective of the research is to investigate how to estimate disposal costs being undertaken in defence electronic systems by the Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) and subsequently to ascertain a novel approach to predicting their end-of-life (EOL) cost. It is intended that the OEMs can utilise this method as part of a full life cycle cost analysis at the conceptual design stage. The cost model should also serve as a useful guide to aid decision making at the conceptual design stage. The novelty of this research is that it identifies the significance of disposal costs from the viewpoint of the OEM and provides a generic basis for evaluation of all the major EOL defence electronic systems.

An Extended-Enterprise Digital Data Library for Through-Life Cost Estimation in Innovative Product Development

Traditionally, cost estimation methods are used to predict costs only after a product model has been built, and not at an early design stage when there is little data and information available. The traditional cost models and systems used require a large amount of detailed data before a cost calculation can be made. This research has identified that, one of the main challenges to improve this situation in modelling cost is data identification and collection. The aim of this paper therefore is to discuss the methods of developing an extended-enterprise digital data library, data searching and data transfer mechanisms to support through-life cost estimation in the innovative product development processes. The paper begins with an introduction of relevant research in data modelling in cost estimation. This is followed by a section, which highlights problems of performing cost estimates for innovative low volume products, and subsequently the proposed solutions and example applications.