John M. Antle

Econometric Estimation of Producers' Risk Attitudes

General methods are proposed for the identification and econometric estimation of the parameters of the distribution of risk attitudes in a producer population. The proposed methods also provide the basis for the development of statistical tests of model specification and of behavioral hypotheses. Econometric risk attitude estimation is shown to be possible under less restrictive conditions than previously believed. A moment-based version of the general model is applied to Indian data, and the econometrically estimated risk attitudes are presented and compared to experimental results for a similar group of producers.

Pesticides, productivity, and farmer health: A Philippine case study

Production data from a farm-level survey were integrated with health data collected from the same population of farmers to measure the impacts of pesticide use on farmer health and the impacts of farmer health on productivity in two rice-producing regions of the Philippines. The relationships were then used in a simulation analysis to investigate the health and productivity tradeoffs implied by a policy to restrict pesticide use. Results show that pesticide use has a negative effect on farmer health, that farmer health has a positive effect on productivity, and that there are likely to be social gains from a reduction in insecticide use in Philippine rice production. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of the findings for pesticide policy in developing countries and for allocation of resources in agricultural research.

Testing the Stochastic Structure of Production: A Flexible Moment-Based Approach

Conventional production function specifications are shown to impose restrictions on the probability distribution of output that cannot be tested with the conventional models. These restrictions have important implications for firm behavior under uncertainty. A flexible representation of a firms stochastic technology is developed based on the moments of the probability distribution of output. These moments are a unique representation of the technology and are functions of inputs. Large-sample estimators are developed for a linear moment model that is sufficiently flexible to test the restrictions implied by conventional production function specifications. The flexible moment-based approach is applied to milk production data. The first three moments of output are statistically significant functions of inputs. The cross-moment restrictions implied by conventional models are rejected.

Spatial heterogeneity, contract design, and the efficiency of carbon sequestration policies for agriculture

Abstract In this paper we develop methods to investigate the efficiency of alternative contracts for Carbon (C) sequestration in cropland soils, taking into account the spatial heterogeneity of agricultural production systems and the costs of implementing more efficient contracts. We describe contracts being proposed for implementation in the United States and other countries that would pay farmers for adoption of specified practices (per-hectare contracts). We also describe more efficient contracts that would pay farmers per tonne of soil C sequestered, and we show how to estimate the costs of implementing these more efficient contracts. In a case study of a major agricultural region in the United States, we confirm that the relative inefficiency of per-hectare contracts varies spatially and increases with the degree of spatial heterogeneity. The results also show that per-hectare contracts are as much as five times more costly than per-tonne contracts—a degree of inefficiency similar to that found in assessments of command-and-control industrial emissions regulations. Measurement costs to implement the per-tonne contracts are found to be positively related to spatial heterogeneity but are estimated to be at least an order of magnitude smaller than the efficiency losses of the per-hectare contract for reasonable error levels. This finding implies that contracting parties could afford to bear a significant cost to implement per-tonne contracts and achieve a lower total cost than would be possible with the less efficient per-hectare contracts.

Econometric-Process Models for Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Production Systems

This paper develops the conceptual and empirical basis for a class of empirical economic production models that can be linked to site-specific bio-physical models for use in integrated assessment research. Site-specific data are used to estimate econometric production models, and these data and models are then incorporated into a simulation model that represents the decision making process of the farmer as a sequence of discrete or continuous land use and input use decisions. This discrete/continuous structure of the econometric process model is able to simulate decision making both within and outside the range of observed data in a way that is consistent with economic theory and with site-specific bio-physical constraints and processes. An econometric-process model of the dryland grain production system of the Northern Plains demonstrates the capabilities of this type of model.

Benefits and costs of food safety regulation

Abstract This paper begins with a review of the concepts and methods that can be used to quantify the benefits and costs of food safety regulations. On the cost side, where research is only beginning to emerge, this paper also provides an analytical framework for measurement of the costs of statutory regulations in the form of design and performance standards. This paper also discusses the use and limitations of currently available benefit and cost information for quantitative regulatory impact assessment, using the assessment of the mandatory HACCP and pathogen reduction regulations in the United States as an example. The paper concludes with suggestions for future research on quantifying benefits and costs of food safety regulations.

Economic, environmental, and health tradeoffs in agriculture: pesticides and the sustainability of Andean potato production.

List of Figures. List of Maps. List of Tables. Preface. 1. Introduction and Overview C.C. Crissman, et al. Part One: Conceptual and Methodological Foundations. 2. Tradeoffs in Policy Analysis: Conceptual Foundations and Disciplinary Integration J.M. Antle, et al. 3. Conceptual and Methodological Aspects of Assessing Pesticide Environmental Impact in Developing Areas R.J. Wagenet, et al. 4. Conceptual and Methodological Aspects of Investigating the Health Impacts of Agricultural Pesticide Use in Developing Countries D.C. Cole, et al. Part Two: An Introduction to Pesticide Policies in the Andean Region and to the Carchi Case Study Site. 5. The Case Study Site: Physical, Health, and Potato Farming Systems in Carchi Province C.C. Crissman, et al. 6. Economic Reforms and Changing Pesticide Policies in Ecuador and Colombia D.R. Lee, P. Espinosa. Part Three: Model Development and Analysis. 7. Econometric and Simulation Modeling of the Carchi Potato Production System J.M. Antle, et al. 8. Describing Pesticide Movement in Potato Production on Carchi Soils C.E.H. Ducrot, et al. 9. Health Impacts of Pesticide Use in Carchi Farm Populations D.C. Cole, et al. 10. The Role of Pesticides in Farm Productivity and Farmer Health J.M. Antle, et al. 11. Integrated Simulation Model and Analysis of Economic, Environmental, and Health Tradeoffs in the Carchi Potato-Pasture Production System J.M. Antle, et al. About the Mathematical Symbols Used in this Book. Acronyms. Subject Index.

The New Economics of Agriculture

Agriculture in the twentieth century was characterized first and foremost by technological innovation that began in the industrialized world and spread to the developing countries as the Green Revolution. This revolution in biological, chemical, and mechanical technology made it possible for agricultural production to grow faster than the demand for food despite a rapidly growing world population. The result was a decline in real agricultural commodity prices throughout this era-a trend that is expected by many researchers to continue at least into the early part of the twenty-first century (Antle et al., Johnson 1998, Rosegrant and Ringer). At the same time, virtually all governments intervened in their agricultural sectors through a wide array of policies, resulting in a pattern of net taxation of agriculture in low-income countries and subsidization of agriculture in high-income countries. This set of events, and the agricultural economics literature that was generated to explain them, is what I will refer to here as the economics of agriculture in the twentieth century. A stylized demand-andsupply model of an agricultural market can be used to represent these relationships, with output prices P, income I, population N, factor prices W, capital K, technology T, and government policy G:

No Such Thing as a Free Safe Lunch: The Cost of Food Safety Regulation in the Meat Industry

This study develops theoretical and econometric cost function models for the meat industry to test the hypothesis of safety exogeneity, i.e., that product safety does not affect productive efficiency. Using plant-level data from the Census of Manufactures, this hypothesis is rejected. Estimates of the impacts of food safety regulation on variable cost of production in the beef, pork, and poultry industries show that the efficiency costs of food safety regulations could plausibly exceed benefits estimated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Costs of regulation per pound of meat are found to be size neutral for all but the smallest plants. Copyright 2000, Oxford University Press.

Economic analysis of food safety

This chapter addresses the analysis of markets for food products that are differentiated by safety characteristics. The first part of the paper surveys the broad array of issues that are involved in food safety and the regulations that have been devised to address them. The next sections of the paper consider the analysis of the demand and supply of safety-differentiated products and the implications of alternative information regimes for market equilibrium. The final section of the paper considers the measurement of benefits and costs of food safety regulations in the context of recent efforts at regulatory impact assessment.