John M. Halley

Ecology, evolution and 1 f -noise.

Among ecologists, there has been a growing recognition of the importance of long-term correlations In environmental time series. The family of 1 f -noises - fluctuations defined in terms of the different timescales present - is a useful approach to this problem. White noise and the random walk, the two currently favoured descriptions of environmental fluctuations, lie at extreme ends of this family of processes. Recent analyses of data, results of models, and examination of basic 1 f -noise properties, suggest that pink 1 < f noise, which lies midway between white noise and the random walk, might be the best null model of environment variation. If true, this would have important consequences for the interpretation of ecological time series and for ecological and evolutionary modelling.

Effects of Monoterpenoids, Acting Alone or in Pairs, on Seed Germination and Subsequent Seedling Growth

We compared the potential allelopathic activity of 47 monoterpe- noids of different chemical groups, by estimating their effect on seed germination and subsequent growth of Lactuca sativa seedlings. Apart from individual compounds, eleven pairs at different proportions were also tested. As a group, the hydrocarbons, except for (+)-3-carene, were the least inhibitory. Of the oxygenated compounds, the least inhibitory were the acetates; whenever the free hydroxyl group of an alcohol turned into a carboxyl group, the activity of the resulting ester was markedly lower (against both germination and seedling growth). Twenty-four compounds were extremely active against seedling growth (inhibiting it by more than 85%), but only five against seed germination. The compounds that were most active against both processes belonged to the groups of ketones and alcohols; they were terpinen-4-ol, dihydrocarvone, and two carvone stereoisomers. We used a model to investigate whether compounds acted independently when applied in pairs. The combined effect varied. In half of the cases, it followed the pattern expected under the assumption of independence; in the rest, either synergistic or antagonistic interactions were found in both germination and elongation. However, even in cases of synergistic interactions, the level of inhibition was not comparable to that of a single extremely active compound, unless such a compound already participated in the combination. The specific structural factors that operate and determine the activity of monoterpenoids still remain rather obscure. The same holds true for the combined effect; its character cannot in general be predicted on the basis of individual compounds acting alone.

Neutral theory as a predictor of avifaunal extinctions after habitat loss

The worldwide loss of natural habitats leads not only to the loss of habitat-endemic species but also to further and protracted extinctions in the reduced areas that remain. How rapid is this process? We use the neutral theory of biodiversity to answer this question, and we compare the results taken with observed rates of avifaunal extinctions. In the neutral model, we derive an exact solution for the rate of species loss in a closed community. The simple, closed-form solution exhibits hyperbolic decay of species richness with time, which implies a potentially rapid initial decline followed by much slower rates long term. Our empirical estimates of extinction times are based on published studies for avifaunal extinctions either on oceanic islands or in forest fragments, which span a total of six orders of magnitude in area. These estimates show that the time to extinction strongly depends on the area. The neutral-theory predictions agree well with observed rates over three orders of magnitude of area (between 100 and 100,000 ha) both for islands and forest fragments. Regarding the species abundance distribution, extinction times based on a broken-stick model led to better agreement with observation than if a log-series model was used. The predictions break down for very small or very large areas. Thus, neutrality may be an affordable assumption for some applications in ecology and conservation, particularly for areas of intermediate size.

THE INCREASING IMPORTANCE OF 1/f-NOISES AS MODELS OF ECOLOGICAL VARIABILITY

The features of 1/f-noise processes offer important new insights into the field of population biology, greatly helping our quest for understanding and for prediction of ecological processes. 1/f-no...

Long-Term Climate Forcing in Loggerhead Sea Turtle Nesting

The long-term variability of marine turtle populations remains poorly understood, limiting science and management. Here we use basin-scale climate indices and regional surface temperatures to estimate loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) nesting at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Borrowing from fisheries research, our models investigate how oceanographic processes influence juvenile recruitment and regulate population dynamics. This novel approach finds local populations in the North Pacific and Northwest Atlantic are regionally synchronized and strongly correlated to ocean conditions—such that climate models alone explain up to 88% of the observed changes over the past several decades. In addition to its performance, climate-based modeling also provides mechanistic forecasts of historical and future population changes. Hindcasts in both regions indicate climatic conditions may have been a factor in recent declines, but future forecasts are mixed. Available climatic data suggests the Pacific population will be significantly reduced by 2040, but indicates the Atlantic population may increase substantially. These results do not exonerate anthropogenic impacts, but highlight the significance of bottom-up oceanographic processes to marine organisms. Future studies should consider environmental baselines in assessments of marine turtle population variability and persistence.

Language evolution and population dynamics in a system of two interacting species

We use Monte Carlo simulations and assumptions from evolutionary game theory in order to study the evolution of words and the population dynamics of a system made of two interacting species which initially speak two different languages. The species are characterized by their identity, vocabulary, and have different initial fitness, i.e. reproduction capability. We investigate how different initial fitness affects the vocabulary of the species or the population dynamics by leading to a permanent populational advantage. We further find that the spatial distributions of the species may cause the system to exhibit pattern formation or segregation. We show that an initial fitness advantage, even though very quickly balanced, leads to better spatial arrangement and enhances survival probabilities of the species. In most cases the system will arrive at a final state where both languages coexist. However, in cases where one species greatly outnumbers the other in population and fitness, then only one species survives with its “final” language having a slightly richer vocabulary than its initial language. Thus, our results offer an explanation for the existence and origin of synonyms in spoken languages.

Extinction risk of soil biota

Belowground soil biota play key roles in maintaining proper ecosystem functioning, but studies on their extinction ecology are sparse. Here, Veresoglou et al. review the risks to soil biota posed by global change, and highlight the technical challenges involved in identifying extinction events.

Monitoring, Modelling and Forecasting of the Pollen Season

The section about monitoring covers the development of phenological networks, remote sensing of the season cycle of the vegetation, the emergence of the science of aerobiology and, more specifically, aeropalynology, pollen sampling instruments, pollen counting techniques, applications of aeropalynology in agriculture and the European Pollen Information System. Three data sources are directly related with aeropalynology: phenological observations, pollen counts and remote sensing of the vegetation activity. The main future challenge is the assimilation of these data streams into numerical pollen forecast systems. Over the last decades consistent monitoring efforts of various national networks have created a wealth of pollen concentration time series. These constitute a nearly untouched treasure, which is still to be exploited to investigate questions concerning pollen emission, transport and deposition. New monitoring methods allow measuring the allergen content in pollen. Results from research on the allergen content in pollen are expected to increase the quality of the operational pollen forecasts.

Exploring Biodiversity in the Bacterial Community of the Mediterranean Phyllosphere and its Relationship with Airborne Bacteria

We studied the structure and diversity of the phyllosphere bacterial community of a Mediterranean ecosystem, in summer, the most stressful season in this environment. To this aim, we selected nine dominant perennial species, namely Arbutus unedo, Cistus incanus, Lavandula stoechas, Myrtus communis, Phillyrea latifolia, Pistacia lentiscus, Quercus coccifera (woody), Calamintha nepeta, and Melissa officinalis (herbaceous). We also examined the extent to which airborne bacteria resemble the epiphytic ones. Genotype composition of the leaf and airborne bacteria was analysed by using denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis profiling of a 16S rDNA gene fragment; 75 bands were cloned and sequenced corresponding to 28 taxa. Of these, two were found both in the air and the phyllosphere, eight only in the air, and the remaining 18 only in the phyllosphere. Only four taxa were found on leaves of all nine plant species. Cluster analysis showed highest similarity for the five evergreen sclerophyllous species. Aromatic plants were not grouped all together: the representatives of Lamiaceae, bearing both glandular and non-glandular trichomes, formed a separate group, whereas the aromatic and evergreen sclerophyllous M. communis was grouped with the other species of the same habit. The epiphytic communities that were the richest in bacterial taxa were those of C. nepeta and M. officinalis (Lamiaceae). Our results highlight the remarkable presence of lactic acid bacteria in the phyllosphere under the harsh conditions of the Mediterranean summer, the profound dissimilarity in the structure of bacterial communities in phyllosphere and air, and the remarkable differences of leaf microbial communities on neighbouring plants subjected to similar microbial inocula; they also point to the importance of the leaf glandular trichome in determining colonization patterns.

Competition, succession and pattern in fungal communities: towards a cellular automaton model

This paper describes the first cellular automaton model of a multispecies fungal community and presents some of the results of this model. The model assumes that competition occurs between two pairs of species which break down litter in two stages of succession. The litter can be introduced into the arena either continuously or seasonally. The model predicts numerous observed features of fungal dynamics: the formation of ring structures; the displacement of one mycelium specier by another in simple competitive situations and the coexistence of several species in a variable environment. The predicted response of species richness to resource level is dome-shaped. The model also predicts the formation of strikingly heterogeneous spatial patterns when the resource input is regular