John MacCormack

Long-Term Market Equilibrium Model With Strategic, Competitive, and Inflexible Generation

A general model of long-term equilibrium in energy only electricity markets that allows for generation additions and retirements is developed. The model is then applied with different assumptions regarding generator behaviors. The distribution of electricity prices, reliability of supply, and overall CO2 emissions at equilibrium are analytically found for fully competitive markets with and without inflexible generation. A method to determine long-term equilibrium in markets with a mix of competitive and inflexible generators and a strategic supplier is proposed and illustrated.

Stochastic modeling of future wind generation scenarios

This work uses historical data from existing wind generation facilities as a sample of a larger future population of wind generation to create realistic long term time series of future wind generation scenarios. Models are created that reasonably capture both the deterministic and random characteristics of wind generation that are locally unique. Observed correlations in outputs between existing wind generators are used to create scenarios of future wind generation that can estimate the impact of greater diversity of wind generation on overall wind generation variability. Publically available historical data for ten wind generation facilities in Alberta are used to illustrate the methods proposed.

A reduced model of the Alberta electric system for policy, regulatory, and future development studies

This paper describes a reduced model of the Alberta electric system developed to provide a platform for studying how variations in the market structure may impact system operation, electricity prices and long-term reliability of supply. As well, the model described in this paper provides a suitable platform for studying the potential impacts of large scale integration of wind generation on transmission congestion, reliability of supply, and electricity prices on the Alberta electric system.

Integrated planning of Natural Gas and electricity distribution networks with the presence of distributed natural gas fired generators

A sequential recourse stochastic optimization approach to solving the long-term integrated planning problem of a Natural Gas (NG) distribution system and Natural Gasfired Distributed Generators (NGDGs) is presented. The NGDG location and sizing problem under uncertain demand is solved in the first stage. The computed location and size of NGDG is employed to compute the NG demand at each node. The deterministic mixed integer non-linear programming NG optimal pipeline route selection problem is solved in the second stage. The solution methodology is illustrated using a simple case study over a long term planning period of 20 years. This work extends previous heuristic based approaches dependent on consideration of limited candidate solutions by employing a two stage recourse stochastic optimization technique and an analytical solution technique for solving the integrated problem. The proposed model allows for planning the future integration of NGDG and NG-pipelines without having to populate a set of expansion options.