John Nellthorp

Transport project appraisal in the European Union

This paper reviews transport appraisal methods in use in the countries of the European Union. A key element of the paper is an examination of the range of costs and benefits included in appraisal and the degree of consensus on their measurement and valuation. There is a strong consensus on the treatment of a number of direct impacts, where monetary valuation and inclusion in cost benefit analysis is usual. There is less agreement on the treatment of the environmental and social impacts. Recent developments are in the direction of comprehensive multi-modal approaches and a greater use of multi-criteria analysis.

Economic appraisal of European transport projects: The state-of-the-art revisited

Substantial investment has been made at national and European level in transport infrastructure over the past 50 years and is likely to continue in the future. The need to appraise transport projects in economic and social terms has developed alongside this in both scope and complexity. The state-of-the-art in the economic appraisal of transport projects is reviewed, progress is assessed and future challenges are identified. The review addresses the general framework, treatment of major impacts, presentation of outputs and issues such as uncertainty. It draws on national practice in Western European countries, which varies substantially reflecting a range of cultural and economic differences. Some points of commonality exist and the principle of monetizing direct transport impacts is generally accepted. Progress has been made towards the measurement of environmental impacts, but the assessment of the wider impacts remains under-developed. Increased sophistication and complexity has brought increasing data...

Sustainability Assessment: The Definition Deficit

ABSTRACT Much work has focused on the development of indicator sets to monitor changes in the sustainability of transport. Such indicator sets are however, often quite divorced from those used in decision-making and fail to include clear sustainability goals to work towards. This research describes the development of a sustainability appraisal framework in conjunction with a series of key decision-makers in England. A case study of a real set of strategy options tested in a metropolitan area is outlined and the results used to assess the extent to which current strategy development in the United Kingdom produces the information required to both assess and communicate progress towards sustainability. The results suggest that although sustainability exists as a concept, it is poorly defined. This definition deficit has serious implications for the types of strategies tested. First, information on some aspects of sustainability is not produced and so these aspects are marginalized. Secondly, the lack of policy goals and the dominant welfare economics assessment paradigm allow unsustainable strategies to be justified provided they perform better than an unsustainable ‘do-minimum’. The paper concludes with some recommendations for the policy and research communities to bridge the current gap in thinking.

Introducing Willingness‐to‐pay for Noise Changes into Transport Appraisal: An Application of Benefit Transfer

Abstract Numerous research studies have elicited willingness‐to‐pay values for transport‐related noise. However, in many industrialized countries including the UK, noise costs and benefits are still not incorporated into appraisals for most transport projects and policy changes. This paper describes the actions recently taken in the UK to address this issue, comprising: primary research based on the city of Birmingham; an international review of willingness‐to‐pay evidence; the development of values using benefit transfers over time and locations; and integration with appraisal methods. Amongst the main findings are: that the willingness‐to‐pay estimates derived for the UK are broadly comparable with those used in appraisal elsewhere in Europe; that there is a case for a lower threshold at 45 dB(A)Leq,18h rather than the more conventional 55 dB(A); and that values per dB(A) increase with the noise level above this threshold. There are significant issues over the valuation of rail versus road noise, the neglect of non‐residential noise and the valuation of high noise levels in different countries. Conclusions are drawn regarding the feasibility of noise valuation based on benefit transfers in the UK and elsewhere, and future research needs in this field are discussed.

Transport projects, programmes and policies: Evaluation needs and capabilities

The Role of Evaluation: Transport appraisal in a policy context, Peter Mackie and John Nellthorp Strategic transport planning evaluation - the Scandinavian experience, Henning Lauridsen Old myths and new realities of transport infrastructure assessment - implications for EU interventions in Central Europe, Deike Peters Norwegian urban road tolling - what role for evaluation?, Odd I. Larsen. Technical Aspects of Evaluation: Spatial economic impacts of transport infrastructure investments, Jan Oosterhaven and Thijs Knaap The economic development effects of transport investments, David Banister and Yossi Berechman European versus national level evaluation - the case of the PBKAL high-speed rail project, Rana Roy Welfare basis of evaluation, Marco Ponti Conceptual foundations of cost-benefit analysis - a minimalist account, Robert Sugden. Evaluation in the Policy Process: Impact assessment of strategic road management and development plan of Finnish road administration, Eeva Linkama, Mervi Karhula, Seppo Lampinen and Anna Saarlo Major infrastructure transport projects decision-making process - interactions between outputs and outcomes as a contemporary public action, Marianne Ollivier-Trigalo Involving stakeholders in the evaluation of transport pricing, Jose M. Viegas and Rosario Macario Accessibility analysis concepts and their application to transport policy, programme and project evaluation, Derek Halden Strategic environmental assessment and its relationship to transportation projects, Paul Tomlinson and Chris Frey.

Health impacts of free bus travel for young people: evaluation of a natural experiment in London

Background We used the introduction of free bus travel for young people in London in 2005 as a natural experiment with which to assess its effects on active travel, car use, road traffic injuries, assaults, and on one measure of social inclusion, total number of trips made. Methods A controlled before–after analysis was conducted. We estimated trips by mode and distances travelled in the preintroduction and postintroduction periods using data from London Travel Demand Surveys. We estimated rates of road traffic injury and assault in each period using STATS19 data and Hospital Episode Statistics, respectively. We estimated the ratio of change in the target age group (12–17 years) to the change in adults (ages 25–59 years), with 95% CIs. Results The proportion of short trips travelled by bus by young people increased postintroduction. There was no evidence for an increase in the total number of bus trips or distance travelled by bus by young people attributable to the intervention. The proportion of short trips by walking decreased, but there was no evidence for any change to total distance walked. Car trips declined in both age groups, although distance travelled by car decreased more in young people. Road casualty rates declined, but the pre–post ratio of change was greater in young people than adults (ratio of ratios 0.84; 95% CI 0.82 to 0.87). Assaults increased and the ratio of change was greater in young people (1.20; 1.13 to 1.27). The frequency of all trips by young people was unchanged, both in absolute terms and relative to adults. Conclusions The introduction of free bus travel for young people had little impact on active travel overall and shifted some travel from car to buses that could help broader environmental objectives.

National Road User Charging: Theory and Implementation

The potential benefits of introducing road user charging, in terms of limiting the negative effects of driving such as congestion and harmful emissions, outstrip those that could be achieved with fuel tax alone. In this chapter, we explore the theory and evidence underpinning road user charging, with a particular focus on the role of the policy in addressing climate change damage costs. In practice, countries have been hesitant to adopt national road user charging for cars. With the exception of the city state of Singapore, none has yet done so. Instead, road-related taxes, mainly on fuel and car ownership, are commonplace and a major source of tax revenue. It emerges that there is a diverse patchwork of approaches to charging for road use throughout the world, and varying calls for reform. Greenhouse gas reduction is not always at the centre of the road user charging debate. However, national road user charging appears to offer a holistic solution: it is therefore interesting to explore what role within it climate change costs should take, and what impact on climate change such a solution might have.

European Innovations in Multi-modal Assessment: How Will They Support and Enhance the Public Policy Process?

This chapter is written as a comment on current practice in the multi-modal evaluation of transport projects. In particular, it attempts to trace the recent development of ideas underlying practical transport evaluation, during a period which has seen changes in methodology in many countries.