John P. Frendreis

Allocating Coalition Payoffs by Conventional Norm: An Assessment of the Evidence from Cabinet Coalition Situations

A problem in the application of formal theories of coalition formation has been whether a conventional rule governs payoff allocations. Specifically, it has been suggested that certain ministerial portfolios are much more desirable than others, and so are allocated in a manner substantially different from that which might characterize the payoff distribution seen as a whole. Using data from 132 European coalition governments (1945-1978), this paper presents strong evidence that a proportionality rule governs all aspects of coalition payoffs. We consider the differences in the findings of previous research with an eye to both methodological and theoretical adequacy. In particular, the difficulties of basing inferences on comparisons of correlation coefficients are discussed. Finally, we demonstrate that such slight deviations from the rule of proportional division (a rule based on the size of party actors) as occur are also related to the size factor-i.e., smaller actors may be overpaid when their larger partners feel the coalition is secure.

Contending Models of Cabinet Stability

A spirited debate has arisen over the best approach to the analysis of the durability of governing coalitions in parliamentary democracies. In this controversy, Kaare Strom enters a number of criticisms of the stochastic modeling approach offered by Eric C. Browne, John P. Frendreis, and Dennis W. Gleiber, and by Claudio Cioffi-Revilla. In turn, Browne and his colleagues join the issue.

The Electoral Relevance of Local Party Organizations

We examine the role that one group of party units—county party organizations—play in electoral politics, based on electoral and county party organizational data collected during 1980–84. Local party chairs report their organizations are involved in a number of electorally relevant activities, including candidate recruitment, joint planning with candidate organizations, and various independent campaign activities. The data demonstrate that county party organizations are indeed effective. The probability of a minority partys running candidates for lower-level offices, which appears to contribute to higher vote totals for higher-level offices, is a function of the local strength and activity level of the party; whereas direct effects are seen to be small. These data suggest that even if mainly at the candidate recruitment stage of the process, party organizations play an important role in local electoral politics.

Accuracy and Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasting by the Administration, the CBO, and the Federal Reserve Board

Short-term forecasts of nominal GNP/GDP growth, inflation, and unemployment by the administration, the Congressional Budget Office, and the Federal Reserve Board are compared for accuracy and for political bias. The most accurate forecasting is done by the CBO, with the Fed a close second. There is also a partisan bias at work within the administration, indicating that decision-makers internalize their policy fears by exaggerating the macroeconomic problem of concern to their core political constituency. Thus, Republican administrations over-forecast inflation and Democratic administrations over-forecast unemployment.

Nationalization of the Electorate in the United States

A current debate within the field of U.S. politics revolves around the extent to which the electorate is nationalized, that is, responds to national-level political forces. We provide additional evidence to help resolve this debate. Using the variance-components model of political effects developed by Stokes, we analyze presidential, senatorial, gubernatorial, and congressional races for the period 1962-1984. The results indicate that presidential races are highly nationalized, and congressional races largely localized. Senate and gubernatorial races are found to have a large state-level component to them. The analysis is also split into two segments to ascertain if a change in political effects is seen during this relatively short time frame; no such differences are found. We conclude that nationalization is not a process that can be understood from evidence provided by congressional races alone. Our results suggest that constituencies respond to political forces in a complex way, reacting to factors that are most relevant to a particular electoral contest.

The Study of Cabinet Dissolutions in Parliamentary Democracies

While earlier research stressed the importance of attributes of the government, parliament, and political system in determining the point of governmental dissolution, the most recent studies emphasize the random character of this phenomenon. This article describes the points of convergence and divergence between these distinct research phases. Ultimately these differing approaches are seen to be complementary, both conceptually and in their ability to predict postwar governmental dissolutions in 12 western parliamentary democracies. The next theoretical step should be the formulation of a model combining both static and random elements, a model which identifies the ways in which political events change the ability of governments to continue in office.

Predicting Legislative Output in the First One-Hundred Days, 1897-1995

This study applies OLS and Poisson regression analysis to predicting the legislative output of Congress during the first Hundred Days of 1897 to 1995. The celebrated One Hundred Days of 1933 has not encouraged researchers to try to identify the structural, political, and incumbency variables that matter systematically across a range of Congresses. Here the 25 presidential Hundred Days are included along with 25 mid-term “hundred days” for comparative purposes. Four conclusions are reached. First, (1) adverse economic conditions and (2) greater electoral support for congressional candidates of the Presidents party are generally associated with higher levels of 100-days enactments. Second, there is a marked drop-off in 100-days enactments beginning with the 81st Congress, which we speculate may be attributed to the growth of subcommittees that added another layer to the legislative process. Third, Presidents Theodore Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, and Franklin D. Roosevelt arguably exhibited some independent effects on Hundred Days enactments, whereas two other “skilled” legislative leaders-Lyndon Johnson and Ronald Reagan-did not. Finally, the 1933 Hundred Days were exceptional but not unique because their productivity was linked to the confluence of systemic political variables and crisis conditions and, moreover, because the most important 1933 Hundred Days laws were Depression-specific enactments and not general purpose legislation.

“A Hundred Miles of Dry”: Religion and the Persistence of Prohibition in the U.S. States

Our fundamental objective in this article is to explain why certain counties within the U.S continue to restrict the sale of alcohol at the start of the 21st century. What factors identified as important for the initial drive for Prohibition remain important nearly 80 years later? We assess to what extent social, political, and economic variables are related to the presence of restrictions on the sale of alcohol at the county-level across the United States. Analyzing contemporary county-level data from over 3,000 U.S. counties, the strongest factor associated with “dry” status of a county is the religious composition, specifically the presence of Evangelical Protestants. Conversely, a larger concentration of Roman Catholics inhibits prohibition in a county. The regional character of the political geography of contemporary prohibition—the phenomenon is almost entirely Southern—appears to be driven by the uneven distribution of different religious adherents across the country.

A model of decision making and the public service professional

This article offers a reformulation of the concept of professionalism as it applies to public sector decision making. After critically evaluating existing work, we present a role theoretic model of public sector decision making that provides a precise conceptual and operational meaning to the term professionalism. We then evaluate the models applicability to public sector actors, using city managers as an example. Finally, we discuss some of the public policy implications of increasing public service professionalization.

Modeling Spatial Diffusion Reaction to Wellhofer

Wellhofers adaptation of Klingmans suggestion that spatial diffusion be modeled as an autoregressive spatial series is questioned on two counts. First, this approach is inappropriate for most classes of diffusion models, including dendritic diffusion systems. Second, the procedure by which Wellhofer has ordered the observations in his Argentine illustration produces a database that bears almost no resemblance to the underlying pattern of causation he wishes to examine and actually creates an additional source of bias in the analysis.