Raymond Tatalovich

Accuracy and Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasting by the Administration, the CBO, and the Federal Reserve Board

Short-term forecasts of nominal GNP/GDP growth, inflation, and unemployment by the administration, the Congressional Budget Office, and the Federal Reserve Board are compared for accuracy and for political bias. The most accurate forecasting is done by the CBO, with the Fed a close second. There is also a partisan bias at work within the administration, indicating that decision-makers internalize their policy fears by exaggerating the macroeconomic problem of concern to their core political constituency. Thus, Republican administrations over-forecast inflation and Democratic administrations over-forecast unemployment.

The politics of abortion : a study of community conflict in public policy making

The author describes the various stages in the abortion policy making process. Since the 1960s the abortion issue has been put on the public agenda a major accomplishment considering the religious opposition to even discussing the issue publicly. Since the case of Roe v. Wade community conflict has been the dominant factor of the abortion issue; a community conflict involves all social classes and persists for a long period of time. The success of political activity in bringing the issue to a head lies partly in the ability to cultivate public approval and claim a degree of legitimacy for change. The goals of the 1960s movements were limited and met with some success; by the 1970s the goals were more encompassing and pro-life groups gained some sympathy as well. In the 1970s arguments about the meaning of human life and the integrity of civil rights were common and the issue became intertwined with that of womens rights. As an emotional issue abortion has brought more people into the debate than other political problems especially among the lower socioeconomic classes. In considering turning the consensus into public policy one must consider the great degree of controversy surrounding abortion and the tendency of lawmakers to adhere to grass roots opinions when dealing with highly emotional matters. Actual provision of services involving medical professionals is another problem which may vary in degree from region to region. Further research should involve the following problems: 1) what other types of issues seem comparable to abortion 2) what specific variables impinge upon all of these issues and 3) can any paradigm be used to explain this policy.

Predicting Legislative Output in the First One-Hundred Days, 1897-1995

This study applies OLS and Poisson regression analysis to predicting the legislative output of Congress during the first Hundred Days of 1897 to 1995. The celebrated One Hundred Days of 1933 has not encouraged researchers to try to identify the structural, political, and incumbency variables that matter systematically across a range of Congresses. Here the 25 presidential Hundred Days are included along with 25 mid-term “hundred days” for comparative purposes. Four conclusions are reached. First, (1) adverse economic conditions and (2) greater electoral support for congressional candidates of the Presidents party are generally associated with higher levels of 100-days enactments. Second, there is a marked drop-off in 100-days enactments beginning with the 81st Congress, which we speculate may be attributed to the growth of subcommittees that added another layer to the legislative process. Third, Presidents Theodore Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, and Franklin D. Roosevelt arguably exhibited some independent effects on Hundred Days enactments, whereas two other “skilled” legislative leaders-Lyndon Johnson and Ronald Reagan-did not. Finally, the 1933 Hundred Days were exceptional but not unique because their productivity was linked to the confluence of systemic political variables and crisis conditions and, moreover, because the most important 1933 Hundred Days laws were Depression-specific enactments and not general purpose legislation.

Cultural and Institutional Factors Affecting Political Contention over Moral Issues

Abortion and same-sex marriage are moral issues that remain highly contentious in the political life of the United States compared to other countries. This level of contention is explained through comparison with Canada. Contrasts in culture and institutions shaping issues and the political avenues that allow their enactment account for differences in the tenor of politics in the two countries.

“A Hundred Miles of Dry”: Religion and the Persistence of Prohibition in the U.S. States

Our fundamental objective in this article is to explain why certain counties within the U.S continue to restrict the sale of alcohol at the start of the 21st century. What factors identified as important for the initial drive for Prohibition remain important nearly 80 years later? We assess to what extent social, political, and economic variables are related to the presence of restrictions on the sale of alcohol at the county-level across the United States. Analyzing contemporary county-level data from over 3,000 U.S. counties, the strongest factor associated with “dry” status of a county is the religious composition, specifically the presence of Evangelical Protestants. Conversely, a larger concentration of Roman Catholics inhibits prohibition in a county. The regional character of the political geography of contemporary prohibition—the phenomenon is almost entirely Southern—appears to be driven by the uneven distribution of different religious adherents across the country.

Perspectives on the politics of abortion

Acknowledgments Introduction: Beyond Polemics and Toward Healing by Carol J.C. Maxwell Abortion Rights Alchemy and the U.S. Supreme Court: Whats Wrong and How to Fix It by Eileen L. McDonagh The Sources and Consequences of Public Attitudes toward Abortion by Clyde Wilcox The Catholic Church as a Political Actor by Mary C. Segers The Constitutional Underpinnings of the Abortion Debate by L. Kent Sezer Conclusion: Perspectives on the Politics of Abortion by Patricia Fauser, Jeanne Lewis, Joel Setzen, Finian Taylor, and Ted G. Jelen Selected Bibliography Index

The Elusive Quest for Presidential Success

Managing the Presidency: The Eisenhower Legacy-From Kennedy to Reagan. By Phillip G. Henderson. (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1988. Pp. 212.

A spatial analysis of voting on health care issues: United States House of Representatives, 96th Congress, First Session

29.95.) The Trusteeship Presidency: Jimmy Carter and the United States Congress. By Charles 0. Jones. (Baton Rouge and London: Louisiana State University Press, 1988. Pp. 225.

Winning awards and gaining recognition: An impact analysis of APSA section book prizes

24.95.) Jimmy Carter as President: Leadership and the Politics of the Public Good. By Erwin C. Hargrove. (Baton Rouge and London: Louisiana State University Press, 1988. Pp. 211.

Abortion Politics in North America

24.95.) The Press and the Carter Presidency. By Mark J. Rozell. (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1989. Pp. 235.