John Peirson

Non-linearities in Electricity Demand and Temperature: Parametric versus Non-parametric Methods

This paper investigates the relationship between outside air temperature and the residential demand for space heating energy. These nonlinearities are investigated empirically using high frequency panel data for a sample of U.K. households, and both parametric and nonparametric methods for identifying nonlinearities are examined. The econometric evidence finds support for important nonlinearities across the range of observed temperatures and points to limitations in the use of parametric functional forms. Copyright 1997 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Road Accidents and Traffic Flows: An Econometric Investigation

This paper develops an empirical model of the relationship between road traffic accidents and traffic flows. The analysis focuses on the accident externality which is mainly determined by the difference between the marginal and average risks. The model is estimated using a new dataset which combines hourly London traffic count data from automated vehicle recorders together with police records of road accidents. The accident-flow relationship is seen to vary considerably between different road classes and geographical areas. More importantly, even having controlled for these and other differences, the accident externality is shown to vary significantly with traffic flows. In particular, while the accident externality is typically close to zero for low to moderate traffic flows, it increases substantially at high traffic flows.

How large is the gap between present and efficient transport prices in Europe

The concluding chapter of this volume analyzes the gap between present transport prices and efficient transport prices with the help of 6 case studies previously discussed. These case studies focus on the pricing of both urban and interurban transport. Long-range international transport flows have not been studied; airline and shipping problems are not treated. All other modes are considered. Case study results are presented for 4 urban areas and for non-urban transport in 2 countries: Belgium and Ireland. For each, a reference equilibrium was constructed with unchanged policies for 2005. To measure the gap between expected prices in the reference case and efficient prices, the full optimum prices were next computed. The same modeling tool was used for all the case studies, and is well suited to discuss optimal short-run pricing of infrastructure, but not to study optimal investment decisions in infrastructure.

Residential energy demand and the interaction of price and temperature: British experimental evidence

The responsiveness of heating energy demand to pricing is shown to be dependent on temperature and vice versa. This is investigated empirically using residential electricity demand data obtained under conditions of price variation from a British time-of-use pricing experiment. Results confirm that consumer responses to higher electricity prices are conditional on temperature levels, particularly during the daytime and for households with high overall levels of electricity consumption and previous experience of time-of-use tariffs.

TRAINING AND ESTABLISHMENT SURVIVAL

Training decisions are affected by beliefs about the returns to training, surrounding which firms face considerable uncertainty. We model the consequent association between training, profitability and establishment survival. We propose a plausible definition of optimism about training effectiveness, and show that more optimistic firms train more. We then present estimates of the relationship between training and the likelihood of medium-term commercial survival. We find that increased training of non-manual workers in large establishments is associated with a greater chance of survival; however, disaggregation reveals that the association differs across occupational groups. In smaller establishments, increased training for Craft and Technical workers is associated with better chances of survival, while for Professional workers the opposite effect is found.

Electricity load and temperature: Issues in dynamic specification

Abstract This paper considers the dynamic specification of the relationship between electricity load and air temperature. It is shown that this relationship has an important dynamic component and that ignoring this appears to bias the estimated effects of temperature on load. It is also shown that forms of autoregressive specification may give a good explanation of present load even if there are no dynamics in the casual relation. The assumptions underlying effective temperature and its empirical validity are investigated. Dynamic specification of the temperature response is shown to be conditional on the time of day, which brings into question the use of the effective temperature concept.

Time-of-use electricity pricing: Evidence from a British experiment

Seemingly unrelated regression (SURE) analysis is applied to data from a British time-of-use (TOU) pricing experiment. It is shown that consumption changes are statistically significant and important but vary by consumption strata. The results have implications for demand system analysis of TOU data.

Estimating the external costs of UK passenger transport: the first step towards an efficient transport market

The external costs of transport are important in the analysis of transport policies and projects. Such analyses require the estimation of external costs on a consistent and appropriate basis. It is appropriate to measure these costs at the margin, and in this paper, for the first time, the marginal external costs for UK passenger transport are estimated. These costs were estimated by type and time of journey for different sectors of the UK passenger transport market. Where necessary, new techniques and models were developed to estimate marginal external costs. Otherwise, standard techniques and existing valuations were used. The estimates of the marginal external costs of local air pollution and global warming are surprising low. Possible errors and omissions are examined for these estimates.

The London Congestion Charging Scheme: The Evidence

In February 2003, the Mayor of London introduced road pricing for driving in a small area of Central London. The London Congestion Charging Scheme uses relatively simple technology, was implemented over two and a half years, faced political opposition and required the efforts of a determined political champion who refused to be put off. The £5 charge has reduced car movements by about 30%, and increased bus use and traffic speeds. The unexpectedly large reduction in car use is partly explained by the possibility of taking routes around the charging zone. For this reason, the implied elasticity of about −0.8 is greater than many other previous elasticity estimates. It is suggested that extending the Scheme to a larger area or applying a similar scheme to certain other cities may not be quite so successful.

An overview of policy instruments

(2014). A method for the deliberate and deliberative selection of policy instrument mixes for climate change adaptation, Ecology and Society 19(2): 58.