Roger W. Vickerman

Accessibility and Economic Development in Europe

VICKERMAN R., SPIEKERMANN K. and WEGENER M. (1999) Accessibility and economic development in Europe, Reg. Studies 33 , 1-15. There is continuing debate on the role of transport infrastructure and changes in accessibility on regional economic development. The emphasis in recent European Union policy on the development of trans-European Networks (TENs) provides a focus for a re-evaluation. Much of the debate assumes that improvements in accessibility will lead to economic development and, by implication, to greater cohesion. This paper identifies some of the major difficulties in defining a simple measure of accessibility for use in such studies and proceeds to evaluate new measures of time-space and accessibility surfaces which allow for greater disaggregation at a spatial and sectoral level. An assessment of the implications for regional development in the EU is then made. The conclusions cast doubt on the ability of TENs to promote greater convergence in both accessibility and economic development. VICKE...

The regional impacts of Trans-European networks

A key element in the process of European integration is that ofTrans-European Networks which will affect the poorer peripheral states of the existing Community, potential new members in East and Central Europe, but also have considerable significance for the congested central regions. There is a recognition of the need for considerable infrastructural investment, which will have considerable implications for both the inter- and intra-regional distribution of economic activity and which address to two central concerns of cohesion and subsidiarity. This paper examines the scope and nature of the transport TENs proposed and analyses the problems posed by these changes and the options for policy within the EC, especially that on the development of the Communitys regions. The paper argues that such an approach requires a careful definition of measures of accessibility which relate to both intra- and inter-regional access; to all modes of transport, reflecting a regions economic structure and transport needs; and to levels of service on infrastructure. It concludes that an increasing emphasis on the Community significance of new transport infrastructure will be needed for both planning and financial reasons, especially given the increasing emphasis on environmental considerations in transport, but that this implies increasing tensions at the regional level which will need to be addressed in the interests of cohesion.

Evaluation methodologies for transport projects in the United Kingdom

This paper reviews the basic methodology for the evaluation of transport projects in the UK and explains the changes currently being undertaken. The paper identifies the key elements as a very rigorous economic evaluation of direct user benefits, but rather less progress on the evaluation of environmental or wider economic effects. Changes are currently being made to develop a common framework for multi-modal applications.

Opportunity, Preference and Constraint: an Approach to the Analysis of Metropolitan Migration

The paper aims to consider how the fragmentation in the literature on migration may be overcome and to develop an integrated model of migration which can be applied to all types of population flow in the London metropolitan region. The need for such an approach follows from the complexity of flows observed at the 112-zone level of disaggregation as well as the unresolved problems of the literature. Despite this catholicity of aim the theoretical basis of the model is essentially economic, drawing on aspects of human capital, and search and spatial choice theories with an emphasis on the interaction between three concepts, opportunities, preference and constraints, in determining observed levels of migration.

Road Accidents and Traffic Flows: An Econometric Investigation

This paper develops an empirical model of the relationship between road traffic accidents and traffic flows. The analysis focuses on the accident externality which is mainly determined by the difference between the marginal and average risks. The model is estimated using a new dataset which combines hourly London traffic count data from automated vehicle recorders together with police records of road accidents. The accident-flow relationship is seen to vary considerably between different road classes and geographical areas. More importantly, even having controlled for these and other differences, the accident externality is shown to vary significantly with traffic flows. In particular, while the accident externality is typically close to zero for low to moderate traffic flows, it increases substantially at high traffic flows.

Cost — Benefit Analysis and Large-Scale Infrastructure Projects: State of the Art and Challenges

In this paper I review the problems surrounding the use of cost-benefit analysis (CBA) in the appraisal of large-scale infrastructure projects. I define the requirements of a best-practice transport CBA and show the difficulties in achieving these for large-scale projects. The main difficulties discussed are those of forecasting over long time periods, dealing with imperfect competition in transport-using sectors to obtain estimations of wider transport benefits, introducing private finance and appraising network effects. I conclude that CBA can remain a valuable tool as part of the appraisal process but that the inputs to a CBA have to be carefully assessed, and complementary approaches, such as computable general equilibrium modelling, have a useful role to play for very large or network projects.

How large is the gap between present and efficient transport prices in Europe

The concluding chapter of this volume analyzes the gap between present transport prices and efficient transport prices with the help of 6 case studies previously discussed. These case studies focus on the pricing of both urban and interurban transport. Long-range international transport flows have not been studied; airline and shipping problems are not treated. All other modes are considered. Case study results are presented for 4 urban areas and for non-urban transport in 2 countries: Belgium and Ireland. For each, a reference equilibrium was constructed with unchanged policies for 2005. To measure the gap between expected prices in the reference case and efficient prices, the full optimum prices were next computed. The same modeling tool was used for all the case studies, and is well suited to discuss optimal short-run pricing of infrastructure, but not to study optimal investment decisions in infrastructure.

The Channel Tunnel: Consequences for Regional Growth and Development

The construction of a Channel Tunnel has been heralded as having a major impact on the neighboring regions of Kent and Nord-Pas de Calais, and also on other British regions, both through short-run impacts of construction and in the longer run through changes in accessibility and competitiveness. This paper makes a preliminary assessment of its likely impact on regional development in these regions and in the EEC as a whole. A notional model of regional growth and development is used that emphasizes the role of transport infrastructure, and an assessment is made of the extent of transport cost changes and their impacts on location and economic activity. The general conclusion is that the Channel Tunnel itself is likely to have a fairly marginal impact, but that taken together with other infrastructural investments, especially in France, there could eventually be some additional fundamental changes in the pattern of regional development.

Measuring Changes in Regional Competitiveness: The Effects of International Infrastructure Investments

The paper has two major aims, to review traditional approaches to the measurement of regional competitiveness and to outline possible problems in applying these to cases where international comparisons are involved and major changes in competitiveness are likely. This is based on research on a case study of the effects of building the Channel Tunnel between Britain and France. This raises particular questions about the impact of new transport infrastructure, especially in the context of the attempts to reduce the effects of national frontiers within the European Community. The main conclusion concerns the need to adopt a more dynamic model of the effects of transport cost changes. The paper notes the extreme practical difficulties in making precise forecasts of these effects, but highlights the need to recognise the substitutability of transport for other factors of production, the importance of subjective factors and the likely changes in the spatial organisation of production.

Recent Evolution of Research into the Wider Economic Benefits of Transport Infrastructure Investments

The debate on whether there are wider economic benefits from transport infrastructure investments continues to cause debate and controversy. This debate occurs both between analysts seeking to find a robust method for identifying and measuring the size of such benefits and between policy makers seeking to justify or refute the need for a particular investment. It is timely to review progress on arriving at a consensus view of the contribution of infrastructure to the wider economy which is consistent with best practice in appraisal. This paper will review progress and try to bring out some common themes for discussion. The main aim of this paper is to bring together the various alternative methodological approaches to this problem which differs not just in the detail of the analysis, but more significantly in the scale at which the analysis is undertaken. It is argued that it is of particular importance to understand the way in which changes in the provision of transport affect microeconomic decisions, including those within firms and households, and to understand the operation of markets as well as to model the resultant flows and their macroeconomic consequences.