John S. Earle

Privatization, Competition, and Budget Constraints: Disciplining Enterprises in Russia

We investigate whether privatization, competitive forces, and the hardening of budget constraints played efficiency-enhancing roles in Russia in the immediate post-privatization period. We find evidence of a positive impact of privatization on labor productivity: a 10% point increase in private share ownership raises real sales per employee by 3–5%. The evidence on product market competition is weaker, depending on model specification. Soft budget constraints are usually found to reduce restructuring but the effect is small and insignificant. We find that in terms of their impacts on productivity, privatization and subsidy reduction are substitutes; privatization and competition (measured as the geographic scope of markets) are complements; and that competition and subsidy reduction are independent. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2003

Employment and Wage Effects of Privatisation: Evidence from Hungary, Romania, Russia and Ukraine

We use longitudinal methods and universal panel data on 30,000 initially state-owned manufacturing firms in four transition economies to estimate the impacts of privatization on employment and wages. The results in all four countries consistently reject job losses and they never imply large wage cuts from privatization to either foreign or domestic owners. The domestic privatization estimates are close to zero for employment, while for wages they are negative but small in magnitude; estimated foreign privatization effects are nearly always positive and sometimes large for both outcome variables. We find that the negligible consequences of domestic privatization result from effects on scale, productivity, and costs that are large but offsetting in Hungary and Romania, and from small effects of all types in Russia and Ukraine. The positive employment outcome of foreign ownership results from a substantial scale-expansion effect that dominates the productivity-improvement effect, and the positive wage outcome from productivity improvement dominating the cost-reduction effect.

Incidence and duration of unemployment in Romania

Abstract The paper highlights the main characteristics of registered unemployment in Romania using a large sample of microdata (11,504 individual observations). First, we examine the composition of the unemployment pool, as well as the elapsed unemployment duration along different dimensions. Second, we present some characteristics of experienced workers, whose narrow specific skills make them one of, if not the most, vulnerable categories in the unavoidable process of labour reallocation. 1

Hours of Work and Trade Unionism

This article is concerned with hours worked per employee in unionized labor markets. First the determination of hours is examined in the context of various bargaining models and, in the process, these models are nested in a general framework. Then cross-section and time-series data are drawn on to quantify the effects of unionism on hours worked. The time-series data from 1920 to 1980 imply a negative impact of unionism on full-time hours while cross-section data for 1978 suggest some notable differences in both the direction and the magnitude of this impact across occupations and industries.

Privatization, Competition and Reform Strategies: Theory and Evidence from Russian Enterprise Panel Data

A critical, but largely unexamined assumption in the debate over reform policy design, concerns the complementarity or substitutability of market competition and private ownership in increasing firm efficiency. We analyse a simple Cournot model that distinguishes two aspects of privatization interacting with market opening: privatization of a firm and privatization of its competitors. Under plausible conditions, the model implies that privatizing a firm is a substitute for exposing it to competitive markets, but privatizing its competitors is complementary. Our empirical analysis uses augmented 3-factor translog production functions estimated on 1992-99 panel data for 13,288 Russian manufacturing enterprises. We find that nonstate ownership of a firm reduces the marginal efficiency impact from product market dispersion, but the share of its competitors that are nonstate increases this marginal impact. Disaggregating nonstate ownership, we find that the shares of competitors in all three nonstate types are complementary with dispersed market structure, where the strongest complementarity involves foreign ownership. The evidence suggests that an important indirect impact of private ownership may be the intensification of market competition, and thus that competition only among state-owned enterprises may be ineffectual in stimulating them to increase efficiency.

Long-term unemployment, social assistance and labor market policies in Romania

Long-term unemployment in Romania has grown in both absolute and relative terms in the last few years, leading to increased expenditures, both absolutely and in relation to unemployment benefits, for the support allowance and social assistance programs and for pensions to labor force drop-outs. The paper uses a variety of data sources, including registration information, labor force surveys, and our own survey of registered unemployed (SRU) to describe these trends in the characteristics of Romanian unemployment and to examine differences across unemployment benefit (UB), short-term and long-term support allowance (SA) recipients. We employ the data to estimate the transition flow probability from the UB to the SA program; discuss the work incentives, income maintenance effects, and public costliness of the labor market and social insurance (including pension and disability) policies; and investigate the effects of the policies and of other characteristics of the unemployed and the areas where they live on the hazard for the escape rate from unemployment for UB and SA recipients separately.

Worker Training in a Restructuring Economy: Evidence from the Russian Transition

We use 1994-1998 data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) to measure the incidence and determinants of several types of worker training and to estimate the effects of training on workers’ interindustry, interfirm, and occupational mobility, their labor force transitions, and their wage growth in Russia compared to the U.S. We hypothesize that the shock of economic liberalization in Russia may raise the benefits of training, particularly retraining for new jobs, but uncertainty concerning the revaluation of skills may raise the costs, with an overall ambiguous effect on the amount of training undertaken. The RLMS indicates a lower rate of formal training than studies have found for the U.S., suggesting that the second effect dominates. Previous schooling is estimated to affect the probability of training positively, but the relationship is much stronger for additional training in the same field than for retraining for new fields, consistent with the hypothesis that schooling and training are complementary but become more substitutable in a restructuring environment. Additional training in workers’ current fields is estimated to reduce mobility and earnings, suggesting inertial programs from the pre-transition era. Retraining in new fields increases all types of worker mobility and has higher returns than those typically observed for training in the U.S., but it also raises the variance of earnings and the probability of unemployment, consistent with a search view of such retraining. Given the large returns to retraining, the efforts of Russian workers to learn new skills may increase as uncertainty is resolved and restructuring proceeds.

Measuring defense conversion in Russian industry

This paper develops and implements a methodology for quantifying defense conversion in Russian manufacturing in the early 1990s. A two‐sector, three‐good model is employed to analyze the flows of resources from military to non‐military uses and applied to firm‐level survey data under alternative definitions of military production and the MIC. An aggregation framework is constructed to estimate the total quantity and change in Russian military production, the latter decomposed into intrafirm and intersectoral resource reallocation and overall industrial decline. Although there is evidence of substantial decline in military production, the data show little reallocation to productive civilian uses, neither within the MIC nor to other manufacturing sectors.

Incentive contracts, corporate governance, and privatization funds in Romania

This paper analyzes the governance problems of the Romanian Private Ownership Funds (POFs), critical institutions both in the privatization process and in the future ownership and control structure of the Romanian economy. Although the POFs share similar problems with mass privatization intermediaries elsewhere, the satisfactory performance of Romanian funds faces additional obstacles due to the bureaucratic character of their initial organization, the continuing involvement of the state in their governance and operation, and the complexity of the tasks that they are supposed to accomplish. The POFs are charged not only with governing companies and managing their portfolios, but with part of the task of selling the remaining state shareholdings. We review instruments of corporate governance that could potentially induce them to perform these tasks, and conclude that the standard practices are likely to be seriously deficient in the case of the Romanian POFs. One possibility which has not yet been adopted is an incentive payment scheme for POF executives. We analyze the difficulties of implementing such a scheme with a multi-task principal-agent model, and propose a practical solution to the incentive design problem. We argue that, while some such method is certainly necessary to induce the POFs to perform their assigned tasks even approximately, it is by no means sufficient to enliven the Romanian privatization process.

Competition Enhancing Policies and Infrastructure: Evidence from Russia

This Paper investigates whether the efficiency effect of product market dispersion is a function of the infrastructural and policy environment. We hypothesise that more developed transportation and communication infrastructure and lower government regulation may reduce transaction costs, intensifying the competition associated with a given market structure, and we use data from the recently liberalized and regionally diverse country of Russia to test the hypothesis. Estimating translog production functions on a large 1992-99 panel of manufacturing firms, we find that the efficiency impact of market dispersion varies positively with the regional density of highway, railroad and telephone infrastructure, but negatively with regional price regulation and the share of votes received by the Communist Party.