John Siddorn

A highly spatially resolved ecosystem model for the North West European Continental Shelf

Abstract This paper outlines an approach to complex spatio-temporal marine ecosystem modelling as applied to the North Western European Continental Shelf. The model presented here goes further than previous work, as we combine a higher resolution hydrodynamic model, the POL-3DB baroclinic model with the European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model. This combination of models includes many of the processes (benthic-pelagic coupling, dynamic zooplankton and nitrogen, phosphorous and silicate cycling) previous authors have identitied as missing from their models and partially responsible for the inadequacies of their simulations. Spatial distributions of key physical and ecological variables taken from the three dimensional high resolution hydrodynamic/ecological simulations are presented to illustrate how spatial and temporal variations in physical processes determine the onset of the spring bloom in the North Sea. A basic validation of these simulations is presented, which indicates the model reproduces many of the features of the seasonal cycles of nutrients and phytoplankton, but fails to simulate mesozooplankton biomass in a convincing manner. The reasons for this are discussed along with potential new research directions.

An operational ocean forecast system incorporating NEMO and SST data assimilation for the tidally driven European North-West shelf

A new operational ocean forecast system, the Atlantic Margin Model implementation of the Forecast Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM-AMM), has been developed for the European North West Shelf (NWS). An overview of the system is presented including shelf specific developments of the physical model, the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO), and the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data assimilation scheme. Initial validation is presented of the tides and model SST. The SST skill of the system is significantly improved by the data assimilation scheme. Finally, an analysis of the seasonal tidal mixing fronts shows that these, in general, agree well with observation, but data assimilation does not significantly alter their positions.

Forecasting the ocean state using NEMO:The new FOAM system

The Forecasting Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM) deep ocean analysis and forecasting system has been running operationally at the Met Office for over 10 years.The system has recently been transitioned to use the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) community model as its core ocean component. This paper gives an end-to-end description of the FOAM-NEMO operational system and presents some preliminary assessment of operational and hindcast integrations including verification statistics against observations and forecast verification against model best guess fields.Validation of the sea surface height fields is presented, which suggests that the system captures and tracks the major mesoscale features of the ocean circulation reasonably well, with some evidence of improvement in higher-resolution configurations.

Evaluating a new NEMO-based Persian/Arabian Gulf tidal operational model

A 3-D baroclinic pre-operational model, including tides of the Persian/Arabian Gulf, has been developed at the Met Office using the NEMO framework. The non-assimilative model is believed to represent a significant improvement over the existing POLCOMS based system, benefiting from: extended domain; improved resolution; more accurate representation of coasts and bathymetry; improved representation of tides; and improved representation of salinity. As expected, with sea surface temperature (SST) data assimilation, the accuracy of SST is significantly improved. However, data assimilation also appears to help reduce thermal biases throughout the water column, within the limited accuracy of a climatology comparison. Operational implementation occurred in late 2012.

The CO5 configuration of the 7 km Atlantic Margin Model: large-scale biases and sensitivity to forcing, physics options and vertical resolution

We describe the physical model component of the standard Coastal Ocean version 5 configuration (CO5) of the European North West Shelf (NWS). CO5 was developed jointly between the Met Office and the National Oceanography Centre. CO5 is designed with the seamless approach in mind, which allows for modeling of multiple timescales for a variety of applications from short-range ocean forecasting through to climate projections. The configuration constitutes the basis of the latest update 5 to the ocean and data assimilation components of the Met Office’s operational Forecast Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM) for the NWS. A 30.5 year non-assimilating control hindcast of CO5 was integrated from January 1981 to June 2012. Sensitivity simulations were conducted with reference to the control run. The control run is compared against a previous non-assimilating Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modelling System (POLCOMS) hindcast of the NWS. The CO5 control hindcast is shown to have much reduced biases compared to POLCOMS. Emphasis in the system description is weighted to 10 updates in CO5 over previous versions. Updates include an increase in vertical resolution, a new vertical coordinate stretching function, the replacement of climatological riverine sources with the pan-European hydrological model E-HYPE, a new Baltic boundary condition and switching from directly imposed atmospheric model boundary fluxes to calculating the fluxes within the model using bulk formula. Sensitivity tests of the updates are detailed with a view to attributing observed changes in the new system from the previous system and suggesting future directions of research to further improve the system. 15

Assessing equatorial surface currents in the FOAM Global and Indian Ocean models against observations from the global tropical moored buoy array

Surface currents from 2007–2008 hindcasts of the Forecast Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM) Global and Indian Ocean models are assessed against observations at 46 global tropical moored buoy array sites. Zonal (u) currents are less challenging to model than meridional flows (v) due to their lower frequency variability. The assimilative global model has reasonable skill for zonal currents but less skill for meridional currents. The assimilative models have higher skill than the corresponding non-assimilative models. A too-strong westward bias of the order of 20cm/s is evident along the equator in all model versionsused in this study. No extra skill is evident in the high resolution (1/12°) regional model compared to the coarser resolution (1/4°) global model.

Current status of deepwater oil spill modelling in the Faroe-Shetland Channel, Northeast Atlantic, and future challenges

As oil reserves in established basins become depleted, exploration and production moves towards relatively unexploited areas, such as deep waters off the continental shelf. The Faroe-Shetland Channel (FSC, NE Atlantic) and adjacent areas have been subject to increased focus by the oil industry. In addition to extreme depths, metocean conditions in this region characterise an environment with high waves and strong winds, strong currents, complex circulation patterns, sharp density gradients, and large small- and mesoscale variability. These conditions pose operational challenges to oil spill response and question the suitability of current oil spill modelling frameworks (oil spill models and their forcing data) to adequately simulate the behaviour of a potential oil spill in the area. This article reviews the state of knowledge relevant to deepwater oil spill modelling for the FSC area and identifies knowledge gaps and research priorities. Our analysis should be relevant to other areas of complex oceanography.

Recent Change—North Sea

This chapter discusses past and ongoing change in the following physical variables within the North Sea: temperature, salinity and stratification; currents and circulation; mean sea level; and extreme sea levels. Also considered are carbon dioxide; pH and nutrients; oxygen; suspended particulate matter and turbidity; coastal erosion, sedimentation and morphology; and sea ice. The distinctive character of the Wadden Sea is addressed, with a particular focus on nutrients and sediments. This chapter covers the past 200 years and focuses on the historical development of evidence (measurements, process understanding and models), the form, duration and accuracy of the evidence available, and what the evidence shows in terms of the state and trends in the respective variables. Much work has focused on detecting long-term change in the North Sea region, either from measurements or with models. Attempts to attribute such changes to, for example, anthropogenic forcing are still missing for the North Sea. Studies are urgently needed to assess consistency between observed changes and current expectations, in order to increase the level of confidence in projections of expected future conditions.