John Twigg

Managing the health effects of climate change

Climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century. Effects of climate change on health will affect most populations in the next decades and put the lives and wellbeing of billions of people at increased risk. During this century, earthﾒs average surface temperature rises are likely to exceed the safe threshold of 2ﾰC above preindustrial average temperature. Rises will be greater at higher latitudes, with medium-risk scenarios predicting 2ﾖ3ﾰC rises by 2090 and 4ﾖ5ﾰC rises in northern Canada, Greenland, and Siberia. In this report, we have outlined the major threatsﾗboth direct and indirectﾗto global health from climate change through changing patterns of disease, water and food insecurity, vulnerable shelter and human settlements, extreme climatic events, and population growth and migration. Although vector-borne diseases will expand their reach and death tolls, especially among elderly people, will increase because of heatwaves, the indirect effects of climate change on water, food security, and extreme climatic events are likely to have the biggest effect on global health.

NGO Initiatives in Risk Reduction: An Overview

NGOs appear to be well placed to play a significant role in natural disaster mitigation and preparedness (DMP), working, as they do, with poorer and marginalised groups in society. However, there is little information on the scale or nature of NGO DMP activities. This paper reports the findings of a study seeking to address that gap. It confirms that NGOs are involved in a diverse range of DMP activities but that a number of them are not labelled as such. Moreover, evidence of the demonstrable quality and benefits of DMP involvement is poor. The paper concludes that a number of problems need to be overcome before DMP can be satisfactorily mainstreamed into NGO development and post-disaster rehabilitation programmes. However, there are some early indications of momentum for change.

Standardisation of the USGS Volcano Alert Level System (VALS): analysis and ramifications

The standardisation of volcano early warning systems (VEWS) and volcano alert level systems (VALS) is becoming increasingly common at both the national and international level, most notably following UN endorsement of the development of globally comprehensive early warning systems. Yet, the impact on its effectiveness, of standardising an early warning system (EWS), in particular for volcanic hazards, remains largely unknown and little studied. This paper examines this and related issues through evaluation of the emergence and implementation, in 2006, of a standardised United States Geological Survey (USGS) VALS. Under this upper-management directive, all locally developed alert level systems or practices at individual volcano observatories were replaced with a common standard. Research conducted at five USGS-managed volcano observatories in Alaska, Cascades, Hawaii, Long Valley and Yellowstone explores the benefits and limitations this standardisation has brought to each observatory. The study concludes (1) that the process of standardisation was predominantly triggered and shaped by social, political, and economic factors, rather than in response to scientific needs specific to each volcanic region; and (2) that standardisation is difficult to implement for three main reasons: first, the diversity and uncertain nature of volcanic hazards at different temporal and spatial scales require specific VEWS to be developed to address this and to accommodate associated stakeholder needs. Second, the plural social contexts within which each VALS is embedded present challenges in relation to its applicability and responsiveness to local knowledge and context. Third, the contingencies of local institutional dynamics may hamper the ability of a standardised VALS to effectively communicate a warning. Notwithstanding these caveats, the concept of VALS standardisation clearly has continuing support. As a consequence, rather than advocating further commonality of a standardised VALS, we recommend adoption of a less prescriptive VALS that is scalable and sufficiently flexible for use by local stakeholders via standardised communication products designed to accommodate local contingency, while also adhering to national policy.

The Human Factor in Early Warnings: Risk Perception and Appropriate Communications

The aim of this paper is to highlight one of the most important factors influencing the effectiveness of early warning (EW) systems — that is, how those who are at risk from hazards perceive that risk, and how this in turn influences their response to warnings. It takes particular note of how vulnerable people, principally in the Third World, assess risk in the context of their lives and livelihoods as a whole. The paper goes on to consider how, by taking such factors into account, EW systems might be made more effective. To achieve this, it is argued, conventional ideas about how to communicate with communities at risk need to be updated by drawing upon approaches that are used in many long-term development projects in the Third World.

Disability and public shelter in emergencies

This paper reviews current practice regarding people with disabilities in public (or communal) emergency shelter management. It shows that provision for disabled people generally fails to meet their needs and describes the main problem areas. These problems are set in the context of management and staff failings as well as underlying weaknesses in disaster management structures as a whole. The latter include outdated attitudes towards disability, the invisibility of people with disabilities to emergency officials and relief workers and misguided assumptions about the capacities of disabled people and their organizations to manage and respond to crises. The paper concludes with suggestions about how these challenges might be overcome.

Chapter 26 Consequences of long-term volcanic activity for essential services in Montserrat: challenges, adaptations and resilience

Abstract Long-term volcanic activity at Soufrière Hills Volcano (SHV), Montserrat (1995–ongoing) has created challenges for society and the resilience of the essential services (infrastructure) that support it. This paper explores the consequences, adaptations and resilience of essential services through interviews with their staff. We find that quick fixes for essential service reinstatement in the north of Montserrat have prevailed. Yet, the legacy of this approach inhibits functionality through inadequate facilities and the perception of sites as temporary, stalling investment. Emigration resulted in staff shortages, retraining requirements and challenges for the viability of specialist services. Low-impact hazards exacerbate shortcomings in essential services, causing power cuts, corrosion, and temporary closures of schools, clinics and the airport. Adaptations developed over time include changes to roofing materials, the addition of back-up systems, collaborative working and the development of contingency plans. Resilience of essential services has improved through decentralization, adaptations, and via strong community networks and tolerance of disruptions. Barriers to increasing resilience include the expense of some adaptations and the current reluctance to invest in essential services, hindering development. We offer some lessons for policy and practice to guide post-crisis redevelopment, through engagement with the community and by complementing community-level adaptations with investment to address long-term needs.

Improved Methods for Fire Risk Assessment in Low-Income and Informal Settlements

Fires cause over 300,000 deaths annually worldwide and leave millions more with permanent injuries: some 95% of these deaths are in low- and middle-income countries. Burn injury risk is strongly associated with low-income and informal (or slum) settlements, which are growing rapidly in an urbanising world. Fire policy and mitigation strategies in poorer countries are constrained by inadequate data on incidence, impacts, and causes, which is mainly due to a lack of capacity and resources for data collection, analysis, and modelling. As a first step towards overcoming such challenges, this project reviewed the literature on the subject to assess the potential of a range of methods and tools for identifying, assessing, and addressing fire risk in low-income and informal settlements; the process was supported by an expert workshop at University College London in May 2016. We suggest that community-based risk and vulnerability assessment methods, which are widely used in disaster risk reduction, could be adapted to urban fire risk assessment, and could be enhanced by advances in crowdsourcing and citizen science for geospatial data creation and collection. To assist urban planners, emergency managers, and community organisations who are working in resource-constrained settings to identify and assess relevant fire risk factors, we also suggest an improved analytical framework based on the Haddon Matrix.

Attitude before method: disability in vulnerability and capacity assessment

Many agencies working on disaster risk reduction use vulnerability and capacity assessment (VCA) to identify vulnerable groups, to assess their needs and capacities, and to develop appropriate programmes and policies. In theory, VCA offers a good opportunity to incorporate disabled peoples needs and resources in counter-disaster programming. This paper seeks to establish and explain the extent to which disability is included in VCA in practice. It reviews VCA reports and findings, formal VCA guidance, and other methodological literature. The review indicates that disability is a neglected issue in VCA practice and that manuals and guidelines, while promoting the general ideal of inclusiveness, are insufficiently aware of the challenges to achieving this in practice and do not offer enough guidance on how to reach and include disabled people. Ways of overcoming these problems are suggested. However, the real challenge may be to change core attitudes and perceptions of disability within implementing organisations.

Menstrual hygiene: a ‘silent’ need during disaster recovery

Post-disaster relief and recovery operations seldom focus on women’s priorities regarding menstrual hygiene. There is an increasing awareness to incorporate inclusive, participatory, and gender-sensitive strategies for implementation of response programmes. This article presents empirical findings related to menstrual hygiene management (MHM), demonstrating it is integral to women’s privacy and safety during recovery. Using case studies from India, the 2012 Assam floods and 2013 Cyclone Phailin in Odisha, this article explores menstrual hygiene practices in a post-disaster context. The data were collected through participatory learning and action tools such as focus group discussions, household interviews, priority ranking, and observations. It emerged that menstrual hygiene was overlooked at the household level during recovery; women and adolescent girls faced seclusion and isolation, exacerbating privacy and security concerns post-disasters. Some humanitarian agencies have an ad hoc approach towards MHM...

Private needs, public responses: vulnerable people’s flood-disrupted mobility

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the experiences of vulnerable people during flood events, impacts of changes in mobility on well-being and the extent to which frontline services, emergency planning officers and other service providers allocate resources for vulnerable members of the community to meet the challenges posed by floods. Design/methodology/approach – In-depth qualitative interviews carried out with 15 vulnerable residents, seven community representatives and eight service providers. Findings – Vulnerable people’s well-being was negatively affected by the disruption to travel caused by floods, though support from the community to some extent redressed these negative feelings. Whilst there seems to be a strong response from both the community and the local authorities to the mobility needs of vulnerable people during floods, what seems to be missing is an equal response from the private sector in terms of provision of transport services to access goods such as food and money. Pr...