John W. Whitney

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analyses for Ground Motions and Fault Displacement at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses were conducted to estimate both ground motion and fault displacement hazards at the potential geologic repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The study is believed to be the largest and most comprehensive analyses ever conducted for ground-shaking hazard and is a first-of-a-kind assessment of probabilistic fault displacement hazard. The major emphasis of the study was on the quantification of epistemic uncertainty. Six teams of three experts performed seismic source and fault displacement evaluations, and seven individual experts provided ground motion evaluations. State-of-the-practice expert elicitation processes involving structured workshops, consensus identification of parameters and issues to be evaluated, common sharing of data and information, and open exchanges about the basis for preliminary interpretations were implemented. Ground-shaking hazard was computed for a hypothetical rock outcrop at -300 m, the depth of the potential waste emplacement drifts, at the designated design annual exceedance probabilities of 10-3 and 10-4. The fault displacement hazard was calculated at the design annual exceedance probabilities of 10-4 and 10-5.

Physical Limits on Ground Motion at Yucca Mountain

Abstract Physical limits on possible maximum ground motion at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, the designated site of a high-level radioactive waste repository, are set by the shear stress available in the seismogenic depth of the crust and by limits on stress change that can propagate through the medium. We find in dynamic deterministic 2D calculations that maximum possible horizontal peak ground velocity (PGV) at the underground repository site is 3.6 m/sec, which is smaller than the mean PGV predicted by the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) at annual exceedance probabilities less than 10 -6 per year. The physical limit on vertical PGV, 5.7 m/sec, arises from supershear rupture and is larger than that from the PSHA down to 10 -8 per year. In addition to these physical limits, we also calculate the maximum ground motion subject to the constraint of known fault slip at the surface, as inferred from paleoseismic studies. Using a published probabilistic fault displacement hazard curve, these calculations provide a probabilistic hazard curve for horizontal PGV that is lower than that from the PSHA. In all cases the maximum ground motion at the repository site is found by maximizing constructive interference of signals from the rupture front, for physically realizable rupture velocity, from all parts of the fault. Vertical PGV is maximized for ruptures propagating near the P -wave speed, and horizontal PGV is maximized for ruptures propagating near the Rayleigh-wave speed. Yielding in shear with a Mohr–Coulomb yield condition reduces ground motion only a modest amount in events with supershear rupture velocity, because ground motion consists primarily of P waves in that case. The possibility of compaction of the porous unsaturated tuffs at the higher ground-motion levels is another attenuating mechanism that needs to be investigated.

Volumetric analysis and hydrologic characterization of a modern debris flow near Yucca Mountain, Nevada

Abstract On July 21 or 22, 1984, debris flows triggered by rainfall occurred on the southern hillslope of Jake Ridge, about 6 km east of the crest of Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Rain gages near Jake Ridge recorded 65 mm and 69 mm on July 21, and 20 mm and 17 mm on July 22. Rates of rainfall intensity ranged up to 73 mm/h on the twenty-first, and 15 mm/h on the twenty-second. Digital elevation models with 2.0 m grid-node spacing, measured from pre-storm and post-storm aerial stereo-photographs, were used to map hillslope erosion and the downslope distribution of debris. Volumetric calculations indicate that about 7040 m 3 of debris was redistributed on the 49,132 m 2 hillslope study area during the two-day storm period. About 4580 m 3 (65%) of the eroded sediment was deposited within the study area and the remaining 35% was deposited outside the study area in a short tributary to Fortymile Wash and in the wash itself. The maximum and mean depths of erosion in the study area were about 1.8 m and 5 cm, respectively. The mean depths of erosion on the upper and middle hillslope were 27 cm and 4 cm, respectively. The mean depth of deposition on the lower hillslope was 16 cm. Analysis of the values of cumulative precipitation in the context of the precipitation-frequency atlas of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicates that precipitation from the main storm on July 21 was more than double that expected, on average, once during a 100-year-period. The relations of precipitation intensity/duration, developed from data recorded at a nearby precipitation gage, indicate a storm interval of 500 years or greater. The amount of erosion caused by such a storm is primarily dependent on three variables; storm intensity, development of the drainage network on the hillslope, and the amount of available colluvium. Additionally, the erosive ability of successive storms of equal intensity will decrease because such storms would tend to progressively isolate and reduce the amount of colluvium available. The preservation of Pleistocene deposits on hillslopes of Yucca Mountain, in general, indicates that erosional events that strip 5% of the available hillslope colluvium must be quite rare. We conclude that the recurrence interval of an erosional event comparable to the July, 1984 event is probably much longer than 500 years.

A methodology for probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis (PFDHA)

We present a methodology for conducting a site-specific probabilistic analysis of fault displacement hazard. Two approaches are outlined. The first relates the occurrence of fault displacement at or near the ground surface to the occurrence of earthquakes in the same manner as is done in a standard probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for ground shaking. The methodology for this approach is taken directly from PSHA methodology with the ground-motion attenuation function replaced by a fault displacement attenuation function. In the second approach, the rate of displacement events and the distribution for fault displacement are derived directly from the characteristics of the faults or geologic features at the site of interest. The methodology for probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis (PFDHA) was developed for a normal faulting environment and the probability distributions we present may have general application in similar tectonic regions. In addition, the general methodology is applicable to any region and we indicate the type of data needed to apply the methodology elsewhere.

Scanning electron microscope method for rock-varnish dating

Rock-varnish coatings on cobbles from geomorphic surfaces and exposed deposits in arid environments are an effective medium for dating over a time range of several thousand to a few million years. A new analytical method for dating of rock varnish is presented wherein the varnish cation ratio (VCR) is determined by a scanning electron microscope (SEM) equipped with an energy dispersive X-ray analyzer (EDAX). The experimental SEM method is a nondestructive technique that has several potential advantages over the original method of analysis, described by R. I. Dorn, that uses particle-induced X-ray emission (PIXE) of varnish scraped from rock surfaces. The SEM method can potentially eliminate analytical errors due to contamination from rock substrate because variations in varnish thickness and irregularities on the substrate surface are examined before cation ratios are determined. Because varnish surfaces remain intact, varnish sites that yield anomalous results may be reanalyzed or verified. In addition, the general accessibility of scanning electron microscopes will make rock-varnish dating more widely available for use in Quaternary studies. Cation ratios were calculated for rock varnish from Espanola Basin, New Mexico, and the Yucca Mountain region, Nevada, and were used to construct rock-varnish dating curves for these areas.

Relict colluvial boulder deposits as paleoclimatic indicators in the Yucca Mountain region, southern Nevada

Early to middle Pleistocene boulder deposits are common features on southern Nevada hillslopes. These darkly varnished, ancient colluvial deposits stand but in stark contrast to the underlying light-colored bedrock of volcanic tuffs, and they serve as minor divides between drainage channels on modern hillslopes. To demonstrate the antiquity of these stable hillslope features, six colluvial boulder deposits from Yucca Mountain, Nye County, Nevada, were dated by cation- ratio dating of rock varnish accreted on boulder surfaces. Estimated minimum ages of these boulder deposits range from 760 to 170 ka. Five additional older deposits on nearby Skull and Little Skull Mountains and Buckboard Mesa yielded cation-ratio minimum-age estimates of 1.38 Ma to 800 ka. An independent cosmogenic chlorine-36 surface exposure date was obtained on one deposit, which confirms an estimated early to middle Quaternary age. These deposits have provided the oldest age estimates for unconsolidated hillslope deposits in the southwestern United States. We suggest that the colluvial boulder deposits were produced during early and middle Pleistocene glacial/pluvial episodes and were stabilized during the transition to drier interglacial climates. By comparison to modern periglacial environments, winter minimum monthly temperatures of -3 to -5 °C were necessary to initiate freeze-thaw conditions of such vigor to physically weather relatively large volumes of large boulders from the upper hillslopes of the Yucca Mountain area. These conditions imply that early and middle Pleistocene glacial winter temperatures were at least 1 to 3 °C colder than existed during the last Pleistocene glacial episode and 7 to 9 °C colder than present. We conclude that at least several early and middle Pleistocene glacial episodes were colder, and perhaps wetter, than glacial episodes of the late Pleistocene in the southern Great Basin. Geomorphic processes necessary to form these colluvial boulder deposits are not active on modern hillslopes in the southern Great Basin. In addition, the lack of young, relatively unvarnished colluvial boulder deposits on these hillslopes suggests that boulder-forming conditions did not exist during the late Pleistocene in this region. Modern semiarid hillslope processes primarily erode colluvium during infrequent high-intensity storms. The preservation of old, thin hillslope deposits and the less-than-2-m incision by hillslope runoff adjacent to these deposits, however, indicate that extremely low denudation rates have occurred on resistant volcanic hillslopes in the southern Great Basin during Quaternary time.

The landscape geometry and active tectonics of northwest Greece

When a region is tectonically deformed, its geometry changes. Some of these changes produce easily identified and often readily datable morphological features such as regions of rapid uplift and subsidence, sediment ponds, or river terraces. These features are usually secondary to the main active structures and consequently do not provide information about them directly. We show, however, that simple models using boundary-element methods can be adapted to relate the evolution of these minor features to motion on major structures. This adds substantially to the information available to determine motion on such features. In this paper, we apply the technique to northwest Greece. We show that, in addition to the long recognized compressional component of motion in Epirus, a substantial left-lateral strike-slip component of motion must be present. The modeling allows us to identify a regional slip vector of N275°E. This slip vector suggests that the plate configuration assumed by previous workers must be modified. A new configuration is proposed that remains consistent with the data used for earlier interpretations and our new data. It is proposed that the Medina Wrench is a significant active structure and that a period of quiescence explains the low seismic activity at present. The plate configuration and angular rotation rates that we suggest require that the Gulf of Arta is associated with a triple junction. Using the slip vectors we have defined for the plates meeting at this junction, we model the regions of uplift and subsidence in the region. The ability of this model to explain many features associated with the Gulf provides assurance that our overall tectonic model is correct.

Geomorphic and Hydrologic Assessment of Erosion Hazards at the Norman Municipal Landfill, Canadian River Floodplain, Central Oklahoma

The Norman, Oklahoma, municipal landfill closed in 1985 after 63 years of operation, because it was identified as a point source of hazardous leachate composed of organic and inorganic compounds. The landfill is located on the floodplain of the Canadian River, a sand-bed river characterized by erodible channel boundaries and by large variation in mean monthly discharges. In 1986, floodwaters eroded riprap protection at the southern end of the landfill and penetrated the landfills clay cap, thereby exposing the landfill contents. The impact of this moderate-magnitude flood event (Q12) was the catalyst to investigate erosion hazards at the Norman landfill. This geomorphic investigation analyzed floodplain geomorphology and historical channel changes, flood-frequency distributions, an erosion threshold, the geomorphic effectiveness of discharge events, and other factors that influence erosion hazards at the landfill site. The erosion hazard at the Norman landfill is a function of the location of the landfill with respect to the channel thalweg, erosional resistance of the channel margins, magnitude and duration of discrete discharge events, channel form and hydraulic geometry, and cumulative effects related to a series of discharge events. Based on current climatic conditions and historical channel changes, a minimum erosion threshold is set at bankfull discharge (Q = 572 m3/s). The annual probability of exceeding this threshold is 0.53. In addition, this analysis indicates that peak stream power is less informative than total energy expenditures when estimating the erosion potential or geomorphic effectiveness of discrete discharge events. On the Canadian River, long-duration, moderate-magnitude floods can have larger total energy expenditures than shorter-duration, high-magnitude floods and therefore represent the most serious erosion hazard to floodplain structures.

Use of Fragile Geologic Structures as Indicators of Unexceeded Ground Motions and Direct Constraints on Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

Abstract We present a quantitative procedure for constraining probabilistic seismic hazard analysis results at a given site, based on the existence of fragile geologic structures at that site. We illustrate this procedure by analyzing precarious rocks and undamaged lithophysae at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The key metric is the probability that the feature would have survived to the present day, assuming that the hazard results are correct. If the fragile geologic structure has an extremely low probability of having survived (which would be inconsistent with the observed survival of the structure), then the calculations illustrate how much the hazard would have to be reduced to result in a nonnegligible survival probability. The calculations are able to consider structures the predicted failure probabilities of which are a function of one or more ground‐motion parameters, as well as structures that either rapidly or slowly evolved to their current state over time. These calculations are the only way to validate seismic hazard curves over long periods of time.