Thomas C. Hanks

Earthquake Stress Drops, Ambient Tectonic Stresses and Stresses That Drive Plate Motions

A variety of geophysical observations suggests that the upper portion of the lithosphere, herein referred to as the elastic plate, has long-term material properties and frictional strength significantly greater than the lower lithosphere. If the average frictional stress along the non-ridge margin of the elastic plate is of the order of a kilobar, as suggested by the many observations of the frictional strength of rocks at mid-crustal conditions of pressure and temperature, the only viable mechanism for driving the motion of the elastic plate is a basal shear stress of several tens of bars. Kilobars of tectonic stress are then an ambient, steady condition of the earths crust and uppermost mantle. The approximate equality of the basal shear stress and the average crustal earthquake stress drop, the localization of strain release for major plate margin earthquakes, and the rough equivalence of plate margin slip rates and gross plate motion rates suggest that the stress drops of major plate margin earthquakes are controlled by the elastic release of the basal shear stress in the vicinity of the plate margin, despite the existence of kilobars of tectonic stress existing across vertical planes parallel to the plate margin. If the stress differences available to be released at the time of faulting are distributed in a random, white fasbion with a mean-square value determined by the average earthquake stress drop, the frequency of occurrence of constant stress drop earthquakes will be proportional to reciprocal faulting area, in accordance with empirically known frequency of occurrence statistics.

A bilinear source-scaling model for M-log a observations of continental earthquakes

The Wells and Coppersmith (1994) M -log A data set for continental earthquakes (where M is moment magnitude and A is fault area) and the regression lines derived from it are widely used in seismic hazard analysis for estimating M , given A . Their relations are well determined, whether for the full data set of all mechanism types or for the subset of strike-slip earthquakes. Because the coefficient of the log A term is essentially 1 in both their relations, they are equivalent to constant stress-drop scaling, at least for M ≤ 7, where most of the data lie. For M > 7, however, both relations increasingly underestimate the observations with increasing M . This feature, at least for strike-slip earthquakes, is strongly suggestive of L-model scaling at large M . Using constant stress-drop scaling (Δσ = 26.7 bars) for M ≤ 6.63 and L-model scaling (average fault slip ū = α L , where L is fault length and α = 2.19 × 10-5) at larger M , we obtain the relations \batchmode \documentclass[fleqn,10pt,legalpaper]{article} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amsmath} \pagestyle{empty} \begin{document} \[\mathbf{M}=\mathrm{log}{\ }A+3.98{\pm}0.03,{\ }A{\leq}537{\ }\mathrm{km}^{2}\] \end{document} and \batchmode \documentclass[fleqn,10pt,legalpaper]{article} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amsmath} \pagestyle{empty} \begin{document} \[\mathbf{M}=4{/}3{\ }\mathrm{log}{\ }A+3.07{\pm}0.04,{\ }A{>}537{\ }\mathrm{km}^{2}.\] \end{document} These prediction equations of our bilinear model fit the Wells and Coppersmith (1994) data set well in their respective ranges of validity, the transition magnitude corresponding to A = 537 km2 being M = 6.71. Manuscript received 15 April 2001.

Dynamics of Liquefaction During the 1987 Superstition Hills, California, Earthquake

Simultaneous measurements of seismically induced pore-water pressure changes and surface and subsurface accelerations at a site undergoing liquefaction caused by the Superstition Hills, California, earthquake (24 November 1987; M = 6.6) reveal that total pore pressures approached lithostatic conditions, but, unexpectedly, after most of the strong motion ceased. Excess pore pressures were generated once horizontal acceleration exceeded a threshold value.

NGA-West2 Research Project

The NGA-West2 project is a large multidisciplinary, multi-year research program on the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) models for shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions. The research project has been coordinated by the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER), with extensive technical interactions among many individuals and organizations. NGA-West2 addresses several key issues in ground-motion seismic hazard, including updating the NGA database for a magnitude range of 3.0–7.9; updating NGA ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for the “average” horizontal component; scaling response spectra for damping values other than 5%; quantifying the effects of directivity and directionality for horizontal ground motion; resolving discrepancies between the NGA and the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) site amplification factors; analysis of epistemic uncertainty for NGA GMPEs; and developing GMPEs for vertical ground motion. This paper presents an overview of the NGA-West2 research program and its subprojects.

M-logA Observations for Recent Large Earthquakes

Abstract Using a magnitude ( M )-log area ( A ) dataset augmented with seven large ( M >7.0) earthquakes occurring since Wells and Coppersmith (1994), this short note assesses the current validity of the bilinear M -log A relations for continental, strike-slip earthquakes proposed by Hanks and Bakun (2002), in particular the L -model scaling at M >7. The relations determined by Hanks and Bakun (2002) are only insignificantly altered, leaving these bilinear M -log A relations as valid now as when first proposed.

Dating offset fans along the Mojave section of the San Andreas fault using cosmogenic 26Al and 10Be

Analysis of cosmogenic 1 0 Be and 2 6 Al in samples collected from exposed boulders (n = 20) and from buried sediment (n = 3) from offset fans along the San Andreas fault near Little Rock, California, yielded ages, ranging from 16 to 413 ka, which increase with dis-Lance from their source at the mouth of Little Rock Creek. In order to determine the age of the relatively younger fans, the erosion rate of the boulders and the cosmogenic nuclide inheritance from exposure prior to deposition in the fan were established. Cosmogenic nuclide inheritance values that range between 8.5 x 10 3 and 196 × 10 3 atoms 1 0 Be g - 1 quartz were determined by measuring the concentrations and ratios of 1 0 Be and 2 6 Al in boulders (n = 10) and fine sediment (n = 7) at the outlet of the present active stream. Boulder erosion rate, ranging between 17 and 160 mm k.y. - 1 , was estimated by measuring 1 0 Be and 2 6 Al concentrations in nearby bedrock outcrops (n = 8). Since the boulders on the fans represent the most resistant rocks in this environment, we used the lowest rate for the age calculations. Monte Carlo simulations were used to determine ages of 16 ′ 5 and 29 ′ 7 ka for the two younger fan surfaces. Older fans (older than 100 ka) were dated by analyzing 1 0 Be and 2 6 Al concentrations in buried sand samples. The ages of the three oldest fans range between 227 ′ 242 and 413 ′ 185 ka. Although fan age determinations are accompanied by large uncertainties, the results of this study show a clear trend of increasing fan ages with increasing distance from the source near Little Rock Creek and provide a long-term slip rate along this section of the San Andreas fault. Slip rate along the Mojave section of the San Andreas fault for the past 413 k.y. can be determined in several ways. The average slip rate calculated from the individual fan ages is 4.2 ′ 0.9 cm yr - 1 . A linear regression through the data points implies a slip rate of 3.7 ′ 1.0 cm yr - 1 . A most probable slip rate of 3.0 ′ 1.0 cm yr - 1 is determined by using a Χ 2 test. These rates suggest that the average slip along the Mojave section of the San Andreas fault has been relatively constant over this time period. The slip rate along the Mojave section of the San Andreas fault, determined in this study, agrees well with previous slip rate calculations for the Quaternary.

Uncertainties in slip-rate estimates for the Mission Creek strand of the southern San Andreas fault at Biskra Palms Oasis, southern California

This study focuses on uncertainties in estimates of the geologic slip rate along the Mission Creek strand of the southern San Andreas fault where it offsets an alluvial fan (T2) at Biskra Palms Oasis in southern California. We provide new estimates of the amount of fault offset of the T2 fan based on trench excavations and new cosmogenic 10Be age determinations from the tops of 12 boulders on the fan surface. We present three alternative fan offset models: a minimum, a maximum, and a preferred offset of 660 m, 980 m, and 770 m, respectively. We assign an age of between 45 and 54 ka to the T2 fan from the 10Be data, which is significantly older than previously reported but is consistent with both the degree of soil development associated with this surface, and with ages from U-series geochronology on pedogenic carbonate from T2, described in a companion paper by Fletcher et al. (this volume). These new constraints suggest a range of slip rates between ∼12 and 22 mm/yr with a preferred estimate of ∼14–17 mm/yr for the Mission Creek strand of the southern San Andreas fault. Previous studies suggested that the geologic and geodetic slip-rate estimates at Biskra Palms differed. We find, however, that considerable uncertainty affects both the geologic and geodetic slip-rate estimates, such that if a real discrepancy between these rates exists for the southern San Andreas fault at Biskra Palms, it cannot be demonstrated with available data.

Late Pleistocene to Holocene slip rates for the Gurvan Bulag thrust fault (Gobi-Altay, Mongolia) estimated with 10Be dates

[1] We surveyed morphotectonic markers along the central part of the Gurvan Bulag thrust, a fault that ruptured with the Bogd fault during the Gobi-Altay earthquake (1957, M 8.3), to document climatic and tectonic processes along the fault for the late PleistoceneHolocene period. The markers were dated using 10 Be produced in situ. Two major periods of alluviation ended at 131 ± 20 and 16 ± 4.8 ka. These appear to be contemporaneous with global climatic changes at the terminations of marine isotope stages (MIS) 6 and 2. The vertical slip rates, determined from offset measurements and surfaces ages, are 0.14 ± 0.03 mm/yr over the late Pleistocene-Holocene and between 0.44 ± 0.11 and 1.05 ± 0.25 mm/yr since the end of the late Pleistocene. The higher of these slip rates for the last � 16 kyr is consistent with paleoseismic investigations along the fault [Prentice et al., 2002], and suggests that, at the end of late Pleistocene, the fault evolved from quiescence to having recurrence intervals of 4.0 ± 1.2 kyr for surface ruptures with � 4 m vertical offset (similar to that of 1957). The inferred recurrence interval is comparable to that of the Bogd fault (3.7 ± 1.3 kyr) suggesting that the two faults may have ruptured together also earlier during the last � 16 kyr. INDEX TERMS: 7221 Seismology: Paleoseismology; 1208 Geodesy and Gravity: Crustal movements—intraplate (8110); 1824 Hydrology: Geomorphology (1625); 7230 Seismology: Seismicity and seismotectonics; 8107 Tectonophysics: Continental neotectonics; KEYWORDS: Late Pleistocene, Holocene, thrust fault, slip rate, 10Be dating, Mongolia

Physical Limits on Ground Motion at Yucca Mountain

Abstract Physical limits on possible maximum ground motion at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, the designated site of a high-level radioactive waste repository, are set by the shear stress available in the seismogenic depth of the crust and by limits on stress change that can propagate through the medium. We find in dynamic deterministic 2D calculations that maximum possible horizontal peak ground velocity (PGV) at the underground repository site is 3.6 m/sec, which is smaller than the mean PGV predicted by the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) at annual exceedance probabilities less than 10 -6 per year. The physical limit on vertical PGV, 5.7 m/sec, arises from supershear rupture and is larger than that from the PSHA down to 10 -8 per year. In addition to these physical limits, we also calculate the maximum ground motion subject to the constraint of known fault slip at the surface, as inferred from paleoseismic studies. Using a published probabilistic fault displacement hazard curve, these calculations provide a probabilistic hazard curve for horizontal PGV that is lower than that from the PSHA. In all cases the maximum ground motion at the repository site is found by maximizing constructive interference of signals from the rupture front, for physically realizable rupture velocity, from all parts of the fault. Vertical PGV is maximized for ruptures propagating near the P -wave speed, and horizontal PGV is maximized for ruptures propagating near the Rayleigh-wave speed. Yielding in shear with a Mohr–Coulomb yield condition reduces ground motion only a modest amount in events with supershear rupture velocity, because ground motion consists primarily of P waves in that case. The possibility of compaction of the porous unsaturated tuffs at the higher ground-motion levels is another attenuating mechanism that needs to be investigated.

Small earthquakes, tectonic forces.

Earthquake scaling and frequency-of-occurrence relations require that small earthquakes be just as important as larger ones in redistributing the forces that drive relative displacements across active faults of any dimension, including plate boundaries.