Jon Aars

Predicting 21st‐century polar bear habitat distribution from global climate models

Projections of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) sea ice habitat distribution in the polar basin during the 21st century were developed to understand the consequences of anticipated sea ice reductions on polar bear populations. We used location data from satellite- collared polar bears and environmental data (e.g., bathymetry, distance to coastlines, and sea ice) collected from 1985 to 1995 to build resource selection functions (RSFs). RSFs described habitats that polar bears preferred in summer, autumn, winter, and spring. When applied to independent data from 1996 to 2006, the RSFs consistently identified habitats most frequently used by polar bears. We applied the RSFs to monthly maps of 21st-century sea ice concentration projected by 10 general circulation models (GCMs) used in the Intergovern- mental Panel of Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, under the A1B greenhouse gas forcing scenario. Despite variation in their projections, all GCMs indicated habitat losses in the polar basin during the 21st century. Losses in the highest-valued RSF habitat (optimal habitat) were greatest in the southern seas of the polar basin, especially the Chukchi and Barents seas, and least along the Arctic Ocean shores of Banks Island to northern Greenland. Mean loss of optimal polar bear habitat was greatest during summer; from an observed 1.0 million km 2 in 1985-1995 (baseline) to a projected multi-model mean of 0.32 million km 2 in 2090-2099 (� 68% change). Projected winter losses of polar bear habitat were less: from 1.7 million km 2 in 1985-1995 to 1.4 million km 2 in 2090-2099 (� 17% change). Habitat losses based on GCM multi-model means may be conservative; simulated rates of habitat loss during 1985-2006 from many GCMs were less than the actual observed rates of loss. Although a reduction in the total amount of optimal habitat will likely reduce polar bear populations, exact relationships between habitat losses and population demographics remain unknown. Density and energetic effects may become important as polar bears make long-distance annual migrations from traditional winter ranges to remnant high-latitude summer sea ice. These impacts will likely affect specific sex and age groups differently and may ultimately preclude bears from seasonally returning to their traditional ranges.

Polar and brown bear genomes reveal ancient admixture and demographic footprints of past climate change

Polar bears (PBs) are superbly adapted to the extreme Arctic environment and have become emblematic of the threat to biodiversity from global climate change. Their divergence from the lower-latitude brown bear provides a textbook example of rapid evolution of distinct phenotypes. However, limited mitochondrial and nuclear DNA evidence conflicts in the timing of PB origin as well as placement of the species within versus sister to the brown bear lineage. We gathered extensive genomic sequence data from contemporary polar, brown, and American black bear samples, in addition to a 130,000- to 110,000-y old PB, to examine this problem from a genome-wide perspective. Nuclear DNA markers reflect a species tree consistent with expectation, showing polar and brown bears to be sister species. However, for the enigmatic brown bears native to Alaskas Alexander Archipelago, we estimate that not only their mitochondrial genome, but also 5–10% of their nuclear genome, is most closely related to PBs, indicating ancient admixture between the two species. Explicit admixture analyses are consistent with ancient splits among PBs, brown bears and black bears that were later followed by occasional admixture. We also provide paleodemographic estimates that suggest bear evolution has tracked key climate events, and that PB in particular experienced a prolonged and dramatic decline in its effective population size during the last ca. 500,000 years. We demonstrate that brown bears and PBs have had sufficiently independent evolutionary histories over the last 4–5 million years to leave imprints in the PB nuclear genome that likely are associated with ecological adaptation to the Arctic environment.

What are the toxicological effects of mercury in Arctic biota

This review critically evaluates the available mercury (Hg) data in Arctic marine biota and the Inuit population against toxicity threshold values. In particular marine top predators exhibit concentrations of mercury in their tissues and organs that are believed to exceed thresholds for biological effects. Species whose concentrations exceed threshold values include the polar bears (Ursus maritimus), beluga whale (Delphinapterus leucas), pilot whale (Globicephala melas), hooded seal (Cystophora cristata), a few seabird species, and landlocked Arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus). Toothed whales appear to be one of the most vulnerable groups, with high concentrations of mercury recorded in brain tissue with associated signs of neurochemical effects. Evidence of increasing concentrations in mercury in some biota in Arctic Canada and Greenland is therefore a concern with respect to ecosystem health.

Complete mitochondrial genome of a Pleistocene jawbone unveils the origin of polar bear

The polar bear has become the flagship species in the climate-change discussion. However, little is known about how past climate impacted its evolution and persistence, given an extremely poor fossil record. Although it is undisputed from analyses of mitochondrial (mt) DNA that polar bears constitute a lineage within the genetic diversity of brown bears, timing estimates of their divergence have differed considerably. Using next-generation sequencing technology, we have generated a complete, high-quality mt genome from a stratigraphically validated 130,000- to 110,000-year-old polar bear jawbone. In addition, six mt genomes were generated of extant polar bears from Alaska and brown bears from the Admiralty and Baranof islands of the Alexander Archipelago of southeastern Alaska and Kodiak Island. We show that the phylogenetic position of the ancient polar bear lies almost directly at the branching point between polar bears and brown bears, elucidating a unique morphologically and molecularly documented fossil link between living mammal species. Molecular dating and stable isotope analyses also show that by very early in their evolutionary history, polar bears were already inhabitants of the Artic sea ice and had adapted very rapidly to their current and unique ecology at the top of the Arctic marine food chain. As such, polar bears provide an excellent example of evolutionary opportunism within a widespread mammalian lineage.

Climate change and the ecology and evolution of Arctic vertebrates

Climate change is taking place more rapidly and severely in the Arctic than anywhere on the globe, exposing Arctic vertebrates to a host of impacts. Changes in the cryosphere dominate the physical changes that already affect these animals, but increasing air temperatures, changes in precipitation, and ocean acidification will also affect Arctic ecosystems in the future. Adaptation via natural selection is problematic in such a rapidly changing environment. Adjustment via phenotypic plasticity is therefore likely to dominate Arctic vertebrate responses in the short term, and many such adjustments have already been documented. Changes in phenology and range will occur for most species but will only partly mitigate climate change impacts, which are particularly difficult to forecast due to the many interactions within and between trophic levels. Even though Arctic species richness is increasing via immigration from the South, many Arctic vertebrates are expected to become increasingly threatened during this century.

Population Dynamic and Genetic Consequences of Spatial Density‐Dependent Dispersal in Patchy Populations

Predictions about sex‐specific, spatial density‐dependent dispersal and their demographic and genetic consequences were tested in experimental populations of root voles (Microtus oeconomus). Each population consisted of two demes inhabiting equal‐sized habitat patches imbedded in a barren matrix area. We used a neutral two‐allele allozyme marker to monitor gene flow. Initially, the two demes were genetically distinct and had different densities so that the size of a high‐density deme (genotype bb) was four times larger than that of a low‐density deme (genotype aa). The sex‐specific dispersal pattern was in accordance with our prediction. Male dispersal was unconditional on deme‐specific densities, and the majority of the first‐generation males became dispersed from both demes, whereas female dispersal was strongly density dependent, so that dispersal took place exclusively from the high‐density to the low‐density deme. The demographic implication of this dispersal pattern was that the initial density difference between the demes was quickly canceled out. We built a mathematical model that predicted that the initially rare allele (a) would increase in frequency given the dispersal pattern, and this was supported by our experimental data. This result relies mostly on the density‐independent male‐dispersal strategy, which presumably stems from inbreeding avoidance. Our study highlights the importance of incorporating sex‐specific dispersal strategies in population genetic models. Sex‐biased dispersal may act as a deterministic force counteracting the tendency for stochastic loss of alleles in small and fragmented populations.

PCBs and OH-PCBs in polar bear mother-cub pairs: A comparative study based on plasma levels in 1998 and 2008

The aim of this study was to examine the plasma concentrations and prevalence of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and hydroxylated PCB-metabolites (OH-PCBs) in polar bear (Ursus maritimus) mothers (n=26) and their 4 months old cubs-of-the-year (n=38) from Svalbard to gain insight into the mother-cub transfer, biotransformation and to evaluate the health risk associated with the exposure to these contaminants. As samplings were performed in 1997/1998 and 2008, we further investigated the differences in levels and pattern of PCBs between the two sampling years. The plasma concentrations of Σ(21)PCBs (1997/1998: 5710 ± 3090 ng/g lipid weight [lw], 2008: 2560 ± 1500 ng/g lw) and Σ(6)OH-PCBs (1997/1998: 228 ± 60 ng/g wet weight [ww], 2008: 80 ± 38 ng/g ww) in mothers were significantly lower in 2008 compared to in 1997/1998. In cubs, the plasma concentrations of Σ(21)PCBs (1997/1998: 14680 ± 5350 ng/g lw, 2008: 6070 ± 2590 ng/g lw) and Σ(6)OH-PCBs (1997/1998: 98 ± 23 ng/g ww, 2008: 49 ± 21 ng/g ww) were also significantly lower in 2008 than in 1997/1998. Σ(21)PCBs in cubs was 2.7 ± 0.7 times higher than in their mothers. This is due to a significant maternal transfer of these contaminants. In contrast, Σ(6)OH-PCBs in cubs were approximately 0.53 ± 0.16 times the concentration in their mothers. This indicates a lower maternal transfer of OH-PCBs compared to PCBs. The majority of the metabolite/precursor-ratios were lower in cubs compared to mothers. This may indicate that cubs have a lower endogenous capacity to biotransform PCBs to OH-PCBs than polar bear mothers. Exposure to PCBs and OH-PCBs is a potential health risk for polar bears, and the levels of PCBs and OH-PCBs in cubs from 2008 were still above levels associated with health effects in humans and wildlife.

Demographic Consequences of Movements in Subdivided Root Vole Populations

We studied three types of movements: (1) movements leading to permanent transfer of individuals between habitat patches, (2) movements (excursions) into habitat corridors and (3) into a barren matrix area, and the demographic consequences in 12 enclosed populations of the root vole, Micrototus oeconomus. Each population was subdivided into two demes inhabiting one habitat patch each. The two patches were approximately two male home range diameters apart in a vole-hostile, devegetated matrix. While the patches were connected by a narrow (0.5 m) habitat corridor for six of the populations, the other six populations inhabited isolated patches. The experiment was initiated by introducing laboratory raised founder demes onto each patch in the beginning of July. The populations were thereafter monitored by live trapping for the next 4-5 months during the snow-free season. After the snow melted the following spring the experiment was terminated by removal trapping. The experiment was run over two years (1994 and 1995) with six population replicates each year. Movements into the corridors and permanent transfers of animals between patches were registered during ordinary live trapping at 15-d intervals. Movements into the barren matrix habitat were registered continuously during the snow-free season by activating edge traps along the fences of the enclosures every night. Except for males early in the summer, movements leading to transfer of individuals between demes were rare relative to mortality and recruitment, and transfer did not act to synchronize the dynamics between demes. Moreover, transferred animals possessed the same survival probability as those staying in their natal deme. Corridors slightly enhanced the rate of transfer in females, but not in males. Excursions into corridors and the matrix area took place much more frequently than transfer and most frequently in the first cohorts early in the season and more in males than in females. Movements in the hostile matrix had a considerable negative effect on survival and, thus on the demography of the populations. Predation by birds is the most likely cause of this movement related mortality which may play an important role in the dynamics of patchy vole populations during the snow-free season. Movements into the corridors did not have any independent effect on survival probability, and habitat corridors may thus act to transfer animals more safely from one patch to another.

The prevalence of Toxoplasma gondii in polar bears and their marine mammal prey: evidence for a marine transmission pathway?

Little is known about the prevalence of the parasite Toxoplasma gondii in the arctic marine food chain of Svalbard, Norway. In this study, plasma samples were analyzed for T. gondii antibodies using a direct agglutination test. Antibody prevalence was 45.6% among polar bears (Ursus maritimus), 18.7% among ringed seals (Pusa hispida) and 66.7% among adult bearded seals (Erignathus barbatus) from Svalbard, but no sign of antibodies were found in bearded seal pups, harbour seals (Phoca vitulina), white whales (Delphinapterus leucas) or narwhals (Monodon monoceros) from the same area. Prevalence was significantly higher in male polar bears (52.3%) compared with females (39.3%), likely due to dietary differences between the sexes. Compared to an earlier study, T. gondii prevalence in polar bears has doubled in the past decade. Consistently, an earlier study on ringed seals did not detect T. gondii. The high recent prevalence in polar bears, ringed seals and bearded seals could be caused by an increase in the number or survivorship of oocysts being transported via the North Atlantic Current to Svalbard from southern latitudes. Warmer water temperatures have led to influxes of temperate marine invertebrate filter-feeders that could be vectors for oocysts and warmer water is also likely to favour higher survivorship of oocycts. However, a more diverse than normal array of migratory birds in the Archipelago recently, as well as a marked increase in cruise-ship and other human traffic are also potential sources of T. gondii.

Bacterial diversity in faeces from polar bear (Ursus maritimus) in Arctic Svalbard

BackgroundPolar bears (Ursus maritimus) are major predators in the Arctic marine ecosystem, feeding mainly on seals, and living closely associated with sea ice. Little is known of their gut microbial ecology and the main purpose of this study was to investigate the microbial diversity in faeces of polar bears in Svalbard, Norway (74-81°N, 10-33°E). In addition the level of blaTEM alleles, encoding ampicillin resistance (ampr) were determined. In total, ten samples were collected from ten individual bears, rectum swabs from five individuals in 2004 and faeces samples from five individuals in 2006.ResultsA 16S rRNA gene clone library was constructed, and all sequences obtained from 161 clones showed affiliation with the phylum Firmicutes, with 160 sequences identified as Clostridiales and one sequence identified as unclassified Firmicutes. The majority of the sequences (70%) were affiliated with the genus Clostridium. Aerobic heterotrophic cell counts on chocolate agar ranged between 5.0 × 104 to 1.6 × 106 colony forming units (cfu)/ml for the rectum swabs and 4.0 × 103 to 1.0 × 105 cfu/g for the faeces samples. The proportion of ampr bacteria ranged from 0% to 44%. All of 144 randomly selected ampr isolates tested positive for enzymatic β-lactamase activity. Three % of the ampr isolates from the rectal samples yielded positive results when screened for the presence of blaTEM genes by PCR. BlaTEM alleles were also detected by PCR in two out of three total faecal DNA samples from polar bears.ConclusionThe bacterial diversity in faeces from polar bears in their natural environment in Svalbard is low compared to other animal species, with all obtained clones affiliating to Firmicutes. Furthermore, only low levels of blaTEM alleles were detected in contrast to their increasing prevalence in some clinical and commensal bacterial populations.