Jon Bielby

PanTHERIA: a species-level database of life history, ecology, and geography of extant and recently extinct mammals

Analyses of life-history, ecological, and geographic trait differences among species, their causes, correlates, and likely consequences are increasingly important for understanding and conserving biodiversity in the face of rapid global change. Assembling multispecies trait data from diverse literature sources into a single comprehensive data set requires detailed consideration of methods to reliably compile data for particular species, and to derive single estimates from multiple sources based on different techniques and definitions. Here we describe PanTHERIA, a species-level data set compiled for analysis of life history, ecology, and geography of all known extant and recently extinct mammals. PanTHERIA is derived from a database capable of holding multiple geo-referenced values for variables within a species containing 100 740 lines of biological data for extant and recently extinct mammalian species, collected over a period of three years by 20 individuals. PanTHERIA also includes spatial databases o...

Multiple emergences of genetically diverse amphibian-infecting chytrids include a globalized hypervirulent recombinant lineage

Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is a globally ubiquitous fungal infection that has emerged to become a primary driver of amphibian biodiversity loss. Despite widespread effort to understand the emergence of this panzootic, the origins of the infection, its patterns of global spread, and principle mode of evolution remain largely unknown. Using comparative population genomics, we discovered three deeply diverged lineages of Bd associated with amphibians. Two of these lineages were found in multiple continents and are associated with known introductions by the amphibian trade. We found that isolates belonging to one clade, the global panzootic lineage (BdGPL) have emerged across at least five continents during the 20th century and are associated with the onset of epizootics in North America, Central America, the Caribbean, Australia, and Europe. The two newly identified divergent lineages, Cape lineage (BdCAPE) and Swiss lineage (BdCH), were found to differ in morphological traits when compared against one another and BdGPL, and we show that BdGPL is hypervirulent. BdGPL uniquely bears the hallmarks of genomic recombination, manifested as extensive intergenomic phylogenetic conflict and patchily distributed heterozygosity. We postulate that contact between previously genetically isolated allopatric populations of Bd may have allowed recombination to occur, resulting in the generation, spread, and invasion of the hypervirulent BdGPL leading to contemporary disease-driven losses in amphibian biodiversity.

The predictability of extinction: biological and external correlates of decline in mammals

Extinction risk varies among species, and comparative analyses can help clarify the causes of this variation. Here we present a phylogenetic comparative analysis of species-level extinction risk across nearly the whole of the class Mammalia. Our aims were to examine systematically the degree to which general predictors of extinction risk can be identified, and to investigate the relative importance of different types of predictors (life history, ecological, human impact and environmental) in determining extinction risk. A single global model explained 27.3% of variation in mammal extinction risk, but explanatory power was lower for region-specific models (median R2=0.248) and usually higher for taxon-specific models (median R2=0.383). Geographical range size, human population density and latitude were the most consistently significant predictors of extinction risk, but otherwise there was little evidence for general, prescriptive indicators of high extinction risk across mammals. Our results therefore support the view that comparative models of relatively narrow taxonomic scope are likely to be the most precise.

The fast-slow continuum in mammalian life history: an empirical reevaluation.

Many life‐history traits co‐vary across species, even when body size differences are controlled for. This phenomenon has led to the concept of a “fast‐slow continuum,” which has been influential in both empirical and theoretical studies of life‐history evolution. We present a comparative analysis of mammalian life histories showing that, for mammals at least, there is not a single fast‐slow continuum. Rather, both across and within mammalian clades, the speed of life varies along at least two largely independent axes when body size effects are removed. One axis reflects how species balance offspring size against offspring number, while the other describes the timing of reproductive bouts.

Mapping the Global Emergence of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, the Amphibian Chytrid Fungus

The rapid worldwide emergence of the amphibian pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is having a profound negative impact on biodiversity. However, global research efforts are fragmented and an overarching synthesis of global infection data is lacking. Here, we provide results from a community tool for the compilation of worldwide Bd presence and report on the analyses of data collated over a four-year period. Using this online database, we analysed: 1) spatial and taxonomic patterns of infection, including amphibian families that appear over- and under-infected; 2) relationships between Bd occurrence and declining amphibian species, including associations among Bd occurrence, species richness, and enigmatic population declines; and 3) patterns of environmental correlates with Bd, including climate metrics for all species combined and three families (Hylidae, Bufonidae, Ranidae) separately, at both a global scale and regional (U.S.A.) scale. These associations provide new insights for downscaled hypothesis testing. The pathogen has been detected in 52 of 82 countries in which sampling was reported, and it has been detected in 516 of 1240 (42%) amphibian species. We show that detected Bd infections are related to amphibian biodiversity and locations experiencing rapid enigmatic declines, supporting the hypothesis that greater complexity of amphibian communities increases the likelihood of emergence of infection and transmission of Bd. Using a global model including all sampled species, the odds of Bd detection decreased with increasing temperature range at a site. Further consideration of temperature range, rather than maximum or minimum temperatures, may provide new insights into Bd-host ecology. Whereas caution is necessary when interpreting such a broad global dataset, the use of our pathogen database is helping to inform studies of the epidemiology of Bd, as well as enabling regional, national, and international prioritization of conservation efforts. We provide recommendations for adaptive management to enhance the database utility and relevance.

Modelling extinction risk in multispecies data sets: phylogenetically independent contrasts versus decision trees.

Many recent studies of extinction risk have attempted to determine what differences exist between threatened and non-threatened species. One potential problem in such studies is that species-level data may contain phylogenetic non-independence. However, the use of phylogenetic comparative methods (PCM) to account for non-independence remains controversial, and some recent studies of extinction have recommended other methods that do not account for phylogenetic non-independence, notably decision trees (DTs). Here we perform a systematic comparison of techniques, comparing the performance of PCM regression models with corresponding non-phylogenetic regressions and DTs over different clades and response variables. We found that predictions were broadly consistent among techniques, but that predictive precision varied across techniques with PCM regression and DTs performing best. Additionally, despite their inability to account for phylogenetic non-independence, DTs were useful in highlighting interaction terms for inclusion in the PCM regression models. We discuss the implications of these findings for future comparative studies of extinction risk.

The link between rapid enigmatic amphibian decline and the globally emerging chytrid fungus.

Amphibians are globally declining and approximately one-third of all species are threatened with extinction. Some of the most severe declines have occurred suddenly and for unknown reasons in apparently pristine habitats. It has been hypothesized that these “rapid enigmatic declines” are the result of a panzootic of the disease chytridiomycosis caused by globally emerging amphibian chytrid fungus. In a Species Distribution Model, we identified the potential distribution of this pathogen. Areas and species from which rapid enigmatic decline are known significantly overlap with those of highest environmental suitability to the chytrid fungus. We confirm the plausibility of a link between rapid enigmatic decline in worldwide amphibian species and epizootic chytridiomycosis.

Assessing Risk and Guidance on Monitoring of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in Europe through Identification of Taxonomic Selectivity of Infection

Amphibians are globally threatened, but not all species are affected equally by different threatening processes. This is true for the threat posed by the chytridiomycete fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis). We compiled a European data set for B. dendrobatidis to analyze the trends of infection in European amphibians. The risk of infection was not randomly distributed geographically or taxonomically across Europe. Within countries with different prevalence, infection was nonrandom in certain amphibian taxa. Brown frogs of the genus Rana were unlikely to be infected, whereas frogs in the families Alytidae and Bombinatoridae were significantly more likely to be infected than predicted by chance. Frogs in the 2 families susceptible to B. dendrobatidis should form the core of attempts to develop spatial surveillance studies of chytridiomycosis in Europe. Ideally, surveys for B. dendrobatidis should be augmented by sampling the widespread genus Pelophylax because this taxon exhibits geographically inconsistent overinfection with B. dendrobatidis and surveillance of it may facilitate recognition of factors causing spatial variability of infection intensity. Several European amphibian taxa were not represented in our data set; however, surveillance of unsampled species should also occur when warranted.

Fatal chytridiomycosis in the tyrrhenian painted frog.

Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), the causative agent of the amphibian disease chytridiomycosis, is an important factor in the global decline of amphibians. Within Europe, animals that exhibit clinical signs of the disease have only been reported in Spain despite the pathogen’s wide, but patchy, distribution on the continent. Recently, another occurrence of chytridiomycosis was reported in Euproctus platycephalus, the Sardinian brook newt, on the Mediterranean island of Sardinia, but without any evidence of fatal disease. We report further evidence of the emergence of Bd on Sardinia and the first evidence of lethal chytridiomycosis outside of Spain. Unusual mortalities of the Tyrrhenian painted frog (Discoglossus sardus) were found at three sites in the Limbara mountains of northern Sardinia. Molecular and histological screens of corpses, frogs, and tadpoles from these sites revealed infection with Bd. Infection and mortality occurred at locations that are unusual in terms of the published habitat requirements of the pathogen. Given the endemicity, the IUCN Red List status of the amphibian species on Sardinia, and the occurrence of infection and mortality caused by chytridiomycosis, there is serious reason for concern for the impact that disease emergence may have on the conservation of the amphibians of the island.

Cost‐effective assessment of extinction risk with limited information

1. Cost-effective reduction of uncertainty in global biodiversity indicators is a central goal of conservation. Comprising a sixth of the 74,000+ species currently on the IUCN Red List, Data Deficient species contribute to considerable uncertainty in estimates of extinction risk. Estimating levels of risk in Data Deficient species will require large resources given the costs of surveys and Red List assessments. Predicting extinction risk from species traits and geographical information could provide a cheaper approach for determining the proportion of Data Deficient species at risk of extinction. 2. We use double sampling theory to compare the cost-effectiveness of predictive models and IUCN Red List assessments for estimating risk levels in Data Deficient terrestrial mammals, amphibians, reptiles and crayfish. For each group, we calibrate Machine Learning models of extinction risk on species of known conservation status, and assess their cost and reliability relative to field surveys followed by Red List assessments. 3. We show that regardless of model type used or species group examined, it is always more cost-effective to determine the conservation status of all species with models and assess a small proportion of species with IUCN criteria (double sampling), rather than spend the same resources on field surveys and Red List assessments alone (single sampling). 4. We estimate that surveying and re-assessing all Data Deficient species currently listed on the IUCN Red List (12,206 species) with IUCN criteria would cost a minimum of US