Jonathan A. Hare

Forecasting the dynamics of a coastal fishery species using a coupled climate?population model

Marine fisheries management strives to maintain sustainable populations while allowing exploitation. However, well-intentioned management plans may not meet this balance as most do not include the effect of climate change. Ocean temperatures are expected to increase through the 21st century, which will have far-reaching and complex impacts on marine fisheries. To begin to quantify these impacts for one coastal fishery along the east coast of the United States, we develop a coupled climate-population model for Atlantic croaker (Micropogonias undulatus). The model is based on a mechanistic hypothesis: recruitment is determined by temperature-driven, overwinter mortality of juveniles in their estuarine habitats. Temperature forecasts were obtained from 14 general circulation models simulating three CO2 emission scenarios. An ensemble-based approach was used in which a multimodel average was calculated for a given CO2 emission scenario to forecast the response of the population. The coupled model indicates that both exploitation and climate change significantly affect abundance and distribution of Atlantic croaker. At current levels of fishing, the average (2010-2100) spawning biomass of the population is forecast to increase by 60-100%. Similarly, the center of the population is forecast to shift 50 100 km northward. A yield analysis, which is used to calculate benchmarks for fishery management, indicates that the maximum sustainable yield will increase by 30 100%. Our results demonstrate that climate effects on fisheries must be identified, understood, and incorporated into the scientific advice provided to managers if sustainable exploitation is to be achieved in a changing climate.

Abundance estimates of the Indo-Pacific lionfish Pterois volitans/miles complex in the Western North Atlantic

Less than a decade after being observed off Florida, the invasive Indo-Pacific lionfish is now widely distributed off the southeast coast of the United States. As a step towards measuring invasion impacts to native communities, we examine the magnitude and extent of this invasion by first, compiling reports of lionfish to provide range information and second, estimate lionfish abundance from two separate studies. We also estimate native grouper (epinepheline serranids) abundance to better assess and compare lionfish abundances. In the first study we conducted SCUBA diver visual transect surveys at 17 different locations off the North Carolina coast in water depths of 35–50 m. In the second study, we conducted 27 Remote Operated Vehicle (ROV) transect surveys at five locations from Florida to North Carolina in water depths of 50–100 m. In both studies, lionfish were found to be second in abundance only to scamp (Mycteroperca phenax). Lionfish were found in higher abundance in the shallower North Carolina SCUBA surveys (\(\bar{x}= 21.2\) ha−1) than in the deep water ROV surveys (\(\bar{x} = 5.2\) ha−1). Lionfish reports continue to expand most recently into the Bahamas, raising the specter of further spread into the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. The potential impacts of lionfish to native communities are likely to be through direct predation, competition and overcrowding. The high number of lionfish present in the ecosystem increases the potential for cascading impacts throughout the food chain. Within the southeast region the combined effects of climate change, overfishing and invasive species may have irreversible consequences to native communities in this region.

The role of life history parameters as indicators of stock structure

Vital population parameters, such as growth, survival, recruitment, reproduction, distribution, and abundance, are the consequences of life history modes to which fish stocks have evolved. Differences in these parameters have long been used to identify separate management stocks assuming that phenotypic variation is due to genotypic and environmental controls. However, few studies have examined the temporal stability of life history parameters, nor the mechanisms by which differences in these parameters between stocks are maintained. We examine the temporal and spatial stability of several life history parameters of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus), and yellowtail flounder (Limanda ferruginea) in the northwest Atlantic Ocean to assess their utility for stock identification. Although significant temporal differences in vital rates were found within stocks, differences were generally maintained between stocks. Both genetic (biological) and oceanographic (physical) conditions play an integral role in maintaining stock structure. Although, the utility of vital life history parameters for stock identification may decrease with stock complexity and exploitation history, their applicability increases with the number of parameters examined.

Enhanced warming of the Northwest Atlantic Ocean under climate change

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment of projected global and regional ocean temperature change is based on global climate models that have coarse (∼100 km) ocean and atmosphere resolutions. In the Northwest Atlantic, the ensemble of global climate models has a warm bias in sea surface temperature due to a misrepresentation of the Gulf Stream position; thus, existing climate change projections are based on unrealistic regional ocean circulation. Here we compare simulations and an atmospheric CO2 doubling response from four global climate models of varying ocean and atmosphere resolution. We find that the highest resolution climate model (∼10 km ocean, ∼50 km atmosphere) resolves Northwest Atlantic circulation and water mass distribution most accurately. The CO2 doubling response from this model shows that upper-ocean (0–300 m) temperature in the Northwest Atlantic Shelf warms at a rate nearly twice as fast as the coarser models and nearly three times faster than the global average. This enhanced warming is accompanied by an increase in salinity due to a change in water mass distribution that is related to a retreat of the Labrador Current and a northerly shift of the Gulf Stream. Both observations and the climate model demonstrate a robust relationship between a weakening Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and an increase in the proportion of Warm-Temperate Slope Water entering the Northwest Atlantic Shelf. Therefore, prior climate change projections for the Northwest Atlantic may be far too conservative. These results point to the need to improve simulations of basin and regional-scale ocean circulation.

A Vulnerability Assessment of Fish and Invertebrates to Climate Change on the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf.

Climate change and decadal variability are impacting marine fish and invertebrate species worldwide and these impacts will continue for the foreseeable future. Quantitative approaches have been developed to examine climate impacts on productivity, abundance, and distribution of various marine fish and invertebrate species. However, it is difficult to apply these approaches to large numbers of species owing to the lack of mechanistic understanding sufficient for quantitative analyses, as well as the lack of scientific infrastructure to support these more detailed studies. Vulnerability assessments provide a framework for evaluating climate impacts over a broad range of species with existing information. These methods combine the exposure of a species to a stressor (climate change and decadal variability) and the sensitivity of species to the stressor. These two components are then combined to estimate an overall vulnerability. Quantitative data are used when available, but qualitative information and expert opinion are used when quantitative data is lacking. Here we conduct a climate vulnerability assessment on 82 fish and invertebrate species in the Northeast U.S. Shelf including exploited, forage, and protected species. We define climate vulnerability as the extent to which abundance or productivity of a species in the region could be impacted by climate change and decadal variability. We find that the overall climate vulnerability is high to very high for approximately half the species assessed; diadromous and benthic invertebrate species exhibit the greatest vulnerability. In addition, the majority of species included in the assessment have a high potential for a change in distribution in response to projected changes in climate. Negative effects of climate change are expected for approximately half of the species assessed, but some species are expected to be positively affected (e.g., increase in productivity or move into the region). These results will inform research and management activities related to understanding and adapting marine fisheries management and conservation to climate change and decadal variability.

CHAPTER 11 – Otolith Applications in Reef Fish Ecology

This chapter reviews the development and application of otolith methodologies in reef fish ecology over the past 10 years. Otoliths are calcareous accretions found within paired otolithic organs, such as sacule, lagena, and utricle that together with the semicircular canals, make up the inner ear of teleost fishes. All three otolithic organs are believed to be responsive to sound and vestibular movement of the head, whereas the semicircular canals detect angular acceleration. Sagittal and lapillal otoliths located within the sacule and utricle, respectively, are normally composed of calcium carbonate in the form of aragonite and asterisci, located within the lagena, appear to be predominantly vaterite. The otoliths of coral reef fishes contain identifiable annuli, and the annulus formation has an annual periodicity in a number of species. The chemistry of otoliths is determined, in large part, by thermodynamic properties of CaCO 3 crystal formation. Differences in the lattice structure of each of the three CaCO 3 polymorphs influence incorporation of trace elements and stable isotopes in otoliths. Otolith microstructure holds a lot of information on daily age, size, growth, and ontogeny that has a broad application to the study of coral reef fish ecology. Most studies of coral reef fishes have used either sagittae or lapilli. Sagittae have primarily been used for gobiids, labrids, and monocanthids while lapilli have been primarily used for chaetodontids, holocentrids, pomacentrids, scarids, and serranids.

Does the fall phytoplankton bloom control recruitment of Georges Bank haddock, Melanogrammus aeglefinus, through parental condition?

In 2003, the Georges Bank stock of haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) experienced the largest recruitment event recorded during its assessed history. Several hypotheses have been advanced to explain recruitment variability in this much-scrutinized stock, including variability in the retention of eggs and larvae on Georges Bank, the timing of haddock spawning, and variability in the spring bloom, which influences larval growth and survival. Although these processes may contribute to the formation of successful year classes, none of the factors associated with these previous hypotheses provides an adequate explanation of the 2003 recruitment event. We analyzed data on the dynamics of the fall phytoplankton bloom the year prior to spawning and show it to be highly correlated with subsequent recruitment. We suggest that the fall bloom affects recruitment through enhanced condition of adults and by increasing the quantity and quality of their reproductive output, which in turn leads to a higher probability of ...

Estimating the Energy Density of Fish: The Importance of Ontogeny

Abstract Ontogenetic patterns in the percent dry weight (%DW) and energy density (joules per gram of wet weight) were studied in the early life stages of the subtropical estuarine and marine gray snapper Lutjanus griseus and the warm-temperate estuarine and marine spotted seatrout Cynoscion nebulosus. The %DW was variable for individuals of both species but increased significantly through larval to juvenile stages ( 50 mm). The lipid percentage, which was determined only for gray snapper, was also variable between individuals but showed significant increase with body size. Strong relationships between percent dry weight and energy density were evident for both species; however, the slopes of regressions were significantly lower than in general multispecies models, demonstrating the need for species- and stage-specific energy density data in bioenergetics models.

Role of egg predation by haddock in the decline of an Atlantic herring population

Theoretical studies suggest that the abrupt and substantial changes in the productivity of some fisheries species may be explained by predation-driven alternate stable states in their population levels. With this hypothesis, an increase in fishing or a natural perturbation can drive a population from an upper to a lower stable-equilibrium population level. After fishing is reduced or the perturbation ended, this low population level can persist due to the regulatory effect of the predator. Although established in theoretical studies, there is limited empirical support for predation-driven alternate stable states in exploited marine fish populations. We present evidence that egg predation by haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) can cause alternate stable population levels in Georges Bank Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus). Egg predation by haddock explains a substantial decoupling of herring spawning stock biomass (an index of egg production) from observed larval herring abundance (an index of egg hatching). Estimated egg survival rates ranged from <2–70% from 1971 to 2005. A population model incorporating egg predation and herring fishing explains the major population trends of Georges Bank herring over four decades and predicts that, when the haddock population is high, seemingly conservative levels of fishing can still precipitate a severe decline in the herring population. These findings illustrate how efforts to rebuild fisheries can be undermined by not incorporating ecological interactions into fisheries models and management plans.

Abundance and size of larval fishes outside the entrance to Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina

Synoptic ichthyoplankton sampling was conducted on two transects, one on either side of Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina, during the winter immigration season of seven ocean-spawned, estuarine-dependent fishes;Brevoortia tyrannus (Atlantic menhaden),Leiostomus xanthurus (spot),Micropogonias undulatus (Atlantic croaker),Lagodon rhomboides (pinfish),Paralichthys albigutta (Gulf flounder),P. dentatus (summer flounder), andP. lethostigma (southern flounder). Densities and lengths of larvae were significantly different among sampling dates, with distance offshore, and between sides of the inlet. Flood-tide stage had minimal effect on larval densities and lengths except forP. albigutta andP. lethostigma. Changes in larval densities with distance offshore were not coherent among species; densities ofB. tyrammus increased offshore whereas densities of the other species decreased offshore. Average larval densities on a sampling date were coherent among species. Patterns in larval lengths were also coherent among the four non-flounder species. Larval densities outside of Beaufort Inlet were correlated with larval densities inside of Beaufort Inlet. Larval densities outside of Beaufort Inlet were also correlated with the north component of the wind, nearshore water temperature, and distance to the mid-shelf front. Differences in larval density across the inlet were significantly correlated with the east component of the wind. The patterns in larval densities outside of Beaufort Inlet were complex and apparently influenced by both the physical processes that supply larvae to the nearshore region and nearshore physical dynamics.