Katrin E. Marancik

A Vulnerability Assessment of Fish and Invertebrates to Climate Change on the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf.

Climate change and decadal variability are impacting marine fish and invertebrate species worldwide and these impacts will continue for the foreseeable future. Quantitative approaches have been developed to examine climate impacts on productivity, abundance, and distribution of various marine fish and invertebrate species. However, it is difficult to apply these approaches to large numbers of species owing to the lack of mechanistic understanding sufficient for quantitative analyses, as well as the lack of scientific infrastructure to support these more detailed studies. Vulnerability assessments provide a framework for evaluating climate impacts over a broad range of species with existing information. These methods combine the exposure of a species to a stressor (climate change and decadal variability) and the sensitivity of species to the stressor. These two components are then combined to estimate an overall vulnerability. Quantitative data are used when available, but qualitative information and expert opinion are used when quantitative data is lacking. Here we conduct a climate vulnerability assessment on 82 fish and invertebrate species in the Northeast U.S. Shelf including exploited, forage, and protected species. We define climate vulnerability as the extent to which abundance or productivity of a species in the region could be impacted by climate change and decadal variability. We find that the overall climate vulnerability is high to very high for approximately half the species assessed; diadromous and benthic invertebrate species exhibit the greatest vulnerability. In addition, the majority of species included in the assessment have a high potential for a change in distribution in response to projected changes in climate. Negative effects of climate change are expected for approximately half of the species assessed, but some species are expected to be positively affected (e.g., increase in productivity or move into the region). These results will inform research and management activities related to understanding and adapting marine fisheries management and conservation to climate change and decadal variability.

Long-Term Changes in the Distributions of Larval and Adult Fish in the Northeast U.S. Shelf Ecosystem

Many studies have documented long-term changes in adult marine fish distributions and linked these changes to climate change and multi-decadal climate variability. Most marine fish, however, have complex life histories with morphologically distinct stages, which use different habitats. Shifts in distribution of one stage may affect the connectivity between life stages and thereby impact population processes including spawning and recruitment. Specifically, many marine fish species have a planktonic larval stage, which lasts from weeks to months. We compared the spatial distribution and seasonal occurrence of larval fish in the Northeast U.S. Shelf Ecosystem to test whether spatial and temporal distributions changed between two decades. Two large-scale ichthyoplankton programs sampled using similar methods and spatial domain each decade. Adult distributions from a long-term bottom trawl survey over the same time period and spatial area were also analyzed using the same analytical framework to compare changes in larval and adult distributions between the two decades. Changes in spatial distribution of larvae occurred for 43% of taxa, with shifts predominately northward (i.e., along-shelf). Timing of larval occurrence shifted for 49% of the larval taxa, with shifts evenly split between occurring earlier and later in the season. Where both larvae and adults of the same species were analyzed, 48% exhibited different shifts between larval and adult stages. Overall, these results demonstrate that larval fish distributions are changing in the ecosystem. The spatial changes are largely consistent with expectations from a changing climate. The temporal changes are more complex, indicating we need a better understanding of reproductive timing of fishes in the ecosystem. These changes may impact population productivity through changes in life history connectivity and recruitment, and add to the accumulating evidence for changes in the Northeast U.S. Shelf Ecosystem with potential to impact fisheries and other ecosystem services.

Discovery of a spawning ground reveals diverse migration strategies in Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus)

Significance We present unequivocal evidence that Atlantic bluefin tuna spawn in the Slope Sea, counter to the current assumption that the Gulf of Mexico and Mediterranean Sea are the exclusive spawning grounds. We also demonstrate that age at maturity of western bluefin tuna is currently overestimated, that this stock exhibits size-structured spawning migrations, and that migratory connections exist between western and eastern Atlantic spawning grounds. Atlantic bluefin tuna support a highly contentious international fishery, and our results present an alternate life history model to inform the management of this species. The implications of our work are most pronounced for western Atlantic bluefin tuna, which have a life history less vulnerable to overexploitation and extinction than is currently estimated. Atlantic bluefin tuna are a symbol of both the conflict between preservationist and utilitarian views of top ocean predators, and the struggle to reach international consensus on the management of migratory species. Currently, Atlantic bluefin tuna are managed as an early-maturing eastern stock, which spawns in the Mediterranean Sea, and a late-maturing western stock, which spawns in the Gulf of Mexico. However, electronic tagging studies show that many bluefin tuna, assumed to be of a mature size, do not visit either spawning ground during the spawning season. Whether these fish are spawning in an alternate location, skip-spawning, or not spawning until an older age affects how vulnerable this species is to anthropogenic stressors including exploitation. We use larval collections to demonstrate a bluefin tuna spawning ground in the Slope Sea, between the Gulf Stream and northeast United States continental shelf. We contend that western Atlantic bluefin tuna have a differential spawning migration, with larger individuals spawning in the Gulf of Mexico, and smaller individuals spawning in the Slope Sea. The current life history model, which assumes only Gulf of Mexico spawning, overestimates age at maturity for the western stock. Furthermore, individual tuna occupy both the Slope Sea and Mediterranean Sea in separate years, contrary to the prevailing view that individuals exhibit complete spawning-site fidelity. Overall, this complexity of spawning migrations questions whether there is complete independence in the dynamics of eastern and western Atlantic bluefin tuna and leads to lower estimates of the vulnerability of this species to exploitation and other anthropogenic stressors.

Reply to Safina and Walter et al.: Multiple lines of evidence for size-structured spawning migrations in western Atlantic bluefin tuna

Walter et al. (1) and Safina (2) raise numerous concerns regarding our study (3). Specifically, they question our conclusions that (i) a majority of spawning occurs outside the Gulf of Mexico, (ii) western North Atlantic bluefin tuna mature earlier than currently estimated, and (iii) additional spawning locations and younger age at maturity mean that the western Atlantic bluefin tuna are less vulnerable to anthropogenic impacts, including exploitation.