Jonathan Chenoweth

Climate change and impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East.

The Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME) are likely to be greatly affected by climate change, associated with increases in the frequency and intensity of droughts and hot weather conditions. Since the region is diverse and extreme climate conditions already common, the impacts will be disproportional. We have analyzed long-term meteorological datasets along with regional climate model projections for the 21st century, based on the intermediate IPCC SRES scenario A1B. This suggests a continual, gradual and relatively strong warming of about 3.5–7°C between the 1961–1990 reference period and the period 2070–2099. Daytime maximum temperatures appear to increase most rapidly in the northern part of the region, i.e. the Balkan Peninsula and Turkey. Hot summer conditions that rarely occurred in the reference period may become the norm by the middle and the end of the 21st century. Projected precipitation changes are quite variable. Annual precipitation is expected to decrease in the southern Europe – Turkey region and the Levant, whereas in the Arabian Gulf area it may increase. In the former region rainfall is actually expected to increase in winter, while decreasing in spring and summer, with a substantial increase of the number of days without rainfall. Anticipated regional impacts of climate change include heat stress, associated with poor air quality in the urban environment, and increasing scarcity of fresh water in the Levant.

Estimating the direct and indirect water use of tourism in the eastern Mediterranean.

The impact of tourism activities on local water resources remains a largely understudied issue in environmental and sustainable tourism management. The aim of the paper is to present a simple methodology that allows an estimate of direct and indirect local water use associated with different holiday packages and to then discuss relevant management implications. This is explored through the creation of five illustrative examples of holidays to semi-arid eastern Mediterranean destinations: Cyprus (2), Turkey, Greece and Syria. Using available data on water use associated with different forms of travel, accommodation and tourist activities, indicative water footprints are calculated for each of the illustrative examples. Food consumption by tourists appears to have by far the most significant impact on the overall water footprint and this aspect of water use is explored in detail in the paper. The paper also suggests a way of employing the water footprint methodology along with import/export balance sheets of main food commodities to distinguish between the global and local pressure of tourism demand on water resources. Water resource use is likely to become an increasingly important issue in tourism management and must be considered alongside more established environmental concerns such as energy use, using methodologies that can capture direct as well as supply chain impacts.

Integrated River Basin Management in the Multi-jurisdictional River Basins: The Case of the Mekong River Basin

Achieving integrated river basin management in large multi-jurisdictional river basins is a difficult task. In the Mekong River basin some of the countries have begun to implement a cooperative framework, which indicates a desire to achieve a form of integrated management. Significant progress has been made but results still fall short of the ideal. The primary reasons for this includes the lack of institutional capacity of the multi-jurisdictional cooperative authority and its counterpart organizations in each of the participating countries, together with a lack of political drive to develop integrated management as a priority.

Evaluating the Sustainability of Brownfield Redevelopment Projects The Redevelopment Assessment Framework (RAF)

Redevelopment of brownfield land is regarded as an essential component of the achievement of sustainable urban regeneration, and is thus enshrined in a number of key urban policy frameworks (DETR 2000; ODPM 2004a). Brownfield redevelopment is considered to be de facto sustainable and presented as a headline sustainability indicator (DETR 1999). However, many examples exist where redevelopment of brownfield sites has not been sustainable, as it failed to assess the environmental, social, economic and physical impacts holistically, as well as to consider the long-term impacts of brownfield redevelopment projects (BRPs) in general. It is therefore important to develop and implement a Redevelopment Assessment Framework (RAF), that addresses sustainability throughout a site’s life cycle of land use. Such a framework has been developed, and is discussed here. The RAF utilises sustainability indicators, while taking into account relevant existing UK planning evaluation processes and other sources of information, thus making it applicable in practice. The RAF embodies a participatory approach which offers greater communication and understanding between relevant stakeholders, and therefore also offers educational and communications benefits. A description of the RAF, a critical analysis of its intended use, and a discussion of benefits and potential barriers, are provided below.

Analysis of Factors Influencing Data and Information Exchange in International River Basins: Can Such Exchanges be used to Build Confidence in Cooperative Management?

Abstract The exchange of data and information relating to transboundary water resources is widely accepted as being an appropriate starting point for more comprehensive cooperation. This paper examines under what conditions data and information exchange occur in relation to shared water resources, and hence examines when it can be used as a confidence building measure. An overview of several major international river basins together with more detailed case studies of the Mekong. Rio Grande, and Rhine River basins suggest that factors that promote data and information exchange include the presence of compatible needs, absence of legacies of mistrust, increasing water resources stress, perceptions that cooperation is of mutual benefit, external pressure and funding, comparable levels of institutional capacity, popular and political concern about water resources management, and functional formal or informal cooperative arrangements. Analysis of the situation prevailing between Israel and the Palestinians with regard to shared water resources suggests that data and information exchange does not seem likely in the short term, even though other forms of cooperation have been established with mixed results. This suggests that in some situations, at least, data and information exchange relating to shared water resources may not be useful as a first step in establishing more comprehensive cooperation.

Challenges to achieving sustainable sanitation in informal settlements of Kigali, Rwanda.

Like most cities in developing countries, Kigali is experiencing rapid urbanisation leading to an increase in the urban population and rapid growth in the size and number of informal settlements. More than 60% of the city’s population resides in these settlements, where they experience inadequate and poor quality urban services including sanitation. This article discusses the issues and constraints related to the provision of sustainable sanitation in the informal settlements in Kigali. Two informal settlements (Gatsata and Kimisagara) were selected for the study, which used a mixed method approach for data collection. The research found that residents experienced multiple problems because of poor sanitation and that the main barrier to improved sanitation was cost. Findings from this study can be used by the city authorities in the planning of effective sanitation intervention strategies for communities in informal settlements.

A re-assessment of indicators of national water scarcity

The indicator of naturally available water resources per capita has become the standard index for measuring the degree to which a country is facing water scarcity and is often used to show a growing global water crisis. By simultaneously analysing the national development related data provided by the UNDP, and the water resources related data provided by the FAO, it is possible to test the validity of this index, its definitions of water scarcity, and the correlation of water scarcity with national development. This analysis suggests that the naturally available water resources of a country do not have a significant effect on the ability of that country to meet the basic needs of its population.

Is tourism with a low impact on climate possible

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of a range of different travel and tourism options, and quantifies the carbon‐dioxide emissions resulting from international vacations, breaking down emissions categories into those resulting from transport, accommodation and recreation.Design/methodology/approach – The paper uses summary data to review a range of possible vacation scenarios and examines their relative carbon‐dioxide emissions in order to compare the relative climatic impact of different forms of tourism and vacation options.Findings – The paper concludes that intercontinental flights and cruise ship travel are particularly carbon‐intensive, which suggests that these two forms of tourism will be particularly vulnerable to any policy initiative to curb or price carbon emissions. Ends by considering whether climatically responsible international tourism is possible, and outlines some low‐carbon options.Originality/value – The paper relates data on carbon emissions to the implicati...

Assessing demand for improved sustainable sanitation in low-income informal settlements of urban areas: a critical review

Sanitation improvement is crucial in saving lives that are lost due to water contamination. Progress towards achieving full sanitation coverage is still slow in low-income informal settlements in most developing countries. Furthermore, resources are being wasted on installing facilities that are later misused or never used because they do not meet the local demand. Understanding demand for improved sanitation in the local context is critical if facilities are to be continually used. Various approaches that attempt to change peoples’ behaviours or create demand have been reviewed to identify what they are designed to address. A multi-disciplinary research team using mixed methods is re-emphasised as a comprehensive approach for assessing demand for improved sanitation in low-income informal settlements, where the sanitation situation is more challenging than in other areas. Further research involving a multi-disciplinary research team and use of mixed methods to assess sanitation demand in informal settlements is needed.

Rethinking the Economic Contribution of Tourism: Case Study from a Mediterranean Island

The article introduces an integrated market-segmentation and tourism yield estimation framework for inbound tourism. Conventional approaches to yield estimation based on country of origin segmentation and total expenditure comparisons do not provide sufficient detail, especially for mature destinations dominated by large single-country source markets. By employing different segmentation approaches along with Tourism Satellite Accounts and various yield estimates, this article estimates direct economic contribution for subsegments of the UK market on the Mediterranean island of Cyprus. Overall expenditure across segments varies greatly, as do the spending ratios in different categories. In the case of Cyprus, the most potential for improving economic contribution currently lies in increasing spending on “food and beverages” and “culture and recreation.” Mass tourism therefore appears to offer the best return per monetary unit spent. Conducting similar studies in other destinations could identify priority spending sectors and enable different segments to be targeted appropriately.