Jonathan Cowden

Monoamine oxidase A gene (MAOA) predicts behavioral aggression following provocation

Monoamine oxidase A gene (MAOA) has earned the nickname “warrior gene” because it has been linked to aggression in observational and survey-based studies. However, no controlled experimental studies have tested whether the warrior gene actually drives behavioral manifestations of these tendencies. We report an experiment, synthesizing work in psychology and behavioral economics, which demonstrates that aggression occurs with greater intensity and frequency as provocation is experimentally manipulated upwards, especially among low activity MAOA (MAOA-L) subjects. In this study, subjects paid to punish those they believed had taken money from them by administering varying amounts of unpleasantly hot (spicy) sauce to their opponent. There is some evidence of a main effect for genotype and some evidence for a gene by environment interaction, such that MAOA is less associated with the occurrence of aggression in a low provocation condition, but significantly predicts such behavior in a high provocation situation. This new evidence for genetic influences on aggression and punishment behavior complicates characterizations of humans as “altruistic” punishers and supports theories of cooperation that propose mixed strategies in the population. It also suggests important implications for the role of individual variance in genetic factors contributing to everyday behaviors and decisions.

Overconfidence in wargames: experimental evidence on expectations, aggression, gender and testosterone

Summary Overconfidence has long been noted by historians and political scientists as a major cause of war. However, the origins of such overconfidence, and sources of variation, remain poorly understood. Mounting empirical studies now show that mentally healthy people tend to exhibit psychological biases that encourage optimism, collectively known as ‘positive illusions’. Positive illusions are thought to have been adaptive in our evolutionary past because they served to cope with adversity, harden resolve, or bluff opponents. Today, however, positive illusions may contribute to costly conflicts and wars. Testosterone has been proposed as a proximate mediator of positive illusions, given its role in promoting dominance and challenge behaviour, particularly in men. To date, no studies have attempted to link overconfidence, decisions about war, gender, and testosterone. Here we report that, in experimental wargames: (i) people are overconfident about their expectations of success; (ii) those who are more overconfident are more likely to attack; (iii) overconfidence and attacks are more pronounced among males than females; and (iv) testosterone is related to expectations of success, but not within gender, so its influence on overconfidence cannot be distinguished from any other gender specific factor. Overall, these results constitute the first empirical support of recent theoretical work linking overconfidence and war.

The Dynamics of Campaign Fundraising in House Elections

Examination of disaggregated Federal Election Commission fundraising data for 1985-1986 House candidates illustrates the tremendous financial advantage incumbents enjoy over challengers. Incumbents raise more money than challengers in every single period of the election cycle, particularly in the decisive time just before the election. Incumbents are also able to react quickly to well-financed opposition. Challengers, on the other hand, must raise money early to experience fundraising success later on, and they are unable to respond to incumbent fundraising by raising more money themselves. Our intraelection analysis, in sum, confirms many of the inferences other researchers have drawn from cross-sectional data.

SHORT-TERM FORCES AND PARTISANSHIP

One of the most intriguing aspects of the debate regarding the persistence of party identification is that proponents of different schools of thought have each managed to use the same quasi-experimental data and similar state of the art techniques to defend their point of view. In this article we argue that this debate cannot be resolved with quasi-experimental data alone and propose another method that we believe can help us triangulate in on the correct answer: experimentation. Two experiments are performed and analyzed. The first tests the hypothesis that party identification is updated in response to the vote choice; the second tests the hypothesis that candidate evaluations influence party choices. The results of our experiments provide some additional support for the traditional conception of partisanship as the unmoved mover of American politics.

Testosterone and Aggression in a Simulated Crisis Game

This study investigated the impact of testosterone on aggression in a crisis simulation game. We found a significant positive relationship between levels of testosterone and aggression. Men were much more likely to engage in aggressive action than women. They were more likely to lose their fights as well. Since testosterone was around five times higher among men, and men engage in such fights more than women, there is an automatic statistical link between testosterone and aggression that is hard to separate from other possible gender-based causes.

The effects of uncertainty and sex in a crisis simulation game

We conducted an experimental test of spiraling behavior, sex differences, and uncertainty in a simulated crisis situation. We investigated the relationship between weapons acquisition and the likelihood of engaging in aggressive behavior, such as going to war. The sample included 100 male and female subjects who participated in a crisis simulation in same‐sex dyads; each student was instructed to role play the leader of a country in conflict with another leader over a nearby island replete with newly discovered oil resources. Participants were randomly assigned to stimulus materials that manipulated the certainty of the information they received about their partners force structure. In four cycles of decision‐making, each participant made procurement decisions, took an action related to the conflict, including decisions about going to war, completed questionnaires on characteristics such as the hostility and trustworthiness of themselves and their opponents, and wrote messages to the other member of the pair. The results of the study demonstrate a strong relationship between weapons acquisition and hostility. In addition, we found large and robust sex differences, showing that men are much more likely than women to acquire weapons and engage in aggressive behavior at every stage. There was no effect of uncertainty on either arms procurement or aggression.

Southernization of the Nation and Nationalization of the South: Racial Conservatism, Social Welfare and White Partisans in the United States, 1956–92

Many scholars and pundits believe that the 1964 presidential election between Barry Goldwater and Lyndon Johnson disrupted the New Deal order and ushered in a sixth party system anchored in part by race issues. But, curiously, the conventional wisdom has not fared well empirically. In this article, I employ disaggregated survey data and novel methodological tools to identify temporal patterns in the relationships between partisanship, New Deal issues and race issues. My conclusions are as follows: (1) the association between race issues and partisanship has switched signs in the South; (2) a racial axis of cleavage has opened up outside the South; (3) the New Deal issue axis has grown in the South; and (4) New Deal issues continue to cleave partisans outside the South.

The convergence of American elites’ domestic beliefs with their foreign policy beliefs

Contemporary scholarship on elites’ foreign policy beliefs is based upon the implicit assumption that the dimensions underpinning these attitudes are separate and distinct from those which undergird attitudes about domestic politics. Indeed, the dominant conception of Americans’ foreign policy beliefs uses labels to describe dimensions—militant internationalism and cooperative internationalism—which are relevant to international affairs but meaningless to domestic policy attitudes and disputes. Such accounts imply that people do not possess common principles, or ideology, that structure beliefs across both issue domains. We argue that the analytical barrier between foreign and domestic policy beliefs is artificial, at least for elite beliefs. Data from the 1988 Foreign Policy Leadership Project survey and the 1988–1992 Leadership Opinion Project panel study demonstrate that foreign and domestic policy beliefs share a common structure. Since this structure is strongly associated with simple self‐placement ...

The Role of Hostile Communications in a Crisis Simulation Game

Diplomacy rests on the proper tools and the successful implementation of communication. This article examines the impact of the tone of messages sent between opponents in a simulated crisis game. Findings are that hostile communications precipitate higher amounts of weapons purchasing and lower allotments of money to industrial production. Additional findings are that leaders who engage in friendly communications are more likely to negotiate, whereas those who exchange hostile messages are more likely to initiate or continue a war.

Self‐Effacing and Self‐Defeating Leadership: Adlai E. Stevenson

Using neo-Freudian analysis, this essay argues that as a child Adlai Stevenson experienced shame, anxiety, and ambivalence about the value and consequences of his initiative and autonomy. He responded with an imaginative coping mechanism, creating an idealized image in which ambition and autonomy were subordinated to duty and service. After a sequence of searing events during the Eriksonian period of identity versus role confusion, he resolved his identity crisis by becoming, in his mind, his idealized image. This conception of Stevensons character provides a rich explanation of his behavior in the presidential nomination contests of 1952 and 1960.