Jonathan J. Tyler

Assessing past temperature and soil pH estimates from bacterial tetraether membrane lipids: Evidence from the recent lake sediments of Lochnagar, Scotland

Past variation in soil pH and air temperature can potentially be reconstructed from the relative abundance in sediments of branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs), synthesized by anaerobic bacteria. Specifically, the cyclization of branched tetraethers (CBT) is believed to be a function of pH, whereas temperature can be estimated from a combination of the extent of both the CBT and methylation of branched tetraethers. Here we explore this potential by comparing a recent sedimentary GDGT profile from Lochnagar, Scotland, with reconstructed air temperature (statistically extrapolated from regional instrumental data sets) and diatom-inferred lake water pH for the past similar to 200 years. Branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetratether and diatom-inferred pH generally agree throughout the core, supporting the use of cyclization of branched tetraethers to reconstruct pH. During the period of rapid industrial acidification (similar to 1860-1970 A. D.), changes in diatom-inferred pH lag behind those inferred using branched tetraethers by between 10 and 50 years, possibly due to differing nonlinear responses to acid deposition within soil and lake water environments. However, branched-GDGT-derived temperatures are both lower than extrapolated mean annual air temperature estimates (by similar to 5 degrees C) and exhibit at least double the rate of reconstructed warming (similar to 2.5 degrees C in 200 years). At Lochnagar, methylation and cyclization of branched tetraethers are closely correlated (r(2) = 0.96) suggesting that in this setting the underlying controls over the two indices may not significantly differ. Therefore the validity of branched-GDGT-derived temperature is uncertain and further research is required to address the environmental controls over branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetratether synthesis and thus their value as palaeoclimate proxies.

Natural hazards in Australia: droughts

Droughts are a recurrent and natural part of the Australian hydroclimate, with evidence of drought dating back thousands of years. However, our ability to monitor, attribute, forecast and manage drought is exposed as insufficient whenever a drought occurs. This paper summarises what is known about drought hazard, as opposed to the impacts of drought, in Australia and finds that, unlike other hydroclimatic hazards, we currently have very limited ability to tell when a drought will begin or end. Understanding, defining, monitoring, forecasting and managing drought is also complex due to the variety of temporal and spatial scales at which drought occurs and the diverse direct and indirect causes and consequences of drought. We argue that to improve understanding and management of drought, three key research challenges should be targeted: (1) defining and monitoring drought characteristics (i.e. frequency, start, duration, magnitude, and spatial extent) to remove confusion between drought causes, impacts and risks and better distinguish between drought, aridity, and water scarcity due to over-extractions; (2) documenting historical (instrumental and pre-instrumental) variation in drought to better understand baseline drought characteristics, enable more rigorous identification and attribution of drought events or trends, inform/evaluate hydrological and climate modelling activities and give insights into possible future drought scenarios; (3) improving the prediction and projection of drought characteristics with seasonal to multidecadal lead times and including more realistic modelling of the multiple factors that cause (or contribute to) drought so that the impacts of natural variability and anthropogenic climate change are accounted for and the reliability of long-term drought projections increases.

A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era

Reproducible climate reconstructions of the Common Era (1 CE to present) are key to placing industrial-era warming into the context of natural climatic variability. Here we present a community-sourced database of temperature-sensitive proxy records from the PAGES2k initiative. The database gathers 692 records from 648 locations, including all continental regions and major ocean basins. The records are from trees, ice, sediment, corals, speleothems, documentary evidence, and other archives. They range in length from 50 to 2000 years, with a median of 547 years, while temporal resolution ranges from biweekly to centennial. Nearly half of the proxy time series are significantly correlated with HadCRUT4.2 surface temperature over the period 1850–2014. Global temperature composites show a remarkable degree of coherence between high- and low-resolution archives, with broadly similar patterns across archive types, terrestrial versus marine locations, and screening criteria. The database is suited to investigations of global and regional temperature variability over the Common Era, and is shared in the Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format, including serializations in Matlab, R and Python.

Pliocene reversal of late Neogene aridification.

Significance The warm climates of the Pliocene epoch are considered our best analog for a future anthropogenic greenhouse world. However, understanding of the nature of Pliocene climate variability and change on land is currently limited by the poor age control of most existing terrestrial climate archives. We present a radiometrically dated history of the evolution of Southern Hemisphere vegetation and hydroclimate from the latest Miocene to the middle Pliocene. These data reveal a sharp increase in precipitation in the Early Pliocene, which drove complete vegetation turnover. The development of warm, wet early Pliocene climates clearly reversed a long-term Southern Hemisphere trend of late Neogene cooling and aridification, highlighting the question of what initiated this sustained, ∼1.5-My-long interval of warmth. The Pliocene epoch (5.3–2.6 Ma) represents the most recent geological interval in which global temperatures were several degrees warmer than today and is therefore considered our best analog for a future anthropogenic greenhouse world. However, our understanding of Pliocene climates is limited by poor age control on existing terrestrial climate archives, especially in the Southern Hemisphere, and by persistent disagreement between paleo-data and models concerning the magnitude of regional warming and/or wetting that occurred in response to increased greenhouse forcing. To address these problems, here we document the evolution of Southern Hemisphere hydroclimate from the latest Miocene to the middle Pliocene using radiometrically-dated fossil pollen records preserved in speleothems from semiarid southern Australia. These data reveal an abrupt onset of warm and wet climates early within the Pliocene, driving complete biome turnover. Pliocene warmth thus clearly represents a discrete interval which reversed a long-term trend of late Neogene cooling and aridification, rather than being simply the most recent period of greater-than-modern warmth within a continuously cooling trajectory. These findings demonstrate the importance of high-resolution chronologies to accompany paleoclimate data and also highlight the question of what initiated the sustained interval of Pliocene warmth.

Seasonality and the isotope hydrology of Lochnagar, a Scottish mountain lake: implications for palaeoclimate research

The relationship between isotope ratios in precipitation and lake waters was monitored by bi-weekly measurements taken over a five and a half year period between May 2000 and September 2005 (a period of 1964 days) at Lochnagar, a remote mountain lake in eastern Scotland. Short-term changes in the oxygen isotope composition of lake water (δ18OL) at Lochnagar follow a seasonal pattern similar to isotopes in local precipitation (δ18OP), however changes in catchment residence time, snow accumulation, lake ice cover and lake stratification modify the temporal structure of δ18OL over the seasonal cycle. Of particular importance is precipitation amount, which controls catchment and lake residence times, and determines the degree of phase lag and amplitude change between δ18OL and δ18OP. A simple mass balance model replicates these effects and demonstrates that the degree of phase lag and amplitude reduction is predictable given known input/volume ratio. The implications of these observations for the use of δ18O records in palaeoclimatology are important, since it is rare that authigenic and biogenic minerals or organic compounds (from which δ18O and/or δ2H can be measured) are produced in a lake evenly throughout the year.

Tracking aquatic change using chlorin‐specific carbon and nitrogen isotopes: The last glacial‐interglacial transition at Lake Suigetsu, Japan

Joint carbon and nitrogen isotope measurements were made from chlorins (chlorophyll a, phaeophytin a and pyrophaeophytin a) extracted from the last glacial-interglacial transition sediments of Lake Suigetsu, central Japan. These data highlight both the potential and difficulty of using chlorin-specific isotopes to track aquatic change from lake sediments. δ13C and δ15N of the three chlorins show coherent patterns with time, supporting the theory that phaeophytin a and pyrophaeophytin a are early diagenetic products of chlorophyll a and that despite this transition, their isotopic signatures remain intact. However, our data suggest that the isotopic composition of phaeophytin a and pyrophaeophytin a can be imprecise proxies for the isotope composition of chlorophyll a, possibly owing to the complex array of factors which affect the synthesis, transformation and sedimentation of these phaeopigments in nature. The total accumulation of organic matter in Lake Suigetsu appears to be controlled by the balance of allocthonous and authocthonous material as reflected by the C/N ratio. However, both bulk organic and chlorin-specific δ13C show similar changes, suggesting that the first order variability in bulk organic δ13C reflects aquatic change. By contrast, there is no similarity between chlorin and bulk δ15N, suggesting that interpretation of bulk δ15N in this setting is compromised by diagenetic alteration. The isotopic composition of chlorins are interpreted to reflect the response of aquatic primary productivity to post-glacial environmental change. However, further research into the synthesis and transformation of chlorins in the modern environment is required in order to facilitate a more rigorous approach to interpreting isotope ratios in chlorins extracted from sediments.

Evidence for a bi-partition of the Younger Dryas Stadial in East Asia associated with inversed climate characteristics compared to Europe

The Younger Dryas Stadial (YDS) was an episode of northern hemispheric cooling which occurred within the Last Glacial Interglacial Transition (LGIT). A major driver for the YDS climate was a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). It has been inferred that the AMOC began to strengthen mid-YDS, producing a bipartite structure of the YDS in records from continental Europe. These records imply that the polar front and westerlies shifted northward, producing a warmer second phase of the YDS in Europe. Here we present multi-proxy data from the sediments of Lake Suigetsu (Japan), as evidence that a related bi-partition of the YDS also occurred in East Asia. Besides showing for the first time that the bi-partition was not limited to the North Atlantic/European region, the data also imply a climatic dipole between Europe and East Asia since the cold-warm characteristics are reversed at Lake Suigetsu. We suggest that changes in eastward moisture transport from the North Atlantic are the primary mechanism by which the teleconnection can be explained.

Post-mortem oxygen isotope exchange within cultured diatom silica

Rationale Potential post‐mortem alteration to the oxygen isotope composition of biogenic silica is critical to the validity of palaeoclimate reconstructions based on oxygen isotope ratios (δ18O values) from sedimentary silica. We calculate the degree of oxygen isotope alteration within freshly cultured diatom biogenic silica in response to heating and storing in the laboratory. Methods The experiments used freshly cultured diatom silica. Silica samples were either stored in water or dried at temperatures between 20 °C and 80 °C. The mass of affected oxygen and the associated silica‐water isotope fractionation during alteration were calculated by conducting parallel experiments using endmember waters with δ18O values of −6.3 to −5.9 ‰ and −36.3 to −35.0 ‰. Dehydroxylation and subsequent oxygen liberation were achieved by stepwise fluorination with BrF5. The 18O/16O ratios were measured using a ThermoFinnigan MAT 253 isotope ratio mass spectrometer. Results Significant alterations in silica δ18O values were observed, most notably an increase in the δ18O values following drying at 40–80 °C. Storage in water for 7 days between 20 and 80 °C also led to significant alteration in δ18O values. Mass balance calculations suggest that the amount of affected oxygen is positively correlated with temperature. The estimated oxygen isotope fractionation during alteration is an inverse function of temperature, consistent with the extrapolation of models for high‐temperature silica‐water oxygen isotope fractionation. Conclusions Routinely used preparatory methods may impart significant alterations to the δ18O values of biogenic silica, particularly when dealing with modern cultured or field‐collected material. The significance of such processes within natural aquatic environments is uncertain; however, there is potential that similar processes also affect sedimentary diatoms, with implications for the interpretation of biogenic silica‐hosted δ18O palaeoclimate records.

Data Descriptor: A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era

PAGES, a core project of Future Earth, is supported by the U.S. and Swiss National Science Foundations. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Some of this work was conducted as part of the North America 2k Working Group supported by the John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis, funded by the U.S. Geological Survey. B. Bauer, W. Gross, and E. Gille (NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information) are gratefully acknowledged for helping assemble the data citations and creating the NCEI versions of the PAGES 2k data records. We thank all the investigators whose commitment to data sharing enables the open science ethos embodied by this project.