Jonathan Knuckey

Explaining Recent Changes in the Partisan Identifications of Southern Whites

Scholars of southern partisan change have been reluctant to proclaim a realignment among southern whites. Despite a Republican advantage in presidential elections, a Democratic advantage continued to persist in party identifications. However, in the 1990s a Republican advantage in party identifications emerged, one that has persisted throughout the decade. Indeed in 2000 a majority of southern whites held Republican party identifications, while only one in three southern whites held Democratic identifications. This article examines the causes of the changing party identifications of southern whites in the 1990s and focuses on four explanations that have been discussed by scholars: the role of racial attitudes, social class polarization, social and cultural attitudes and general ideological realignment. Using a multivariate analysis, the study finds that national forces, specifically an ideological realignment and class-status polarization played some role in producing changes in partisanship of southern whites. However, regional differences between the South and the rest of the nation remained evident, with racial attitudes and views on abortion exerting significant effects on party identifications in the 1990s. The findings suggest that the Republican advantage in party identifications that emerged in the 1990s is durable and, if anything, is likely to increase in future years.

Racial Resentment and the Changing Partisanship of Southern Whites

One of the most important developments in southern politics in recent years has been the increase in the number of whites holding Republican Party identifications. This article examines the effects of racial attitudes on changing levels of partisanship. Specifically, the article focuses on the concept of racial resentment or symbolic racism. This is an appropriate concept to examine the effects of the contemporary racial attitudes on partisanship, as racial issues have become much more diffuse in nature. It is argued that in the 1990s the southern Republican congressional leadership was especially successful in making salient issues likely to activate the racial resentment of southern whites. A multivariate analysis demonstrates that racial resentment was not a strong or significant predictor of partisanship prior to 1994; however, in 1994 and 2000 racial resentment had a large and significant effect on partisanship. These findings suggest that race and racial attitudes continue to shape southern party politics in the early twenty-first century.

A New Front in the Culture War? Moral Traditionalism and Voting Behavior in U.S. House Elections

This article examines the effect of cultural values on voting behavior in elections belowthe presidential level. Using data from the American National Election Studies, the article examines the effect of moral traditionalism on individual-level vote choice in U.S. House elections. Findings indicate that a newfront has been opened in the culturewar, with moral traditionalism exerting an indirect effect on vote choice through party identification and, most importantly, a direct effect since the mid-to-late 1990s, one thatwas hitherto not evident. This suggests that a greater emphasis placed on cultural issues by candidates and other political elites, or possibly changes in the images held by the electorate of both parties, has resulted in a moral traditionalism cleavage being driven down to voting behavior at the congressional level. Overall, these findings suggest a widening and deepening of a cultural values-based realignment of the American electorate.

The “Palin Effect” in the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election

Using data from the American National Election Studies, this article addresses whether the Sarah Palin affected vote choice in 2008. Findings indicate not only that evaluations of Palin were a strong predictor of vote choice—even when controlling for confounding variables—but also that Palin’s effect on vote choice was the largest of any vice presidential candidate in elections examined dating back to 1980. Theoretically, the article offers support for the proposition that a running mate is an important short-term force affecting voting behavior. Substantively, the article suggests that Palin may have contributed to a loss of support among “swing voters.”

The survival of the Democratic Party outside the South An update and reassessment

Partisan change outside of the South has not been studied as extensively as in the 11 states of the Old Confederacy. Given the partisan advantage that the Democratic Party enjoys outside of the South, understanding the dynamics of party support among non-southerners appears to be important to study in its own right – not just as a point of contrast to that of the South. The goal of this article is to update and expand on one of the few pieces of scholarship to probe the reasons for the survival of the Democratic Party outside of the South. Using data from the American National Election Studies, the article concurs with these findings, that the Democratic Party has been successful in maintaining support among low income whites outside the South. However, a class-based explanation offers a partial explanation for the Democratic advantage in party identification. Ideological realignment has also expanded the Democratic base among middle and high income liberals and moderates. Overall, the findings of the article suggest that the electoral prospects of the Democratic Party outside of the South should be favourable for some time to come. The Democratic Party has not just survived outside of the South, it has prospered, and this provides a decided advantage for the party in national elections.

Comments on “Reconsidering the ‘Palin Effect’”

In this note some brief comments are provided on Burmilla and Ryan’s “Reconsidering ‘The Palin Effect’ in the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election.” Specifically, Burmilla and Ryan’s conceptualization of the “Palin Effect” and their revised model specification are critiqued. Their findings that Palin exerted an effect on vote choice that was typical for any vice-presidential nominee also stands in contrast to several studies that conclude that Palin’s effect on vote choice in 2008 was far from typical.