Jonathan R. Olsen

Epidemiology of molluscum contagiosum in children: a systematic review

BACKGROUND Molluscum contagiosum (MC) is a common skin condition that primarily affects children, a common reason for presenting in primary care and is commonly seen in children presenting with other conditions in primary and secondary care. It is usually asymptomatic but can present with pain, pruritus, erythema and bacterial superinfection. Aim. To synthesize the current epidemiology of MC. Design and setting. A systematic literature review of bibliographical databases on the prevalence, incidence, risk factors, age distribution and association with other conditions for MC in children. RESULTS Data on the epidemiology of MC is largely of poor quality. The largest incidence is in children aged between 0 and 14 years, where the incidence rate ranged from 12 to 14 episodes per 1000 children per year. Incidence rates in the UK were highest in those aged 1-4 years. Meta-analysis suggests a point prevalence in children aged 0-16 years of between 5.1% and 11.5%. There is evidence for an association between swimming and having MC and MC is more common in those with eczema; however, there is little evidence for other risk factors. CONCLUSIONS MC is a common condition, with the greatest incidence being in those aged 1-4 years. Swimming and eczema are associated with the presence of MC, but the causal relationships are unclear. There is a lack of data regarding the natural history of MC and published data are insufficient to determine temporal or geographic patterns in incidence, risk factors, duration of symptoms or transmission between family members.

Quality of life impact of childhood skin conditions measured using the Children's Dermatology Life Quality Index (CDLQI): a meta-analysis

The Childrens Dermatology Life Quality Index (CDLQI) is the most widely used instrument for measuring the impact of skin disease on quality of life (QoL) in children.

Time to resolution and effect on quality of life of molluscum contagiosum in children in the UK: a prospective community cohort study

BACKGROUND Molluscum contagiosum is one of the 50 most prevalent diseases worldwide, but scarce epidemiological data exist for childhood molluscum contagiosum. We aimed to describe the time to resolution, transmission to household child contacts, and effect on quality of life of molluscum contagiosum in children in the UK. METHODS Between Jan 1, and Oct 31, 2013, we recruited 306 children with molluscum contagiosum aged between 4 and 15 years in the UK either by referral by general practitioner or self-referral (with diagnosis made by parents by use of the validated Molluscum Contagiosum Diagnostic Tool for Parents [MCDTP]). All participants were asked to complete a questionnaire at recruitment about participant characteristics, transmission, and quality of life. We measured quality of life with the Childrens Dermatology Life Quality Index (CDLQI). Participants were prospectively followed up every month to check on their recovery from molluscum contagiosum and transmission to other children in the same household, until the childs lesions were no longer visible. FINDINGS The mean time to resolution was 13·3 months (SD 8·2). 80 (30%) of 269 cases had not resolved by 18 months; 36 (13%) had not resolved by 24 months. We recorded transmission to other children in the household in 102 (41%) of 250 cases. Molluscum contagiosum had a small effect on quality of life for most participants, although 33 (11%) of 301 participants had a very severe effect on quality of life (CDLQI score >13). A greater number of lesions was associated with a greater effect on quality of life (H=55·8, p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION One in ten children with molluscum contagiosum is likely to have a substantial effect on their quality of life and therefore treatment should be considered for some children, especially those with many lesions or who have been identified as having a severe effect on quality of life. Patients with molluscum contagiosum and their parents need to be given accurate information about the expected natural history of the disorder. Our data provide the most reliable estimates of the expected time to resolution so far and can be used to help set realistic expectations. FUNDING Wales School of Primary Care Research (WSPCR) and Cardiff University.

Effects of new urban motorway infrastructure on road traffic accidents in the local area: a retrospective longitudinal study in Scotland.

Background The M74 motorway extension, Glasgow, opened in June 2011. One justification for construction was an expectation that it would reduce road traffic accidents (RTAs) on local non-motorway roads. This study evaluated the impact of the extension on the number of RTAs, stratifying by accident severity. Methods Data for the period 1997–2014 were extracted from a UK database of reported RTAs involving a personal injury. RTA severity was defined by the level of injury: minor, severe or fatal. RTAs were assigned to (1) the local area surrounding the motorway extension, (2) a comparator area surrounding an existing motorway or (3) a control area elsewhere in the conurbation. Interrupted time-series regression with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) errors was used to determine longitudinal between-area differences in change in the number of RTAs, which might indicate an intervention effect. Results Glasgow and surrounding local authorities saw a 50.6% reduction in annual RTAs (n: 5901 to 2914) between 1997 and 2014. In the intervention area, the number of recorded RTAs decreased by 50.7% (n: 758 to 374), and that of fatal/severe RTAs by 57.4% (n: 129 to 55), with similar reductions in the comparator/control areas. The interrupted time-series analysis showed no significant between-area differences in temporal trends. The reduction of pedestrian casualties was attenuated in the intervention area relative to Glasgow and surrounding authorities. Conclusions Reduction in RTAs was not associated with the motorway extension. Our findings suggest that in planning future investment, it should not be taken for granted that new road infrastructure alone will reduce RTAs in local areas. Urbanisation is proceeding rapidly worldwide, and evidence of infrastructure changes is lacking; this novel study provides important findings for future developments.

Molluscum contagiosum and associations with atopic eczema in children: a retrospective longitudinal study in primary care.

BACKGROUND Molluscum contagiosum (MC) is a common skin condition in children. Consultation rates and current management in primary care, and how these have changed over time, are poorly described. An association between the presence of atopic eczema (AE) and MC has been shown, but the subsequent risk of developing MC in children with a diagnosis of AE is not known. AIM To describe the consultation rate and management of MC in general practice in the UK over time, and test the hypothesis that a history of AE increases the risk of developing MC in childhood. DESIGN AND SETTING Two studies are reported: a retrospective longitudinal study of MC cases and an age-sex matched case-cohort study of AE cases, both datasets being held in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink from 2004 to 2013. METHOD Data of all recorded MC and AE primary care consultations for children aged 0 to 14 years were collected and two main analyses were conducted using these data: a retrospective longitudinal analysis and an age-sex matched case-cohort analysis. RESULTS The rate of MC consultations in primary care for children aged 0 to 14 years is 9.5 per 1000 (95% CI = 9.4 to 9.6). The greatest rate of consultations for both sexes is in children aged 1-4 years and 5-9 years (13.1 to 13.0 (males) and 13.0 to 13.9 (females) per 1000 respectively). Consultation rates for MC have declined by 50% from 2004 to 2013. Children were found to be more likely to have an MC consultation if they had previously consulted a GP with AE (OR 1.13; 95% CI = 1.11 to 1.16; P<0.005). CONCLUSION Consultations for MC in primary care are common, especially in 1-9-year-olds, but they declined significantly during the decade under study. A primary care diagnosis of AE is associated with an increased risk of a subsequent primary care diagnosis of MC.

Development and validation of the Molluscum Contagiosum Diagnostic Tool for Parents: diagnostic accuracy study in primary care

BACKGROUND Molluscum contagiosum (MC) is diagnosed by its distinct appearance. Parental diagnosis of MC may reduce anxiety and lead to reductions in healthcare consultations, and may be particularly useful in large-scale epidemiological studies. However, there are currently no published, validated tools allowing parental diagnosis of MC. AIM To develop and validate a tool for parental diagnosis of MC. DESIGN AND SETTING The Molluscum Contagiosum Diagnostic Tool for Parents (MCDTP) was developed and its diagnostic accuracy was compared with GP diagnosis in 12 GP surgeries in South Wales. METHOD Following development, which involved three phases with dermatologists, nurses, GPs, and parents, parents completed the MCDTP (index test) in the practice waiting room, and rated their confidence in their diagnosis. A GP then examined their child for MC (reference test). Test characteristics were calculated for all responders and for those who expressed being confident or very confident in their diagnosis. RESULTS A total of 203 parents completed the MCDTP. The MCDTP showed a sensitivity of 91.5% (95% confidence intervals (CI) = 81.3 to 97.2) and a specificity of 88.2% (95% CI = 81.8 to 93.0) in all parents and a sensitivity of 95.8% (95% CI = 85.7 to 99.5) and a specificity of 90.9% (95% CI = 83.9 to 95.6) in parents who were confident or very confident in their diagnosis. The positive predictive value was 76.1% (95% CI = 64.5 to 85.4) and negative predictive value was 96.2% (95% CI = 91.4 to 98.8) for all parents. CONCLUSION The MCDTP performed well compared with GP diagnosis and is suitable for clinical use by parents and in population-based studies.

Accessibility of sexual health services in teenage sexual health service users: local area geospatial analysis

BACKGROUND Teenage pregnancy rates in the UK are the highest in Western Europe. Causes of teenage pregnancies are multifaceted with complex interplay of social, lifestyle and wider determinants influencing risk. Improving access to sexual health services through community services is an important factor in attempting to tackle this issue, but few studies have examined factors that influence this. METHODS Geospatial analysis was conducted on community sexual health service users and teenage conceptions from local sexual health services were recorded. Univariate and multinomial regression was performed to test associations between service type and socio-economic status. RESULTS No significant differences in accessibility of services between teenage girls who have conceived and those seeking sexual health services were found. Females aged 17 and under were more likely to use a young peoples sexual health service than mainstream services (P < 0.001). However, a young person living in the most deprived quintiles was more likely to use a mainstream service if it was closer to their home address (adjusted odds ratios: 2.154, 95% confidence intervals: 1.533-3.027). CONCLUSIONS Service type and socio-economic status impact upon the choices young people make when accessing community sexual health services. The study supports policy for locating young person services within the most deprived areas of a community.

Effect of a new motorway on social-spatial patterning of road traffic accidents: a retrospective longitudinal natural experimental study

Background The World Health Organisation reports that road traffic accidents (accidents) could become the seventh leading cause of death globally by 2030. Accidents often occur in spatial clusters and, generally, there are more accidents in less advantaged areas. Infrastructure changes, such as new roads, can affect the locations and magnitude of accident clusters but evidence of impact is lacking. A new 5-mile motorway extension was opened in 2011 in Glasgow, Scotland. Previous research found no impact on the number of accidents but did not consider their spatial location or socio-economic setting. We evaluated impacts on these, both locally and city-wide. Methods We used STATS19 data covering the period 2008 to 2014 and describing the location and details of all reported accidents involving a personal injury. Poisson-based continuous scan statistics were used to detect spatial clusters of accidents and any change in these over time. Change in the socio-economic distribution of accident cluster locations during the study period was also assessed. Results In each year accidents were strongly clustered, with statistically significant clusters more likely to occur in socio-economically deprived areas. There was no significant shift in the magnitude or location of accident clusters during motorway construction or following opening, either locally or city-wide. There was also no impact on the socio-economic patterning of accident cluster locations. Conclusions Although urban infrastructure changes occur constantly, all around the world, this is the first study to evaluate the impact of such changes on road accident clusters. Despite expectations to the contrary from both proponents and opponents of the M74 extension, we found no beneficial or adverse change in the socio-spatial distribution of accidents associated with its construction, opening or operation. Our approach and findings can help inform urban planning internationally.

Changes over time in population level transport satisfaction and mode of travel: A 13 year repeat cross-sectional study, UK

Aim The aim of the study was to examine changes over time in satisfaction with usual transport mode, explore individual and area level characteristics as mediators in the likelihood of transport satisfaction, and whether any changes in transport satisfaction varied by these factors over time. Methods Adults from West Central Scotland, United Kingdom, who participated at both waves of the repeat cross-sectional ‘Transport, Health and Well-being Study’ conducted in 1997 (n=2735) and 2010 (n=2024) were assessed. Individuals completed a detailed postal questionnaire at both time points including self-rated satisfaction with usual transport mode (using a seven point scale subsequently dichotomised to a binary outcome of satisfied (1–2) and other (3–7)). Participants reported usual transport mode for travel to various destinations. A multilevel logistic regression model was used and individuals were nested within areas (c. 4000 population). Results At the 2010 sweep, two thirds (n=1345) of individuals were satisfied with their transport choice. Those with fair/poor health were less satisfied with their usual transport compared to those in better health (Odds Ratio (OR) 0.49, p<0.001). Access to a car was associated with overall transport satisfaction (OR 2.63, p<0.001) and the effect of deprivation on transport satisfaction was mitigated when adjusted by household car access. Transport satisfaction increased more from 1997 to 2010 for retired individuals compared to those in employment (OR 1.40, p=0.032), and for those who travelled by public transport (OR 2.39, p=0.005) and using multiple modes (OR 2.19, p<0.001) compared to those who travelled by car. Conclusions The proportion of those who travelled using public transport, active modes or by multiple mode increased journey satisfaction over time at a greater rate than those who travelled by car, highlighting that continued efforts should be made to promote these more active transport modes which have potential to impact on health.

Are Changes in Neighbourhood Perceptions Associated with Changes in Self-Rated Mental Health in Adults? A 13-Year Repeat Cross-Sectional Study, UK

The aim of this study was to examine changes in neighbourhood perceptions on self-rated mental health problems over time, and to explore demographic, geographic and socio-economic factors as determinants of increased or decreased anxiety and depression symptoms. We conducted a repeat cross-sectional study of individuals (N: 4480) living in the same areas of west central Scotland in 1997 and 2010. Individuals were asked to complete a questionnaire at both time-points, containing 14 questions relating to neighbourhood perceptions and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS). A three-level linear regression model was fitted to HADS scores and changes in neighbourhood perceptions over time; controlling for a number of individual and area-level variables. Overall, area-level mean HADS scores decreased from 1997 to 2010. When adjusted for individual and area-level variables, this decrease did not remain for HADS anxiety. Applying an overall 14-scale neighbourhood perception measure, worsening neighbourhood perceptions were associated with small increases in depression (0.04, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.01 to 0.07) and anxiety (0.04, 95% CI 0.00 to 0.08) scores over time. This highlights a need for local and national policy to target areas where neighbourhood characteristics are substantially deteriorating in order to ensure the mental health of individuals does not worsen.