Jonathan Wilkenfeld

Mediation Style and Crisis Outcomes

This study focuses on the varying effectiveness of three mediation styles—facilitation, formulation, and manipulation—on international crises. Effectiveness is assessed in terms of three outcome variables: formal agreement, post-crisis tension reduction, and contribution to crisis abatement. The authors analyze new data on the mediation process from the International Crisis Behavior project (1918-2001). Manipulation has the strongest effect on the likelihood of both reaching a formal agreement and contributing to crisis abatement. Facilitation has the greatest influence on increasing the prospects for lasting tension reduction. The authors explore how the different styles affect the strategic bargaining environment to explain these differences in impact. The findings suggest that mediators should use a balance of styles if they are to maximize their overall effectiveness.

Mediating International Crises CROSS-NATIONAL AND EXPERIMENTAL PERSPECTIVES

This study focuses on mediation as a means for mitigating or at least minimizing the potentially turbulent and violent consequences of international crises. Two main research questions are explored: (1) Does mediation in general affect the dynamics and outcomes of crisis negotiations? and (2) Does the impact of mediation vary in accordance with mediator style? Data are drawn from the International Crisis Behavior data set and from ongoing experimental work with human subjects. The historical data reveal that mediated crises are more typically characterized by compromise among crisis actors, are more likely to end in agreements, and show a tendency toward long-term tension reduction. The experimental research confirmed the relationship between mediation and the achievement of agreement and also revealed that mediation leads to crises of shorter duration and to greater satisfaction by the parties with the outcome. A manipulative mediation style is more likely to yield favorable crisis management outcomes than is a more restrictive facilitative style.

Resolving crises through automated bilateral negotiations

We describe the development of an automated agent that can negotiate efficiently with people in crises. The environment is characterized by two negotiators, time constraints, deadlines, full information, and the possibility of opting out. The agent can play either role, with communications via a pre-defined language. The model used in constructing the agent is based on a formal analysis of the crises scenario using game-theoretic methods and heuristics for bargaining. The agent receives messages sent by its opponent, analyzes them and responds. It also initiates discussion on one or more parameters of an agreement. Experimental results of simulations of a fishing dispute between Canada and Spain indicate that the agent played at least as well as, and in the case of Spain, significantly better than a human player.

Crises in World Politics

In examining patterns in international crises, the authors offer one path to a cocerted attack on a central phenomenon in world politics. After surveying the releva literature, including competing definitions, they set forth a conceptual map of int national crisis variables: actor attributes (age, territory, regime, capability, values system characteristics (size, geography, structure, alliance configuration, stability); a the crisis dimensions they wish to explain (trigger, actor behavior, superpower activity, and the role of international organizations—that is, crisis management, of come, and consequences). From this taxonomy they have developed a research frar work on international crisis, and, as an illustration of more narrow explanatory devie a crisis management-outcome model. Three clusters of hypotheses on the substar and form of crisis outcomes, and the duration of crises, are then tested against I evidence from 185 cases for the period from 1945 to 1962. The ultimate aim is illuminate international crises over a 50-year period, 1930–1980, across all continer cultures, and political and economic systems in the contemporary era.

GENIE: a decision support system for crisis negotiations

Decision support systems can play a role in improving the ability of decision makers to act as utility maximizers in crisis situations. This paper demonstrates the ability of one such decision support system, GENIE, to help decision makers maximize their objectives in a crisis negotiation. GENIE is described in detail, followed by the presentation of preliminary experimental results evaluating its effectiveness in crisis management and abatement. The experimental results show that GENIE users, as compared to non-users, are more likely to identify utility maximization as their primary objective and to achieve high utility scores. Experiments in which GENIE users participate are also more likely to end in agreement among the parties, rather than in an outcome in which one of the parties opts out of the negotiation.

Exploitation vs. exploration: choosing a supplier in an environment of incomplete information

An agent operating in the real world must often choose between maximizing its expected utility according to its current knowledge about the world and trying to learn more about the world, since this may improve its future gains. This problem is known as the trade-off between exploitation and exploration. In this research, we consider this problem in the context of electronic commerce. An agent intends to buy a particular product (goods or service). There are several potential suppliers of this product, but they differ in their quality and in the price charged. The buyer cannot observe the average quality of each product, but he has some knowledge about the quality of previous goods purchased from the suppliers. On the one hand, the buyer is motivated to buy the goods from the supplier with the highest expected product quality, deducting the product price. However, when buying from a lesser known supplier, the buyer can learn about its quality and this can help him in the future, when he will purchase more products of this type. We show the similarity of the suppliers problem to the k-armed bandit problem, and we suggest solving the suppliers problem by evaluating Gittins indices and choosing the supplier with the optimal index. We demonstrate how Gittins indices are calculated in real world situations, where deals of different magnitudes may exist, and where product prices may vary. Finally, we consider the existence of suppliers with no history and suggest how the original Gittins indices can be adapted in order to consider this extension.

Power Play: Mediation in Symmetric and Asymmetric International Crises

International relations scholars have long focused on power relations among nations as an explanatory factor for a wide variety of state behaviors, including alliance formation, strategic interactions, and negotiation strategies. Power transition theorists have argued that war is most likely when power is equally distributed among nations or, more precisely, when the power of the challenger approaches—or begins to exceed—that of its opponent (Organski, 1968; Organski and Kugler, 1980; Kugler and Lemke, 1996). Balance of power theorists, on the other hand, have argued that equality of power among nations diminishes the chance of war, as uncertainty about outcomes caused by approximate power parity leads actors to be more cautious (Claude, 1962; Wright, 1965). The research presented here considers relative power not as a cause of conflict, as these previous studies have done, but as a factor relevant to conflict resolution efforts. In this study, we focus on crises as a specific instance of conflicts in the international system and on mediation as a specific conflict resolution measure. Building upon previous work (Wilkenfeld et al., 2003, 2005), we examine the way mediation styles and power relations among crisis actors interact and impact on whether the crisis ends in an agreement, and whether the crisis outcome leads to long-term, postcrisis tension reductions. This research is intended to extend understanding of the nature of crisis behavior and to inform efforts to manage crises most effectively.

International Crises, 1945–1975: The UN Dimension

This study focuses on the record of UN involvement in international crises during the 1945–1975 period. It is guided by two general research questions: (1) what is the relationship between the attributes of international crises and the extent, substance, substance, and effectiveness of UN activity; and (2) under what conditions is UN intervention in international crises likely to lead to favorable outcomes. Data on 160 crises are drawn from the International Crisis Behavior Project data set. In general, we find that while the UN intervened in only 59% of all crises, its rate of intervention in serious crises (crises with violent triggers, grave threat, violent crisis management techniques, and large numbers of participants) was considerably higher. The UN was most effective in crisis abatement in crises involving full scale war. Crises with UN intervention were more likely than others to terminate in some form of agreement among the parties.

Gender ideologies and forms of contentious mobilization in the Middle East

This article explores those factors that shape a political organization’s choice of tactics in political mobilization with a particular focus on the influence of gender ideology on the choice of different type of contentious action. To understand why political organizations engaging in contentious politics choose to employ violent tactics, nonviolent tactics, or a mixture of both, current scholarship has tended to focus on factors such as relationship with the government, external support, and religious or leftist ideology. Far less attention has been given to the role of an organization’s ideology relating to gender when predicting its behavior. In addition, much of the analysis of contentious activity has analyzed the use of violence or protest separately and rarely examines the choice of a mixed strategy. We employ a time-series multinomial logistic regression analysis to examine the Middle East Minorities at Risk Organizational Behavior dataset (MAROB), including data over 24 years on 104 ethno-political organizations that have used a range of tactics including protest, violence, and/or a mix of the two, to investigate organizational and state-level variables that lead organizations to choose different strategies. We find that a number of variables can influence a movement’s choice to engage in one strategy over another. Gender-inclusive ideology makes an organization more likely to engage in protest and less likely to choose a violent or mixed strategy.

A strategic negotiations model with applications to an international crisis

The area of automated negotiation has been of particular interest in AI due to the important role negotiations play in facilitating understanding and the achievement of cooperation among entities with differing interests, whether they be individuals, organizations, governments, or automated agents. A strategic model for negotiation of alternative offers is presented with specific application to international crises. In the model, both players can opt out, and while one loses over time, the other gains (up to a point). Specific issues are: conflicting objectives and utility functions of parties and the impact of time on bargaining behavior in crises. The general model has relevance to the hostage crisis from which it was built, and subsequent applicability in building an automated negotiation agent for experimental and training purposes. >