Jordan D. Satler

How to fail at species delimitation

Species delimitation is the act of identifying species‐level biological diversity. In recent years, the field has witnessed a dramatic increase in the number of methods available for delimiting species. However, most recent investigations only utilize a handful (i.e. 2–3) of the available methods, often for unstated reasons. Because the parameter space that is potentially relevant to species delimitation far exceeds the parameterization of any existing method, a given method necessarily makes a number of simplifying assumptions, any one of which could be violated in a particular system. We suggest that researchers should apply a wide range of species delimitation analyses to their data and place their trust in delimitations that are congruent across methods. Incongruence across the results from different methods is evidence of either a difference in the power to detect cryptic lineages across one or more of the approaches used to delimit species and could indicate that assumptions of one or more of the methods have been violated. In either case, the inferences drawn from species delimitation studies should be conservative, for in most contexts it is better to fail to delimit species than it is to falsely delimit entities that do not represent actual evolutionary lineages.

Poor Fit to the Multispecies Coalescent is Widely Detectable in Empirical Data

Model checking is a critical part of Bayesian data analysis, yet it remains largely unused in systematic studies. Phylogeny estimation has recently moved into an era of increasingly complex models that simultaneously account for multiple evolutionary processes, the statistical fit of these models to the data has rarely been tested. Here we develop a posterior predictive simulation-based model check for a commonly used multispecies coalescent model, implemented in *BEAST, and apply it to 25 published data sets. We show that poor model fit is detectable in the majority of data sets; that this poor fit can mislead phylogenetic estimation; and that in some cases it stems from processes of inherent interest to systematists. We suggest that as systematists scale up to phylogenomic data sets, which will be subject to a heterogeneous array of evolutionary processes, critically evaluating the fit of models to data is an analytical step that can no longer be ignored.

The evolution of phylogeographic data sets.

Empirical phylogeographic studies have progressively sampled greater numbers of loci over time, in part motivated by theoretical papers showing that estimates of key demographic parameters improve as the number of loci increases. Recently, next‐generation sequencing has been applied to questions about organismal history, with the promise of revolutionizing the field. However, no systematic assessment of how phylogeographic data sets have changed over time with respect to overall size and information content has been performed. Here, we quantify the changing nature of these genetic data sets over the past 20 years, focusing on papers published in Molecular Ecology. We found that the number of independent loci, the total number of alleles sampled and the total number of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) per data set has improved over time, with particularly dramatic increases within the past 5 years. Interestingly, uniparentally inherited organellar markers (e.g. animal mitochondrial and plant chloroplast DNA) continue to represent an important component of phylogeographic data. Single‐species studies (cf. comparative studies) that focus on vertebrates (particularly fish and to some extent, birds) represent the gold standard of phylogeographic data collection. Based on the current trajectory seen in our survey data, forecast modelling indicates that the median number of SNPs per data set for studies published by the end of the year 2016 may approach ~20 000. This survey provides baseline information for understanding the evolution of phylogeographic data sets and underscores the fact that development of analytical methods for handling very large genetic data sets will be critical for facilitating growth of the field.

Model selection as a tool for phylogeographic inference: an example from the willow Salix melanopsis

Phylogeographic inference has typically relied on analyses of data from one or a few genes to provide estimates of demography and population histories. While much has been learned from these studies, all phylogeographic analysis is conditioned on the data, and thus, inferences derived from data that represent a small sample of the genome are unavoidably tenuous. Here, we demonstrate one approach for moving beyond classic phylogeographic research. We use sequence capture probes and Illumina sequencing to generate data from >400 loci in order to infer the phylogeographic history of Salix melanopsis, a riparian willow with a disjunct distribution in coastal and the inland Pacific Northwest. We evaluate a priori phylogeographic hypotheses using coalescent models for parameter estimation, and the results support earlier findings that identified post‐Pleistocene dispersal as the cause of the disjunction in S. melanopsis. We also conduct a series of model selection exercises using IMa2, Migrate‐n and ∂a∂i. The resulting ranking of models indicates that refugial dynamics were complex, with multiple regions in the inland regions serving as the source for postglacial colonization. Our results demonstrate that new sources of data and new approaches to data analysis can rejuvenate phylogeographic research by allowing for the identification of complex models that enable researchers to both identify and estimate the most relevant parameters for a given system.

Phylogeographic concordance factors quantify phylogeographic congruence among co-distributed species in the Sarracenia alata pitcher plant system

Comparative phylogeographic investigations have identified congruent phylogeographic breaks in co‐distributed species in nearly every region of the world. The qualitative assessments of phylogeographic patterns traditionally used to identify such breaks, however, are limited because they rely on identifying monophyletic groups across species and do not account for coalescent stochasticity. Only long‐standing phylogeographic breaks are likely to be obvious; many species could have had a concerted response to more recent landscape events, yet possess subtle signs of phylogeographic congruence because ancestral polymorphism has not completely sorted. Here, we introduce Phylogeographic Concordance Factors (PCFs), a novel method for quantifying phylogeographic congruence across species. We apply this method to the Sarracenia alata pitcher plant system, a carnivorous plant with a diverse array of commensal organisms. We explore whether a group of ecologically associated arthropods have co‐diversified with the host pitcher plant, and identify if there is a positive correlation between ecological interaction and PCFs. Results demonstrate that multiple arthropods share congruent phylogeographic breaks with S. alata, and provide evidence that the level of ecological association can be used to predict the degree of similarity in the phylogeographic pattern. This study outlines an approach for quantifying phylogeographic congruence, a central concept in biogeographic research.

Biogeographic barriers drive co-diversification within associated eukaryotes of the Sarracenia alata pitcher plant system

Understanding if the members of an ecological community have co-diversified is a central concern of evolutionary biology, as co-diversification suggests prolonged association and possible coevolution. By sampling associated species from an ecosystem, researchers can better understand how abiotic and biotic factors influence diversification in a region. In particular, studies of co-distributed species that interact ecologically can allow us to disentangle the effect of how historical processes have helped shape community level structure and interactions. Here we investigate the Sarracenia alata pitcher plant system, an ecological community where many species from disparate taxonomic groups live inside the fluid-filled pitcher leaves. Direct sequencing of the eukaryotes present in the pitcher plant fluid enables us to better understand how a host plant can shape and contribute to the genetic structure of its associated inquilines, and to ask whether genetic variation in the taxa are structured in a similar manner to the host plant. We used 454 amplicon-based metagenomics to demonstrate that the pattern of genetic diversity in many, but not all, of the eukaryotic community is similar to that of S. alata, providing evidence that associated eukaryotes share an evolutionary history with the host pitcher plant. Our work provides further evidence that a host plant can influence the evolution of its associated commensals.

Do ecological communities disperse across biogeographic barriers as a unit

Biogeographic barriers have long been implicated as drivers of biological diversification, but how these barriers influence co‐occurring taxa can vary depending on factors intrinsic to the organism and in their relationships with other species. Due to the interdependence among taxa, ecological communities present a compelling opportunity to explore how interactions among species may lead to a shared response to historical events. Here we collect single nucleotide polymorphism data from five commensal arthropods associated with the Sarracenia alata carnivorous pitcher plant, and test for codiversification across the Mississippi River, a major biogeographic barrier in the southeastern United States. Population genetic structure in three of the ecologically dependent arthropods mirrors that of the host pitcher plant, with divergence time estimates suggesting two of the species (the pitcher plant moth Exyra semicrocea and a flesh fly Sarcophaga sarraceniae) dispersed synchronously across this barrier along with the pitcher plant. Patterns in population size and genetic diversity suggest the plant and ecologically dependent arthropods dispersed from east to west across the Mississippi River. In contrast, species less dependent on the plant ecologically show discordant phylogeographic patterns. This study demonstrates that ecological relationships may be an important predictor of codiversification, and supports recent suggestions that organismal trait data should be prominently featured in comparative phylogeographic investigations.