Jorge Lorenzo-Lacruz

Response of vegetation to drought time-scales across global land biomes

We evaluated the response of the Earth land biomes to drought by correlating a drought index with three global indicators of vegetation activity and growth: vegetation indices from satellite imagery, tree-ring growth series, and Aboveground Net Primary Production (ANPP) records. Arid and humid biomes are both affected by drought, and we suggest that the persistence of the water deficit (i.e., the drought time-scale) could be playing a key role in determining the sensitivity of land biomes to drought. We found that arid biomes respond to drought at short time-scales; that is, there is a rapid vegetation reaction as soon as water deficits below normal conditions occur. This may be due to the fact that plant species of arid regions have mechanisms allowing them to rapidly adapt to changing water availability. Humid biomes also respond to drought at short time-scales, but in this case the physiological mechanisms likely differ from those operating in arid biomes, as plants usually have a poor adaptability to water shortage. On the contrary, semiarid and subhumid biomes respond to drought at long time-scales, probably because plants are able to withstand water deficits, but they lack the rapid response of arid biomes to drought. These results are consistent among three vegetation parameters analyzed and across different land biomes, showing that the response of vegetation to drought depends on characteristic drought time-scales for each biome. Understanding the dominant time-scales at which drought most influences vegetation might help assessing the resistance and resilience of vegetation and improving our knowledge of vegetation vulnerability to climate change.

Performance of Drought Indices for Ecological, Agricultural, and Hydrological Applications

AbstractIn this study, the authors provide a global assessment of the performance of different drought indices for monitoring drought impacts on several hydrological, agricultural, and ecological response variables. For this purpose, they compare the performance of several drought indices [the standardized precipitation index (SPI); four versions of the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI); and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI)] to predict changes in streamflow, soil moisture, forest growth, and crop yield. The authors found a superior capability of the SPEI and the SPI drought indices, which are calculated on different time scales than the Palmer indices to capture the drought impacts on the aforementioned hydrological, agricultural, and ecological variables. They detected small differences in the comparative performance of the SPI and the SPEI indices, but the SPEI was the drought index that best captured the responses of the assessed variables to drought in summer, the seas...

Evidence of increasing drought severity caused by temperature rise in southern Europe

We use high quality climate data from ground meteorological stations in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) and robust drought indices to confirm that drought severity has increased in the past five decades, as a consequence of greater atmospheric evaporative demand resulting from temperature rise. Increased drought severity is independent of the model used to quantify the reference evapotranspiration. We have also focused on drought impacts to drought-sensitive systems, such as river discharge, by analyzing streamflow data for 287 rivers in the IP, and found that hydrological drought frequency and severity have also increased in the past five decades in natural, regulated and highly regulated basins. Recent positive trend in the atmospheric water demand has had a direct influence on the temporal evolution of streamflows, clearly identified during the warm season, in which higher evapotranspiration rates are recorded. This pattern of increase in evaporative demand and greater drought severity is probably applicable to other semiarid regions of the world, including other Mediterranean areas, the Sahel, southern Australia and South Africa, and can be expected to increasingly compromise water supplies and cause political, social and economic tensions among regions in the near future.

Accurate Computation of a Streamflow Drought Index

In this study, the authors investigated an approach to calculate the standardized streamflow index (SSI), which allows accurate spatial and temporal comparison of the hydrological conditions of a stream or set of streams. For this purpose, the capability of six three-parameter distributions (lognormal, Pearson Type III, log-logistic, general extreme value, generalized Pareto, and Weibull) and two different approaches to select the most suitable distribution the best monthly fit (BMF) and the minimum orthogonal distance (MD), were tested by using a monthly streamflow data set for the Ebro Basin (Spain). This large Mediterranean basin is characterized by high variability in the magnitude of streamflows and in seasonal regimes. The results show that the most commonly used probability distributions for flow frequency analysis provided good fits to the streamflow series. Thus, the visual inspection of the L-moment diagrams and the results of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test did not enable the selection of a single ...

The Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Renewable Energy Resources in Southwestern Europe

AbstractEurope is investing considerably in renewable energies for a sustainable future, with both Iberian countries (Portugal and Spain) promoting significantly new hydropower, wind, and solar plants. The climate variability in this area is highly controlled by just a few large-scale teleconnection modes. However, the relationship between these modes and the renewable climate-dependent energy resources has not yet been established in detail. The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the interannual variability of the main and primary renewable energy resources in Iberia. This is achieved through a holistic assessment that is based on a 10-km-resolution climate simulation spanning the period 1959–2007 that provides physically consistent data of the various magnitudes involved. A monthly analysis for the extended winter (October–March) months shows that negative NAO phases enhance wind speeds (10%–15%) and, thereby, wind power (estimated around 30% at ...

Temporal evolution of surface humidity in Spain: recent trends and possible physical mechanisms

We analyzed the evolution of surface relative humidity (RH) and specific humidity (q) in Spain, based on complete records available from the State Meteorological Agency of Spain. The surface RH records used span the period 1920–2011, but because of spatial and temporal constraints in the dataset we used a subset of the data, covering the period 1961–2011. The subset contained 50 monthly series of RH, which were created through a process of quality control, reconstruction and homogenization. The data shows that there was a large decrease in RH over mainland Spain from 1961 to 2011, which was greatest in spring and summer. In contrast, there was no overall change in the specific humidity in this period, except in spring, when an increase was observed. The decrease in RH affected the entire country, but the changes in specific humidity were less homogeneous. For specific humidity there was a general increase in the northern and eastern parts of Spain, whereas negative trends dominated in the central and southern areas, mainly during the summer months. The results suggest that an increase in the water holding capacity of the atmosphere as a consequence of warming during recent decades has not been accompanied by an increase in the surface water vapor content, probably because the supply of water vapor from the main terrestrial and oceanic areas has been constrained. We discuss the implications of these findings for evapotranspiration processes, precipitation and water management in Spain.

The NAO Impact on Droughts in the Mediterranean Region

This chapter shows the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on droughts in the entire Mediterranean region between 1901 and 2006. The analysis has been based on identification of positive and negative NAO winters and also detection of the anomalies of drought severity by means of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The analysis is focussed on the winter NAO. Nevertheless, given that the SPEI drought indicator can be obtained at different time-scales, the study shows how the effects of the winter NAO on droughts are propagated for the following months when long time scales are considered. In general, during the positive phases, the negative SPEI averages are recorded in Southern Europe (the Iberian Peninsula, Italy and the Balkans), areas of Turkey and northwest Africa. On the contrary, the SPEI averages are found positive in northeast Africa. The opposite configuration, but with some differences in the spatial patterns and the magnitude of the SPEI averages, is found during the negative NAO years. The findings of this study should be of great applicability in terms of developing early warning systems. The established relationships between NAO phases and drought indices seem appropriate for drought prediction over large areas of the Mediterranean basin.

Reservoir Management in the Duero Basin (Spain): Impact on River Regimes and the Response to Environmental Change

The climatic conditions of the Iberian Peninsula result in an imbalance between water availability and demand, which is largely managed through the many dams that were built during the 20th century. However, dam operations modify the natural functioning of rivers and related subsystems. In this study we investigated the effect of reservoirs on river regimes in the Duero basin, which is one of the largest river basins in Spain. This involved calculation of a modified impoundment ratio index, and assessment of the correlations between monthly inflows and outflows. Water resources in the basin have decreased markedly during the last five decades, so we also studied how patterns of management have adapted to less water availability in the region. A significant correlation was found between the level of impoundment and the alteration of river regimes by dams. The degree of regulation was highly dependent on annual inflows into the reservoir, and consequently alterations to river regimes were more intense during dry years. The basic pattern of flow regulation involved the storage of water during winter and spring in preparation for high water demand in summer, when natural flows are low. A combination of trend and cluster analyses revealed three responses of reservoir managers to decreasing inflows during the study period: (i) for several reservoirs the level of storage was reduced; (ii) for many reservoirs, particularly those for hydropower production, the storages were increased; and (iii) for the remainder the storage levels were maintained by adjusting the outflows to the decreasing inflows. The results suggest the absence of a common approach to reservoir management, and the dominance of other interests over environmental concerns, particularly in the context of hydrological change in the basin.

The contrasted evolution of high and low flows and precipitation indices in the Duero basin (Spain)

Abstract Trends in high and low flows are valuable indicators of hydrological change because they highlight changes in various parts of the frequency distribution of streamflow series. This enables improved assessment of water availability in regions with high seasonal and inter-annual variability. There has been a substantial reduction in water resources in the Duero basin (Iberian Peninsula, Spain) and other areas of the Mediterranean region during the last 50 years, and this is likely to continue because of climate change. In this study, we investigated the evolution and trends in high and low flows in the Spanish part of the Duero basin, and in equivalent or closely-related precipitation indices for the period 1961–2005. The results showed a general trend of decrease in the frequency and magnitude of high flows throughout most of the basin. Moreover, the number of days with low flows significantly increased over this period. No clear relationship was evident between the evolution of high/low flows and changes in the distribution frequencies of the precipitation series. In contrast to what was expected, the number of days with heavy precipitation and the mean annual precipitation did not show significant trends across the basin, and the number of days without rainfall decreased slightly. The divergence between precipitation and runoff evolution was more accentuated in spring and summer. In the absence of trends in precipitation, it is possible that reforestation processes in the region, and increasing temperatures in recent decades, could be related to the decreasing frequency of high flows and the increasing frequency of low flows. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor S. Grimaldi Citation Morán-Tejeda, E., López-Moreno, J.I., Vicente-Serrano, S.M., Lorenzo-Lacruz, J. and Ceballos-Barbancho, A., 2012. The contrasted evolution of high and low flows and precipitation indices in the Duero basin (Spain). Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (4), 591–611.

Influence of Winter North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAO) on Climate and Snow Accumulation in the Mediterranean Mountains

This work analyses the influence of NAO on the interannual evolution of winter temperature, precipitation and snowpack in the Mediterranean mountains. Due to lack of snow data in many mountain areas, the occurrence of four different winter modes are used as a proxy of the amount of accumulated snow. Winter modes are defined on the basis of combined precipitation and temperature thresholds: warm and wet (WW), warm and dry (WD), cold and wet (CW), and cold and dry (CD). The study focuses on 15 relevant mountain areas located in the Mediterranean Europe, Morocco, Turkey and Lebanon. Moreover, we present the relationship between winter NAO and snow depth data in the Swiss Alps and the Spanish Pyrenees. It has been demonstrated that snowpack accumulation in a given year is closely related to the occurrence of these winter modes. However, such relationship is variable among mountain areas and also there are differences depending on elevation in a particular mountain range. Results show that occurrence of different winter modes is strongly related to the winter NAO for the majority of the mountain chains under study, although these relationships are weaker in the easternmost part of the Mediterranean basin. Moreover, it has also been proven that the snow cover response to winter NAO may differ spatially as a consequence of the different influence of winter NAO on precipitation and temperature. In Switzerland, NAO is correlated more with temperature than with precipitation. Therefore, the influence of NAO on snow is significant at the lowest elevation areas, where temperature is the main control on snowpack accumulation. On the other hand, over the Spanish Pyrenees the NAO mainly controls the interannual variability of precipitation. In this region, the highest correlation with snow is found at high elevations where the interannual variability of temperature does not significantly influences snowpack, whereas precipitation controls mainly the accumulation of snow.