S. M. Vicente-Serrano

Impact of climate and land use change on water availability and reservoir management: Scenarios in the Upper Aragón River, Spanish Pyrenees

Streamflows in a Mediterranean mountain basin in the central Spanish Pyrenees were projected under various climate and land use change scenarios. Streamflow series projected for 2021-2050 were used to simulate the management of the Yesa reservoir, which is critical to the downstream supply of irrigation and domestic water. Streamflows were simulated using the Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System (RHESSys). The results show that increased forest cover in the basin could decrease annual streamflow by 16%, mainly in early spring, summer and autumn. Regional climate models (RCMs) project a trend of warming and drying in the basin for the period 2021-2050, which will cause a 13.8% decrease in annual streamflow, mainly in late spring and summer. The combined effects of forest regeneration and climate change are expected to reduce annual streamflows by 29.6%, with marked decreases affecting all months with the exception of January and February, when the decline will be moderate. Under these streamflow reduction scenarios it is expected that it will be difficult for the Yesa reservoir to meet the current water demand, based on its current storage capacity (476 hm(3)). If the current project to enlarge the reservoir to a capacity of 1059 hm(3) is completed, the potential to apply multi-annual streamflow management, which will increase the feasibility of maintaining the current water supply. However, under future climate and land cover scenarios, reservoir storage will rarely exceed half of the expected capacity, and the river flows downstream of the reservoir is projected to be dramatically reduced.

Mapping the annual evolution of snow depth in a small catchment in the Pyrenees using the long-range terrestrial laser scanning

This paper presents the methodology used to develop snow depth distribution maps for a small catchment in the Central Spanish Pyrenees covering 55 ha in a 1:10,000 scale. The Main Map was obtained using LiDAR (light detection and ranging) technology from a long-range Terrestrial Laser Scanner (TLS) in six field surveys undertaken during the 2012 winter–spring period. This technique enabled the acquisition of information at a very high resolution concerning the spatial variability of snow cover, providing snow depth information for remote areas where data acquisition is complex and hazardous. We describe the methodological steps and the quality assessment applied in developing the maps. Comparison with manual measurements confirmed the reliability of the snow depth maps, including areas located at large distances from the scanner (800 m). This method provides a promising tool for future investigations of snow dynamics in mountainous environments.

Canopy influence on snow depth distribution in a pine stand determined from terrestrial laser data

In this study, we analyzed the effects of the forest canopy and trunks of a pine stand in the central Spanish Pyrenees on the snow depth (SD) distribution. Using LiDAR technology with a terrestrial laser scanner (TLS), high-resolution data on the SD distribution were acquired during the 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 snow seasons, which were 2 years having very contrasting climatic and snow accumulation conditions. Average SD evolution in open and canopy areas was characterized. Principal component analysis was applied to identify days having similar spatial patterns of SD distribution. There was a clear contrast in the temporal variability of the snowpack in different areas of the forest stand, corresponding generally to beneath the canopy, and in open sites. The canopy and openings showed markedly different accumulation and melting, with higher snow accumulation found in openings. Differences ranged from 14 to 80% reduction (average 49%) in the SD beneath the canopy relative to open sites. The difference in SD between open and canopy areas increased throughout the snow season. The surveyed days were classified in terms of SD distribution, and included days associated with: high SD, low SD, intense melting conditions and periods when the SD distribution was driven by wind conditions. The SD increased with distance from the trunks to a distance of 3.5-4.5 m, coinciding with the average size of the crown of individual trees.

Hydrological and depositional processes associated with recent glacier recession in Yanamarey catchment, Cordillera Blanca (Peru)

In this study, we investigate changes in the glaciated surface and the formation of lakes in the headwater of the Querococha watershed in Cordillera Blanca (Peru) using 24 Landsat images from 1975 to 2014. Information of glacier retreat was integrated with available climate data, the first survey of recent depositional dynamics in proglacial Yanamarey Lake (4600m a.s.l.), and a relatively short hydrological record (2002-2014) at the outlet of Yanamarey Lake. A statistically significant temperature warming (0.21°C decade-1 for mean annual temperature) has been detected in the region, and it caused a reduction of the glacierized area since 1975 from 3.5 to 1.4km-2. New small lakes formed in the deglaciated areas, increasing the flooded area from1.8ha in 1976 to 2.8ha in 2014. A positive correlation between annual rates of glacier recession and runoff was found. Sediment cores revealed a high sedimentation rate (>1cmyr-1) and two contrasted facies, suggesting a shift toward a reduction of meltwater inputs and higher hydrological variability likely due to an increasing role of precipitation on runoff during the last decades. Despite the age control uncertainties, the main transition likely occurred around 1998-2000, correlating with the end of the phase with maximum warming rates and glacier retreat during the 1980s and 1990s, and the slowing down of expansion of surface lake-covered surface. With this hydrological - paleolimnological approach we have documented the association between recent climate variability and glacier recession and the rapid transfer of hydroclimate signal to depositional and geochemical processes in high elevation Andean environments. This, study also alerts about water quality risks as proglacial lakes act as secondary reservoirs that trap trace and minor elements in high altitude basins.

High Resolution HIRLAM Simulations of the Role of Low-Level Sea-Breeze Convergence in Initiating Deep Moist Convection in the Eastern Iberian Peninsula

We present a numerical investigation of a non-forecast sea-breeze-initiated thunderstorm that occurred unexpectedly in the eastern complex area of the Iberian Peninsula (Spain) on 7 August 2008. A high horizontal (2.5-km grid spacing) and vertical (60 sigma levels) resolution set-up of the hydrostatic HIRLAM model is used to simulate the evolution of isolated convection associated with sea breezes. The convective inhibition, convective available potential energy, vertical velocity, wind and precipitation fields are examined here in order to analyze the role of low-level sea-breeze convergence and sea-breeze front development in initiating intense convective activity (heavy rainfall, hail and gusty winds) under weakly defined synoptic disturbances. We observe that convective inhibition layers are eroded by sea-breeze frontal zones, increasing the convective available potential energy due to the enhanced vertical motion, forcing parcels to lift to the level of free convection. We show that the location of thunderstorms along the east coast of the Iberian Peninsula is partly controlled by the impact of sea-breeze fronts on modulating the diurnal spatio-temporal evolution of convective inhibition, convective available potential energy and updrafts.