Jörn Birkmann

Vulnerability assessment in natural hazard and risk analysis: current approaches and future challenges

Negative consequences of natural hazards are the result of both the frequency and intensity of the hazard and the vulnerability of the society or element at risk exposed. Therefore, vulnerability assessment is an essential step to reduce these consequences and consequently natural hazard risk. The assessment of vulnerability requires an ability to both identify and understand the susceptibility of elements at risk and—in a broader sense—of the society to these hazards. The concept of vulnerability is used today by various disciplines, and hence, it is embedded in multiple disciplinary theories underpinning either a technical or a social origin of the concept and resulting in a range of paradigms for either a qualitative or quantitative assessment of vulnerability. However, efforts to reduce the exposure to hazards and to create disaster-resilient communities require intersections among these theories (e.g. Hufschmidt and Glade 2010), since human activity cannot be seen independently from the environmental settings and vice versa. Acknowledging different roots of disciplinary paradigms, methods determining structural, economic, institutional or social vulnerability should be inter-woven in order to enhance our understanding of vulnerability and to adopt to ongoing global change processes. Current approaches in vulnerability research are driven by a divide between social scientists and natural scientists, even if recently some attempts have been made within to

Emergency Preparedness in the Case of a Tsunami—Evacuation Analysis and Traffic Optimization for the Indonesian City of Padang

The “Last-Mile Evacuation” research project develops a numerical last mile tsunami early warning and evacuation information system on the basis of detailed earth observation data and techniques as well as unsteady, hydraulic numerical modeling of small-scale flooding and inundation dynamics of the tsunami including evacuation simulations in the urban coastal hinterland for the city of Padang, West Sumatra, Indonesia. It is well documented that Sumatra’s third largest city with almost one million inhabitants is located directly on the coast and partially sited beneath the sea level, and thus, is located in a zone of extreme risk due to severe earthquakes and potential triggered tsunamis. “Last-Mile” takes the inundation dynamics into account and additionally assesses the physical-technical susceptibility and the socio-economic vulnerability of the population with the objective to mitigate human and material losses due to possible tsunamis. By means of discrete multi-agent techniques risk-based, time- and site-dependent forecasts of the evacuation behavior of the population and the flow of traffic in large parts of the road system in the urban coastal strip are simulated and concurrently linked with the other components.

Approaches for tsunami risk assessment and application to the city of Cádiz, Spain

Tsunamis can represent a significant risk to the population and cause huge economic damage in many costal regions. In order to be able to identify risk hot spots and implement targeted risk reduction measures, decision makers need to have a clear picture of the risk situation in their countries or regions. This work reviews existing approaches for tsunami risk assessment and recommends a five-step process for assessing tsunami risk. As a case study, a qualitative risk assessment for a worst-case tsunami scenario was carried out to understand the tsunami risk to the population in Cádiz. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis of the tsunami hazard input parameters was performed as a strong influence of the variability of the input parameters on the resultant tsunami hazard and risk zonation maps was observed. The study shows that regardless of the assumptions made a non-negligible tsunami risk to Cádiz exists.

Vulnerability, Coping and Adaptation to Water Related Hazards in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta

This chapter deals with the conceptualization, identification and assessment of the vulnerability of different social groups to water related hazards in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta. The Mekong Delta is globally seen as one of the key hotspots of climate change related risks due to its exposure to floods, salinization and potential sea level rise. In order to underline the multifaceted nature of vulnerability to natural hazards and climate change the paper outlines vulnerability profiles of different households and socio-economic groups in selected hazard prone areas, notably in rural communities exposed to high floods, coastal communities exposed to saline intrusion and urban communities exposed to urban and tidal flooding. The different locations selected for the assessment of vulnerability allow comparing how different local context situations and hazard phenomena might influence specific coping and adaptation strategies. The socio-economic transformation processes and policy reforms that have affected all three locations are examined in terms of their influence on vulnerability and capacities. The chapter provides a contribution to a further enhancement of methods, data bases and quality criteria for moving from an impact oriented risk assessment to a forward-looking vulnerability assessment that can inform future adaptation strategies. In this regard the chapter makes a contribution for linking disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA) discourses. Particularly, the analysis of vulnerabilities to creeping-changes has often not been sufficiently addresses and incorporated in DRR strategies in Vietnam.

Globaler Umweltwandel, Naturgefahren, Vulnerabilität und Katastrophenresilienz

KurzfassungDer Klimawandel und die Zunahme von Extremwetterereignissen (Hochwasser, Stürme etc.) sind Anzeichen des globalen Umweltwandels, der neue Herausforderungen an die Raumplanung stellt. Der Beitrag prüft, wie Raumplanung — insbesondere die Regionalplanung — bisher Naturgefahren und Vulnerabilität betrachtet. Dabei wird am Beispiel des vorbeugenden Hochwasserschutzes verdeutlicht, dass bisher fast ausschließlich der Aspekt der Naturgefahr fokussiert wird, z.B. das 100-jährliche Hochwasser (HQ 100). Dies erweist sich als problematisch, da sich angesichts des Klimawandels die bisher bekannten Häufigkeiten und Intensitäten z.B. von Hochwasser erheblich verändern. Folglich besteht die Notwendigkeit, die Frage der Vulnerabilität von Gesellschaft und Raumnutzungen stärker aufzugreifen. Hierzu werden wesentliche Grundlagen und Begriffe thematisiert. Es wird verdeutlicht, wie das Konzept der Vulnerabilität für zentrale Dimensionen (u. a. soziale, Umwelt- und ökonomische Dimension) konkretisiert und für die Raumplanung fassbar gemacht werden kann.AbstractClimate change and the increase of extreme weather events (floods, storms etc.) are signals of global environmental change, which implies new challenges for spatial planning. The paper examines how spatial planning and particularly regional planning focuses on natural hazards and vulnerability. Based on the example of flooding and preventive flood protection it shows that the current focus in planning lies mainly on the hazard rather than on the vulnerability. This is problematic due to the fact that climate change implies changes within the frequency and intensity of flood events. Thus the static focus on a 100 years flood event is misleading. Therefore it is essential to shift the focus and to take into account the vulnerability of society and that of different land uses. The paper discusses fundamentals and key terms. It shows how the concept of vulnerability can be made more concrete for spatial planning.

Integrating remote sensing and social science

The alignment, small-scale transitions and characteristics of buildings, streets and open spaces constitute a heterogeneous urban morphology. The urban morphology is the physical reflection of a society that created it, influenced by historical, social, cultural, economic, political, demographic and natural conditions as well as their developments. Within the complex urban environment homogeneous physical patterns and sectors of similar building types, structural alignments or similar built-up densities can be localized and classified. Accordingly, it is assumed that urban societies also feature a distinctive socio-economic urban morphology that is strongly correlated with the characteristics of a citys physical morphology: Social groups settle spatially with ones peer more or less segregated from other social groups according to, amongst other things, their economic status. This study focuses on the analysis, whether the static physical urban morphology correlates with socioeconomic parameters of its inhabitants here with the example indicators income and value of property. Therefore, the study explores on the capabilities of high resolution optical satellite data (Ikonos) to classify patterns of urban morphology based on physical parameters. In addition a household questionnaire was developed to investigate on the cities socioeconomic morphology.

Derivation of population distribution for vulnerability assessment in flood-prone German cities using multisensoral remote sensing data

Against the background of massive urban development, area-wide and up-to-date spatial information is in demand. However, for many reasons this detailed information on the entire urban area is often not available or just not valid anymore. In the event of a natural hazard - e.g. a river flood - it is a crucial piece of information for relief units to have knowledge about the quantity and the distribution of the affected population. In this paper we demonstrate the abilities of remotely sensed data towards vulnerability assessment or disaster management in case of such an event. By means of very high resolution optical satellite imagery and surface information derived by airborne laser scanning, we generate a precise, three-dimensional representation of the landcover and the urban morphology. An automatic, object-oriented approach detects single buildings and derives morphological information - e.g. building size, height and shape - for a further classification of each building into various building types. Subsequently, a top-down approach is applied to distribute the total population of the city or the district on each individual building. In combination with information of potentially affected areas, the methodology is applied on two German cities to estimate potentially affected population with a high level of accuracy.

Klimawandel und Regionalplanung

KurzfassungDer ARL-Arbeitskreis „Klimawandel und Raumplanung” führte eine schriftliche Umfrage unter den Regionalplanungsstellen in Deutschland zum bisherigen Stand der Beschäftigung mit dem Thema Klimawandel durch. Gefragt wurde nach der Verfügbarkeit und dem Verbesserungsbedarf von Grundlageninformationen, den Möglichkeiten und Erfahrungen räumlicher Planung im Bereich Klimaschutz, den bisherigen Ansätzen sowie erwarteten Herausforderungen zur Anpassung an den Klimawandel und den erwarteten Auswirkungen auf den Planungsalltag. Die Umfrage zeigte auf, dass der Klimawandel von den befragten Regionalplanern bislang v.a. mit den Aspekten des Klimaschutzes in Zusammenhang gebracht wird, während zur Anpassung an den Klimawandel noch kaum Erfahrungen vorliegen und die Rolle der räumlichen Planung zum Umgang mit Klimawandelfolgen bislang kaum definiert ist.AbstractThe ARL working group “Climate Change and Spatial Planning” conducted a survey among German regional planning authorities on how they currently treat the issue of climate change in their activities. The survey covered the availability of information on climate change, current possibilities and experiences in the field of mitigation, future challenges regarding adaptation to climate change and subsequent consequences for planning procedures. The results of the survey show that at present, regional planners mostly treat mitigation issues when considering climate change. Few experiences have been made regarding adaptation to climate change. The role of spatial planning in the context of climate change has not been defined clearly so far.

Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction: Fundamentals, Synergies and Mismatches

The IPCC special report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (see IPCC, A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2012a, p. 582) underscores the importance of linking disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. However, in reality, practical approaches in adaptation and risk reduction have primarily been developed in isolation, rather than as a part of a parallel and intertwined process. This chapter examines the options and concepts that allow for the strengthening of the link between Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR). In addition, barriers and mismatches between the two communities will be addressed. The chapter also discusses how limited cooperation between different institutions and ministries has hampered effective synergies between CCA and DRR in praxis. Finally, the chapter outlines recommendations and measures that need to be adopted in order to overcome existing barriers. In this regard criteria are formulated that should be applied in order to constantly monitor and evaluate adaptation strategies designed to simultaneously meet disaster risk reduction requirements.

Preparing for Low-Frequency, Extreme Natural Hazards: Contributing to Human Security by Enhancing ‘Freedom from Hazard Impact’

In contrast to daily risks, low-frequency but extreme natural hazard events are often seen as the lowest priority risk (Cannon 2006). However, the fact of increasing extreme natural events in the light of global environmental and climate change (IPCC 2007) implies that there is an emerging necessity to get prepared for hitherto low-frequency, but extreme hazard events. The occurrence of mega-disasters such as the Indian Ocean Tsunami in 2004 and Hurricane Katrina in 2005 demonstrated the horrifying impacts of such extreme hazard events on the people exposed causing a tremendous threat to human security. High death tolls with large numbers of Internally Displaced People (IDP) and the destruction of critical infrastructures causing social disruptions and long term development retardation are the consequences. On the other hand, it has opened a window of opportunity to promote preparedness even in regions which have not experienced extreme hazard events in the last decades. Enhancing human security by promoting preparedness and resilience of societies confronted with natural hazards is an important step forward meeting the challenge of “freedom from hazard impact” as one of the three dimensions of human security (Brauch 2005: 23; 2005a). In contrast to frequent hazards and risks that people face and might experience daily, getting prepared for low-frequency, extreme hazard events is a major challenge (18.3). The chapter examines these challenges and outlines new approaches on how natural hazards and global environmental change can be assessed with concepts of human security. In this regard, a key concept is vulnerability (18.2). The chapter presents a case study assessing community preparedness to tsunami, which shows that even communities which have not experienced any major tsunami event for decades are getting prepared (18.4). The preparedness assessment takes into consideration: knowledge and attitude (awareness), policy and guidelines, emergency planning, warning system and capacity mobilizing resources. The results underline that individuals and households already have a good knowledge of the tsunami, whereas the actions and coping capacity in terms of emergency planning and resource mobilization are still insufficient. Important preparedness activities were carried out initially by NGOs and later on also by the local government. Overall, the chapter shows the difficulties of raising awareness and getting prepared for low-frequency, but extreme hazard events and shows, drawing on the example of the city of Padang in Sumatra, where these activities are currently being carried out. The assessment approach also provides insights for measuring preparedness even in regions which have not experienced a major hazard event for decades (18.5).