Neysa J. Setiadi

Scenarios for vulnerability: opportunities and constraints in the context of climate change and disaster risk

Most scientific assessments for climate change adaptation and risk reduction are based on scenarios for climatic change. Scenarios for socio-economic development, particularly in terms of vulnerability and adaptive capacity, are largely lacking. This paper focuses on the utility of socio-economic scenarios for vulnerability, risk and adaptation research. The paper introduces the goals and functions of scenarios in general and reflects on the current global debate around shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). It examines the options and constraints of scenario methods for risk and vulnerability assessments in the context of climate change and natural hazards. Two case studies are used to contrast the opportunities and current constraints in scenario methods at different scales: the global WorldRiskIndex, based on quantitative data and indicators; and a local participatory scenario development process in Jakarta, showing a qualitative approach. The juxtaposition of a quantitative approach with global data and a qualitative-participatory local approach provides new insights on how different methods and scenario techniques can be applied in vulnerability and risk research.

Emergency Preparedness in the Case of a Tsunami—Evacuation Analysis and Traffic Optimization for the Indonesian City of Padang

The “Last-Mile Evacuation” research project develops a numerical last mile tsunami early warning and evacuation information system on the basis of detailed earth observation data and techniques as well as unsteady, hydraulic numerical modeling of small-scale flooding and inundation dynamics of the tsunami including evacuation simulations in the urban coastal hinterland for the city of Padang, West Sumatra, Indonesia. It is well documented that Sumatra’s third largest city with almost one million inhabitants is located directly on the coast and partially sited beneath the sea level, and thus, is located in a zone of extreme risk due to severe earthquakes and potential triggered tsunamis. “Last-Mile” takes the inundation dynamics into account and additionally assesses the physical-technical susceptibility and the socio-economic vulnerability of the population with the objective to mitigate human and material losses due to possible tsunamis. By means of discrete multi-agent techniques risk-based, time- and site-dependent forecasts of the evacuation behavior of the population and the flow of traffic in large parts of the road system in the urban coastal strip are simulated and concurrently linked with the other components.

Risk reduction at the “ Last - Mile ”: an attempt to turn science into action by the example of Padang, Indonesia

More than ever before, the last decade revealed the immense vulnerability of the world’s cities to natural hazards. Neither the tsunami in the Indian Ocean in 2004, the hurricane Katrina in 2005, the cyclone Nargis in 2008 nor the earthquakes in Sichuan in 2008 or in Haiti 2010 found the people, the city administrations or the national or international organizations well prepared in the advent of anticipated but to a large extent disregarded natural disasters. It is evident that the lack of tailor-made disaster management plans and standard operational procedures are often the crucial point in proper risk reduction approaches. This study presents an approach to transfer knowledge of an extensive multidisciplinary scientific study on risk identification into recommendations for risk reduction strategies. The study has been conducted by means of a combination of experts from different scientific communities coming from civil and coastal engineering, remote sensing, social sciences, evacuation modelling and capacity development. The paper presents the results of this research approach and interweaves key findings with recent experiences from an eyewitness on a previous hazard event. Thus, necessary tsunami hazard and vulnerability information as well as valuable insights into preparedness activities have been derived for initiating updated infrastructural designs and practical recommendations for emergency management as well as strategic spatial planning activities at the local scale. The approach was applied in the context of tsunami early warning and evacuation planning in the coastal city of Padang, Western Sumatra, Republic of Indonesia.

Integrating remote sensing and social science

The alignment, small-scale transitions and characteristics of buildings, streets and open spaces constitute a heterogeneous urban morphology. The urban morphology is the physical reflection of a society that created it, influenced by historical, social, cultural, economic, political, demographic and natural conditions as well as their developments. Within the complex urban environment homogeneous physical patterns and sectors of similar building types, structural alignments or similar built-up densities can be localized and classified. Accordingly, it is assumed that urban societies also feature a distinctive socio-economic urban morphology that is strongly correlated with the characteristics of a citys physical morphology: Social groups settle spatially with ones peer more or less segregated from other social groups according to, amongst other things, their economic status. This study focuses on the analysis, whether the static physical urban morphology correlates with socioeconomic parameters of its inhabitants here with the example indicators income and value of property. Therefore, the study explores on the capabilities of high resolution optical satellite data (Ikonos) to classify patterns of urban morphology based on physical parameters. In addition a household questionnaire was developed to investigate on the cities socioeconomic morphology.

Preparing for Low-Frequency, Extreme Natural Hazards: Contributing to Human Security by Enhancing ‘Freedom from Hazard Impact’

In contrast to daily risks, low-frequency but extreme natural hazard events are often seen as the lowest priority risk (Cannon 2006). However, the fact of increasing extreme natural events in the light of global environmental and climate change (IPCC 2007) implies that there is an emerging necessity to get prepared for hitherto low-frequency, but extreme hazard events. The occurrence of mega-disasters such as the Indian Ocean Tsunami in 2004 and Hurricane Katrina in 2005 demonstrated the horrifying impacts of such extreme hazard events on the people exposed causing a tremendous threat to human security. High death tolls with large numbers of Internally Displaced People (IDP) and the destruction of critical infrastructures causing social disruptions and long term development retardation are the consequences. On the other hand, it has opened a window of opportunity to promote preparedness even in regions which have not experienced extreme hazard events in the last decades. Enhancing human security by promoting preparedness and resilience of societies confronted with natural hazards is an important step forward meeting the challenge of “freedom from hazard impact” as one of the three dimensions of human security (Brauch 2005: 23; 2005a). In contrast to frequent hazards and risks that people face and might experience daily, getting prepared for low-frequency, extreme hazard events is a major challenge (18.3). The chapter examines these challenges and outlines new approaches on how natural hazards and global environmental change can be assessed with concepts of human security. In this regard, a key concept is vulnerability (18.2). The chapter presents a case study assessing community preparedness to tsunami, which shows that even communities which have not experienced any major tsunami event for decades are getting prepared (18.4). The preparedness assessment takes into consideration: knowledge and attitude (awareness), policy and guidelines, emergency planning, warning system and capacity mobilizing resources. The results underline that individuals and households already have a good knowledge of the tsunami, whereas the actions and coping capacity in terms of emergency planning and resource mobilization are still insufficient. Important preparedness activities were carried out initially by NGOs and later on also by the local government. Overall, the chapter shows the difficulties of raising awareness and getting prepared for low-frequency, but extreme hazard events and shows, drawing on the example of the city of Padang in Sumatra, where these activities are currently being carried out. The assessment approach also provides insights for measuring preparedness even in regions which have not experienced a major hazard event for decades (18.5).

Culture and Community Resilience to Flooding: Case Study of the Urban Coastal Community in Jakarta

There is increasing recognition of the role of culture in influencing community resilience. When acknowledged as cultural aspects, behaviors, beliefs and social structure could shape risk perception and risk behavior. In the context of Indonesia, research on culture has been mainly explored within the context of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, and rarely in the case of floods in coastal areas. This study aims to explore distinctive elements of culture that shape community resilience progressions from coping, self-organizing, recovering and learning to adapt to flood hazards.

Understanding Challenges at the “Last-Mile” in Developing an Effective Risk Communication to Reduce People’s Vulnerability in Context of Tsunami Early Warning and Evacuation

The paper presents a framework for assessing vulnerability in the context of tsunami early warning and evacuation at the local level. A case study in the city of Padang, Indonesia was given as a showcase on analysis of the vulnerability component of understanding and response to the early warning. Quantitative and qualitative analysis of household surveys as well as various semi-structured and non-structured interviews derive important parameters that should be considered in development an effective risk communication.

The Last-Mile Evacuation Project: A Multi-disciplinary Approach to Evacuation Planning and Risk Reduction in Tsunami-Threatened Coastal Areas

In view of recent tragic and disastrous tsunami events such as the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 or the Tohoku-Oki tsunami in 2011 it is still indispensable to aim at deepening our insight into the mechanisms which turn natural disasters into life-changing events for those individuals living at regions at risk. In this context risk mitigation on the basis of well-implemented early warning systems is inevitable to reduce human losses and to pave the way for specific measures on disaster recovery. A possible work chain to assess this complex objective is exemplified by the interdisciplinary “Last-Mile Evacuation project” which focused on the city of Padang, Indonesia. This city is one of the cities worldwide most imperiled by tsunamis since it is located in the direct neighborhood to the Sunda arc with an average warning time below 30 min. The work chain presented in the present paper comprises the generation and compilation of the underlying geo data basis, the simulation of hydrodynamics, the assessment of physical vulnerability using remote sensing data and techniques, the assessment of social vulnerability related with people’s exposure, risk perception, and evacuation behavior, and the modeling of potential evacuation routes. While the main focus of the original project was on city-wide risk assessment, the focal point of this study is a close-up view of the micro-scale dynamics of inundation and evacuation on urban district level. The existing situation and urban setting is subsequently compared with alternative shelter options. Additionally, qualitative information on social aspects to be considered in developing appropriate mitigation options is outlined. It is anticipated to communicate best-practice knowledge on how to approach the assessment of tsunami hazard with potential overlapping areas to other natural disasters.

Last-Mile preparation for a potential disaster

Extreme natural events, like e.g. tsunamis or earthquakes, regularly lead to catastrophes with dramatic consequences. In recent years natural disasters caused hundreds of thousands of deaths, destruction of infrastructure, disruption of economic activity and loss of billions of dollars worth of property and thus revealed considerable deficits hindering their effective management: Needs for stakeholders, decision-makers as well as for persons concerned include systematic risk identification and evaluation, a way to assess countermeasures, awareness raising and decision support systems to be employed before, during and after crisis situations. The overall goal of this study focuses on interdisciplinary integration of various scientific disciplines to contribute to a tsunami early warning information system. In comparison to most studies our focus is on high-end geometric and thematic analysis to meet the requirements of small-scale, heterogeneous and complex coastal urban systems. Data, methods and results from engineering, remote sensing and social sciences are interlinked and provide comprehensive information for disaster risk assessment, management and reduction. In detail, we combine inundation modeling, urban morphology analysis, population assessment, socio-economic analysis of the population and evacuation modeling. The interdisciplinary results eventually lead to recommendations for mitigation strategies in the fields of spatial planning or coping capacity.