Jose Anson

Financial Inclusion and the Role of the Post Office

With a widespread presence in rural and poor areas, post offices can play a leading role in advancing financial inclusion. Yet little is known about the types of clients that post offices reach through their financial service offerings and how they might differ from those of traditional financial institutions (such as commercial banks). The Global Findex database can be used to help understand the characteristics of clients who bank at post offices worldwide and develop a deeper and more nuanced understanding of how post offices can increase financial inclusion.

The International Postal Network and Other Global Flows as Proxies for National Wellbeing

The digital exhaust left by flows of physical and digital commodities provides a rich measure of the nature, strength and significance of relationships between countries in the global network. With this work, we examine how these traces and the network structure can reveal the socioeconomic profile of different countries. We take into account multiple international networks of physical and digital flows, including the previously unexplored international postal network. By measuring the position of each country in the Trade, Postal, Migration, International Flights, IP and Digital Communications networks, we are able to build proxies for a number of crucial socioeconomic indicators such as GDP per capita and the Human Development Index ranking along with twelve other indicators used as benchmarks of national well-being by the United Nations and other international organisations. In this context, we have also proposed and evaluated a global connectivity degree measure applying multiplex theory across the six networks that accounts for the strength of relationships between countries. We conclude by showing how countries with shared community membership over multiple networks have similar socioeconomic profiles. Combining multiple flow data sources can help understand the forces which drive economic activity on a global level. Such an ability to infer proxy indicators in a context of incomplete information is extremely timely in light of recent discussions on measurement of indicators relevant to the Sustainable Development Goals.

A Short-Run Analysis of Exchange Rates and International Trade with an Application to Australia, New Zealand, and Japan

The information and communication technology (ICT) revolution of the past 3 decades has transformed the world into an integrated marketplace. Today, producers and consumers alike are able to compare the prices of local businesses and worldwide sellers. For an increasing number of tradable goods, they can take advantage of arbitrage opportunities between online and offline transactions. One of the key exogenous elements behind this arbitrage is exchange rate movements. The existing literature on exchange rates has concluded that nominal prices can be assumed to be rigid, which thus opens the door to short-term international arbitrage. However, empirical evidence of international short-term arbitrage has so far been lacking due to data constraints. In this paper, we first present a new dataset that holds records on daily international exchanges of goods, namely those sent through the international postal logistics network. We then combine this data set with daily data on international exchange rate movements to test the hypothesis of international arbitrage. Applying different econometric techniques, we show that in an environment of floating exchange rates, almost instantaneous short-term international arbitrage is indeed occurring and that it has a persistent effect. The effect seems to be particularly pronounced in the developed countries of Asia and the Pacific.