José Francisco de Oliveira Júnior

Avaliação das Estimativas de Precipitação do Produto 3B43-TRMM do Estado do Amazonas

The aim of this study was to evaluate the rainfall data via satellites in Amazonas state, Brazil. To this end, the estimates from the TRMM-3B43 product (2004-2008) were compared with data from seven Conventional Weather Stations (CWS). The comparison was based on the following statistical parameters: Average Error (AE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), linear correlation coefficient (r), and Wilmott’s index of agreement (d). The TRMM-3B43 estimates were similar to the surface data and represent well the seasonal variability of rainfall. The data showed high linear correlation (r = 0.83), high index of agreement (d = 0.85), and satisfactory RMSE (66.6 mm/month). Therefore, rainfall estimates from the TRMM-3B43 product can be used as an alternative source of quality data.

Avaliação das Estimativas de Precipitação do Produto 3B43-TRMM do Estado do Amazonas / Assessment of Rainfall Estimates from the TRMM-3B43 Product in the State of Amazonas

The aim of this study was to evaluate the rainfall data via satellites in Amazonas state, Brazil. To this end, the estimates from the TRMM-3B43 product (2004-2008) were compared with data from seven Conventional Weather Stations (CWS). The comparison was based on the following statistical parameters: Average Error (AE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), linear correlation coefficient (r), and Wilmott’s index of agreement (d). The TRMM-3B43 estimates were similar to the surface data and represent well the seasonal variability of rainfall. The data showed high linear correlation (r = 0.83), high index of agreement (d = 0.85), and satisfactory RMSE (66.6 mm/month). Therefore, rainfall estimates from the TRMM-3B43 product can be used as an alternative source of quality data.

Cenários climáticos da radiação solar global baseados no modelo regional HadRM3 para o Estado do Acre

ABSTRACT Two future climate scenarios have been proposed for the the Western Amazon region - state of Acre, Brazil - using the HadRM3 regional climate model for global solar radiation (Rg). The two climate scenarios, A2 (pessimistic) and B2 (optimistic), are based on findings of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) report. Two distinct seasons were defined for both climate scenarios (dry and rainy): the dry season (from April to September) and the rainy season (from October to March). We chose the time period between 1961 and 1990 as baseline and carried out future simulation from 2070 to 2100 for the A2 and B2 settings. The grid point conversion of the HadRM3 model was based on the Ordinary Kriging method. The smallest values of Rg are found for the western part of Acre state during the dry season in both scenarios. Intermediate values of Rg are observed for the north to south direction, followed by the highest values of Rg for the east side of the state, with significant increase of Rg during the rainy season between 2080 and 2090 for both settings adopted in this study. Based on

Relationship Between Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Fire Occurrence Reports (FOR) in Itatiaia National Park

We evaluated fire foci data via environmental satellites, from Frontal Systems (FS) and South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) together with Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Fire Occurrence Reports (FOR) in Itatiaia National Park (INP). SPI were computed with rainfall data from three stations in INP. SF and SACZ data were obtained via Climanálise. We applied independent multiple regression to FOR, SPI, SF and SACZ. Largest FOR occurred category in C class (81%), highest percentages during winter (57.2%) and spring (35.1%). The critical months to fire foci were July (17%), September (23.2%) and August (31.9%). Regardless of the season, FS (R2 = 0.75) were highlighted to SACZ (R2 = 0.43). SF conditioned 80% of variations between FOR and annual SPI index, while only 40% were due to SACZ.

Cenários Climáticos da Radiação Solar Global Baseados no Modelo Regional HadRM3 para o Estado do Acre / Climate Scenarios of Global Solar Radiation Based on the HadRM3 Regional Climate Model for the State of Acre, Brazil

ABSTRACT Two future climate scenarios have been proposed for the the Western Amazon region - state of Acre, Brazil - using the HadRM3 regional climate model for global solar radiation (Rg). The two climate scenarios, A2 (pessimistic) and B2 (optimistic), are based on findings of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) report. Two distinct seasons were defined for both climate scenarios (dry and rainy): the dry season (from April to September) and the rainy season (from October to March). We chose the time period between 1961 and 1990 as baseline and carried out future simulation from 2070 to 2100 for the A2 and B2 settings. The grid point conversion of the HadRM3 model was based on the Ordinary Kriging method. The smallest values of Rg are found for the western part of Acre state during the dry season in both scenarios. Intermediate values of Rg are observed for the north to south direction, followed by the highest values of Rg for the east side of the state, with significant increase of Rg during the rainy season between 2080 and 2090 for both settings adopted in this study. Based on

MODELO 3-PG NA PREVISÃO DO POTENCIAL PRODUTIVO DE ÁREAS PARA PLANTIOS COMERCIAIS DE Eucalyptus spp.

The prediction of a forest production requires knowledge of the dendrometric and edaphoclimatic variables. This study aimed to adjust and evaluate the accuracy of the 3-PG model in estimating the variables height, diameter at breast height (DBH), volume and mean annual increment (MAI) in commercial plantations of Eucalyptus spp. in northern of Minas Gerais state, using meteorological data from automatic surface stations and remote sensing. To validate the model, data of height, DBH, volume and MAI by 3-PG were estimated and compared with forest inventory data, totaling 335 measurements in 10 plots in the period 2005 to 2011. Linear statistical correlation methods (Pearson - r), the coefficient of determination (R²), the standard error of estimate (S yx ), the standard error of the estimate in percentage (S yx %) and the efficient model (EF) were applied. It was observed that the model tends to overestimate the dendrometric variables when using the parameterization proposal for northern region of Minas Gerais state. After adjusting the parameters for the age of canopy closure (fullCanAge), the relationship between stem and DBH (nS) and parameterization of allometric equations for the total height and volume of wood incorporated in the 3-PG, obtained satisfactory results with values of R² = 0.94 and EF = 0.87 for DBH, height and volume and R² = 0.85 and EF = 0.58 for the MAI, as presented distribution of estimated data close to the average values of the observed data. The 3-PG was shown to be effective in estimating the DBH, height, volume and MAI become a potential tool for evaluating suitable areas for the expansion of new crops.

DINÂMICA ESPACIAL E TEMPORAL DO USO DA TERRA NO MUNICÍPIO DE SEROPÉDICA, RIO DE JANEIRO, BRASIL

Foram avaliados a dinâmica espaco-temporal do uso e cobertura da terra entre os anos de 1990 e 2010 no municipio de Seropedica, Regiao Metropolitana do Rio de Janeiro (RMRJ). Foram utilizadas imagens TM (Thematic Mapper) Landsat 5 e os metodos de classificacoes supervisionadas baseado nos algoritmos da Minima Distância (MINIDIST), Maxima Verossimilhanca (MAXVER) e distância de Mahalanobis (MAHAL). Os resultados obtidos de 1990 mostraram que a classificacao MINIDIST superestimou as classes de areas de agua (5,02%), mata (8,94%), solo exposto (16,05%) e pastagem (59,33%), respectivamente. O MINIDIST em 1990 subestimou a classe area urbana (10,66%) comparado com os demais metodos. As classespastagem (59%), mata (20,68%) e agua (2,25%) foram superestimadas pelo MINIDIST, enquanto que para as classes espectrais de solo exposto (0,92%), area urbana (11,54%) e eucalipto (5,81%) ocorreram subestimativa comparado aos metodos MAHAL e MAXVER em 2010. O vies medio mostrou que os valores de area para ambos os classificadores foram superestimados em relacao aos dados do projeto SOS Mata Atlântica. Os indices de vegetacao mostraram-se compativeis com a literatura, as excecoes foram as discrepâncias na estimativa de area atribuidas a transicao de periodos secos e chuvosos que ocorreram antes da passagem do satelite sobre a regiao. Ressalta-se que todos os classificadores utilizados neste estudo sao passiveis de erro, ou seja, os classificadores foram desenvolvidos na tentativa de aperfeicoarem os trabalhos de interpretacao visual em Seropedica.

SO DO SENSOR TM NA ESTIMATIVA DA TEMPERATURA DA SUPERFÍCIE E MUDANÇA NO USO DO SOLO EM VIÇOSA, MG, BRASIL

O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a dinâmica nouso e cobertura da terra em area de abrangencia de Vicosa, Minas Gerais. Para tanto, utilizou-se o algoritmo SEBAL (Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land) e o metodo de classificacao nao supervisionada por meio do algoritmo ISODATA. Foi utilizada uma serie historicade temperatura do ar (oC), da Estacao Meteorologica Convencional (EMC) do Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) e imagens do sensor TM Landsat 5 do Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), noperiodo que compreendeu 16 anos (1994-2010). Os resultados mostraram que nos anosde 1999, 2000, 2003, 2006, 2009 e 2010 mais de 20 mil hectares foram antropizadas, porem, a partir de 1999 inicia-se um acentuado crescimento das areas classificadas como mata. Os valores demonstraram avanco das areas antropizadas (58,92% em 1994 para 71,90% em 2010) e uma reducao das areas de pastagens (27,04% em 1994 para 5,90% em 2010). A temperatura da superficie estimada pelo algoritmo SEBAL para os anos de 1994 e 2010, apresentaram valores maximos de 38oC em areas antropizadas e valores minimos de 18oC em areas de vegetacao. Com base no calculo do vies medio (VM), o presente estudo mostrou que os dados estimados da temperatura da superficie apresentaram boa correlacao de 0,67 com os dados do INMET, ja que as temperaturas foram subestimadas e superestimadas com valores minimos e maximos de -3,83oC e 2,65oC em 1994 e 2003. Os resultados obtidos, ainda que em carater preliminar, indicam a eficiencia do Sensoriamento Remoto (SR) por meio da analise das bandas refletivas e termal do satelite Landsat 5 como ferramenta de analise na identificacao da dinâmica do uso do solo, mostrando-se eficaz quanto a espacializacao dessas anomalias no espaco e no tempo.