José Luís Oreiro

Determinantes macroeconômicos do spread bancário no Brasil: teoria e evidência recente

No Brasil, em razao do sucesso do processo de estabilizacao de precos, da maior abertura e integracao ao mercado financeiro internacional e, mais recentemente, da adocao de um regime de taxa de câmbio flutuante, esperava-se que os spreads bancarios iriam, em algum grau, convergir para os niveis internacionais, o que acabou por nao acontecer. De fato, um dos principais fatores que impedem o crescimento do credito no Brasil - cuja relacao credito/PIB tem caido de forma acentuada de 1994 aos dias de hoje - sao as elevadissimas taxas de juros dos emprestimos que tem sido praticadas no Pais. O presente artigo tem por objetivo aprofundar a discussao sobre a determinacao do spread bancario no Brasil, procurando mostrar que os determinantes ma-croeconomicos sao fatores importantes a serem considerados na explicacao do comportamento do spread no Pais. Para tanto, realiza-se uma analise de regressao multipla com o intuito de identificar as variaveis macroe-conomicas que podem estar influenciando direta ou indiretamente o spread no Brasil no periodo 1994/2003. O artigo apresenta evidencias de que a elevada volatilidade da taxa de juros e seu nivel sao os determinantes macroeconomicos principais do elevado spread bancario no Brasil.

An assessment of the global impact of the financial crisis

Introduction Current Crisis in the US and Economic Policy Implications The Global Economic and Financial Crisis: Which way Forward? Crises and the Bretton Woods Institutions and the Crises of the Bretton Woods Institutions Crisis in the Euro-Zone The Impact of the Current Crisis on Emerging Market and Developing Countries Crisis in Western and Eastern EU: Does Policy Reaction Address its Origins? The Impact of the Sub-Prime Financial Crisis on the Transition and Central Asian Economies: Causes and Consequences World Financial Crisis and Implications on China The 2008 Financial Crisis and Banking Regulation in Brazil Exchange-Rate Derivatives, Financial Fragility and Monetary Policy in Brazil during the World Financial Crisis

Strategy for Economic Growth in Brazil: a Post Keynesian Approach

The paper proposes a Keynesian strategy for economic policy that aims to achieve higher, stable and sustained economic growth in Brazil. Its main hypothesis is that the current poor growth performance of the Brazilian economy is due to macroeconomic and structural constraints rather than to the lack of microeconomic reforms.

Preferência pela liquidez, racionamento de crédito e concentração bancária uma nova teoria pós-keynesiana da firma bancária

The objective of the present article is to present a general model of the banking firm beha-vior which encompasses the post Keynesian theory of banks liquidity preference, the Stiglitz-Weiss´s hypothesis that expected default rate is an increasing function of loan interest rate and the Tobinisque hypothesis that the deposit retention coefficient is an increasing function of the concentration ratio in banking industry. This general model allows us to arrive at some interesting conclusions. First of all, we show that the optimal banking spread is an increasing function of the concentration ratio in banking industry. Second, we show that an increase in the level of the interest rate controlled by the Central Bank will (i) reduce the optimal level of the banking spread, and (ii) will reduce de supply of banking credit. Last, but not least, we show that an increase in the concentration ratio in banking industry has an ambiguous effect over the supply of banking credit.

UMA ESTRATÉGIA KEYNESIANA PARA A SUSTENTABILIDADE DE LONGO PRAZO DA DÍVIDA PÚBLICA

Resumo: Este artigo objetiva analisar as condicoes necessarias para a sustentabilidade de longo prazo da divida publica interna. Para tanto, apresenta uma alternativa keynesiana de longo prazo (ate 2011) para superacao do problema do endividamento publico, que garanta tanto a sua sustentabilidade quanto um maior crescimento economico para o pais, baseada nas seguintes premissas: taxa de inflacao media de 8,5% a.a., taxa real de juros de 6,0% a.a., crescimento real do PIB de 4,5% a.a. e superavit primario de 3,0% do PIB. Esta proposta e contraposta a estrategia chamada de conservadora, inspirada nas concepcoes da equipe economica do Governo Lula.

Exchange-Rate Derivatives, Financial Fragility and Monetary Policy in Brazil during the World Financial Crisis

The crisis of subprime mortgages in the United States, which began in mid-2007 and intensified in the last months of 2008 following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, brought an end to the internationally favourable situation the Brazilian economy seems to have taken advantage of in the past few years. Since September 2008, there has been a significant decrease in the level of international liquidity. Credit lines for exports shrank dramatically, slowing down export expansion, while a generalised increase in risk aversion produced an outflow of liquid capital from Brazil of the order of US

ACUMULAÇÃO DE CAPITAL, ABERTURA FINANCEIRA E ENDIVIDAMENTO EXTERNO: UM MODELO MACRODINÂMICO PÓS-KEYNESIANO COM CÂMBIO FLEXÍVEL E MOBILIDADE DE CAPITAIS

11 billion in the months of October to December 2008. Because of capital movements, between July (the valley of the exchange rate series) and December (the peak of the series) 2008, the Brazilian currency was devalued by 50 per cent against the US dollar; the depreciation in the year was 34 per cent. Panic has spread throughout the country’s banking system as a combined result of all such factors, leading to a further drastic reduction in credit to families as well as to firms. A consequence of this sort of credit evaporation was a strong deceleration in the growth pace of consumption and the otherwise already announced hold on a number of investment projects. As an overall result, the Brazilian economy experienced a 0.2 per cent fall in its GDP in 2009.

Capital Accumulation, Income Distribution, Technical Progress And Endogenous Money In A Post-Keynesian Macrodynamic Model

The objective of this article is to present a post-keynesian macrodynamic model in order to analyze the effects of the liberalization of capital account over the economic performance of developing economies. In this setting, comparative static analysis show that an increase in the level of external debt can have positive effects for the economy in the short-run, since it induces an increase in the level of capacity utilization and the growth rate of capital stock. However, long-run dynamics show that, under certain conditions, the access to international capital markets can generate explosive paths for the economic system, mainly if monetary policy is conducted under a Inflation Targeting Regime. Besides that, it was show that a reduction in the target rate of inflation can generate a permanent increase in the level of interest rate as well as an increase in the level of external debt, which will increase the external fragility of the economy at hand.

Macroeconomic policy regimes, real exchange rate overvaluation, and performance of the Brazilian economy (2003–2015)

The objective this paper is to analyze the dynamic path of the profit rate, the interest rate, the rate of capital accumulation and the degree of utilization of the productive capacity face exogenous changes of the intensity of technological progress and the propensity to save of capitalists within a Post-Keynesian macroeconomic dynamic model that join the real and monetary side of the economy. The computational simulation allowed investigating the degree of proximity of the model to the dynamics of a real economy. The simulation showed, amongst other results, that: (i) the profit rate is significantly elastic with regard to the rate of technological progress, while the interests rate and the degree of utilization of the capacity are little sensible to this variable; and (ii) the confirmation of the paradox of the thrift, according to which an increase of the propensity to save of the capitalists reduces the level of the aggregate saving.

POLÍTICA FISCAL, CRESCIMENTO, DISTRIBUIÇÃO DE RENDA E REGIMES DE ENDIVIDAMENTO PÚBLICO

The objective of this article is to present a review of the workings of the macroeconomic policy regimes in Brazil since 2003 in order to show that both the macroeconomic policy tripod and the new macroeconomic matrix were not capable of ensuring macroeconomic stability in the medium- to long term due to their incapacity to avoid a persistent overvaluation of the real exchange rate or to stop the increasing trend in primary expenditures/gross domestic product, which produced a major fiscal crisis in 2015.