José Luiz Pereira de Rezende

Longitudinal analysis of wood charcoal prices in the State of Minas Gerais.

O carvao vegetal e um recurso energetico renovavel, sendo um dos insumos basicos responsaveis pelo desenvolvimento das industrias de base florestal no Brasil. O Estado de Minas Gerais e o maior produtor e consumidor desse produto. No presente estudo, dedicou-se a analise das series longitudinais dos precos do metro cubico de carvao vegetal, no Estado de Minas Gerais, utilizando os precos medios pagos por metro cubico, publicados pela ABRACAVE. Para a analise da serie, considerou-se o modelo SARIMA, com o objetivo de encontrar os parâmetros que fornecam melhores previsoes de preco. Consideraram-se os precos do periodo de janeiro de 1975 a dezembro de 2002, para ajustar o modelo e o periodo de janeiro a dezembro de 2003 para validacao das projecoes. A escolha do modelo mais adequado se baseou nas analises graficas, nos testes estocasticos e nos criterios de avaliacao da ordem do modelo. Entre os modelos estudados, o SARIMA (2,0,1)(0,1,1)12 proporcionou melhor ajuste e de forma parcimoniosa. Apesar de ter ocorrido um fator aleatorio que distorceu os valores reais dos precos do carvao vegetal, as projecoes fornecidas pelo modelo ficaram dentro dos limites de significância estabelecidos.

Economic feasibility and rotation age for stands of candeia (Eremanthus erythropappus)

Cultivation of nonnative candeia is an alternative way of obtaining raw material to meet the market demands for essential oils and fence posts. A successful stand is conditional on careful planning intended to optimize activities and make the project economically feasible. The objective of this study was to analyze the economic feasibility and to determine the economic rotation age for stands of candeia (Eremanthus erythropappus) using different interrow spacing arrangements, as well as to analyze the sensitivity of both economic indicators for candeia and economic rotation to variations in cash flow variables. Equivalent Annual Value (VAE) was the method used for the economic analyses. A simulation was carried out to detect VAE sensitivity to changes in variables related to cash flow. It was concluded that candeia cultivation can be profitable when spacing arrangements are 1.5 x 2.0 m or more. Arrangements denser than that are economically unfeasible for the ages being analyzed. Among the analyzed spacing arrangements, 1.5 x 3.0 m was found to be the most profitable and less risky. The economic rotation age for candeia is 15 years using 1.5 x 1.5 m spacing; 13 years using 1.5 x 2.0m and 1.5 x 2.5 m spacing; and 12 years using 1.5 x 3.0 m spacing. Proportional variations in timber price, volume output and interest rate implied inversely proportional variations in economic rotation for the spacing arrangements being studied. Conversely, proportional variations in seedling price implied directly proportional variations in rotation. Changes in land price did not affect economic rotation for any of the spacing arrangements.

Áreas de preservação permanente na legislação ambiental brasileira

A Area de Preservacao Permanente (APP), principal area protegida instituida por norma juridica no Brasil, foi criada pelo Codigo Florestal (Lei 4.771) em 1965. Por sua importância ecologica e fornecimento de bens e servicos ambientais ao homem, as APPs sao reconhecidas por suas funcoes tecnicas como areas que devem ser preservadas. Muitas interpretacoes divergem do espirito da criacao da Lei, seja pelo preciosismo linguistico ou pelo uso distorcido da hermeneutica O objetivo desta pesquisa foi analisar os principais pontos conflituosos do entendimento, da interpretacao e da instituicao das Areas de Preservacao Permanente. Concluiu-se que ha, na literatura, pertinentes interpretacoes contrarias ao espirito da norma juridica que institui as APPs; as APPs devem ser preservadas e, em caso de degradacao, a legislacao deixa patente que o passivo ambiental deve ser sanado; a intocabilidade das APPs nao e inexoravel, pois o CONAMA, em alguns casos, pode definir criterios para sua utilizacao; as intervencoes em APP, permitidas por lei nos casos de utilidade publica, interesse social e atividade eventual e de baixo impacto ambiental necessitam de melhor regulamentacao.

Competitividade da cadeia produtiva da madeira de eucalipto no Brasil

The present work aimed to analyze the competitiveness of the eucalyptus productive chain in Brazil, comparing different production systems, through a policy analysis matrix (PAM). Based on the results obtained, it was concluded that the private and social profitability of the production and commercialization of eucalyptus was positive and greater in flat areas; Brazilian producers were penalized by the public policies adopted for the sector; the production in flat areas was more competitive and less exposed to the negative effects of public policies; and national producers had decreased profits.Este trabalho teve como objetivo geral analisar a competitividade da cadeia produtiva da madeira de eucalipto no Brasil, comparando diferentes sistemas de producao, por meio da matriz de analise politica (MAP). Pelos resultados, conclui-se que a lucratividade privada e social da producao e comercializacao da madeira de eucalipto foi positiva e maior em areas motomecanizaveis; os produtores brasileiros foram penalizados por politicas publicas adotadas para o setor; a producao em areas motomecanizaveis apresentou-se mais competitiva e menos exposta aos efeitos negativos das politicas publicas; e os produtores nacionais tiveram seus lucros reduzidos.

Concentração das exportações mundiais de produtos florestais

This study analyzed the degree of concentration in worldwide exports of forest products in the period ranging from 1961 to 2008. The data used are available at the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The concentration was determined by the concentration ratio [HR (k)], the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), Theil Entropy Index (E) and the Gini index (G). The main conclusions were: The aggregate Brazilian share in the world exports of forest products is increasing over time; the most important sectors in the aggregate world exports of forest products, in decreasing order, were pulp, lumber, paper and cardboard, wooden panels, saw and fire wood. According to Bain, the concentration ratio of the four and eight largest exporters of forest products is moderately low; the HHI and Theil Entropy (E) show a reduction in the concentration of world exports of forest products and greater competition among the countries that sell such products; the Gini index indicates that despite the increase in export of forest products over the period of analysis, a smaller number of competitors concentrate increasingly larger shares of international exports of

Economic analysis of replacement regeneration and coppice regeneration in eucalyptus stands under risk conditions

Projects are by their very nature subject to conditions of uncertainty that obstruct the decision-making process. Uncertainties involving forestry projects are even greater, as they are combined with time of return on capital invested, being medium to long term. For successful forest planning, it is necessary to quantify uncertainties by converting them into risks. The decision on whether to adopt replacement regeneration or coppice regeneration in a forest stand is influenced by several factors, which include land availability for new forest crops, changes in project end use, oscillations in demand and technological advancement. This study analyzed the economic feasibility of replacement regeneration and coppice regeneration of eucalyptus stands, under deterministic and under risk conditions. Information was gathered about costs and revenues for charcoal production in order to structure the cash flow used in the economic analysis, adopting the Net Present Value method (VPL). Risk assessment was based on simulations running the Monte Carlo method. Results led to the following conclusions: replacement regeneration is economically viable, even if the future stand has the same productivity as the original stand; coppice regeneration is an economically viable option even if productivity is a mere 70% of the original stand (high-tree planted stand), the best risk-return ratio option is restocking the stand (replacement regeneration) by one that is 20% more productive; the probabilistic analysis running the Monte Carlo method revealed that invariably there is economic viability for the various replacement and coppice regeneration options being studied, minimizing uncertainties and consequently increasing confidence in decision-making.

Economic analysis of sustainable management of candeia

Candeia wood (Eremanthus erythropappus) is widely used for production of essential oil and its active ingredient, alpha-bisabolol, is consumed by both the cosmetics and pharmaceutical industry. This study aimed to determine the productivity and operating costs associated with exploration, transportation and commercialization of candeia timber obtained from sustainable management systems and used for oil production; to determine the gross income or revenue obtained from the sale of candeia timber; to analyze the economic feasibility of sustainable management of candeia. For the economic analysis, Net Present Value, Net Present Value over an infinite planning horizon, and Average Cost of Production methods were used. Results indicated that the most significant costs associated with candeia forest management involve transportation and exploration. Together they account for 64% of the total management cost. Candeia forest management for oil production is economically feasible, even in situations where the interest rate is high or timber price drops to levels well below currently effective prices. As far as candeia forest management is concerned, shorter harvest cycles allow higher profitability. However, even in situations where the harvest cycle is relatively long (30 years), the activity is still economically feasible.

Competitividade da produção de celulose em diferentes estados do Brasil

No presente trabalho, objetivou-se analisar a competitividade da producao de celulose de fibra curta nos estados de Minas Gerais, Sao Paulo, Espirito Santo e Bahia, em maio de 2008, utilizando a Matriz de Analise Politica (MAP). Os resultados obtidos indicaram que as lucratividades privada e social da producao e comercializacao da celulose foram positivas e maiores na Bahia. As empresas brasileiras foram penalizadas por politicas publicas adotadas para o setor. A producao de celulose em Sao Paulo e Bahia foi mais competitiva e menos exposta aos efeitos negativos das politicas publicas. E, as empresas nacionais tiveram seus lucros reduzidos.

Economic analysis of agroforestry systems with candeia

Cultivation of nonnative candeia under conditions of monoculture or in agroforestry systems comes as an interesting alternative to meet the market demand for timber from this particular species, while at the same time helping reduce pressure on native candeia fragments. The objective of this study was to analyze the economic feasibility of candeia cultivation, in risk situations, under conditions of monoculture and intercropped with other agricultural crops. The study site is located in the municipality of Baependi, southern Minas Gerais state, and the experiment was set up in an area of 3.2 hectares, using a randomized block design with six treatments and three replicates. The analysis of economic feasibility was performed using the Net Present Value method for an infinite planning horizon (VPL  ). For the risk analysis, the Monte Carlo method was used. The agroforestry systems being tested were found to be economically feasible, noting that the system in which candeia is cultivated at spacing intervals of 10 x 2 meters, intercropped with corn in between rows, is more profitable and less risky than the others. Candeia cultivation as a monoculture is economically feasible, provided that soil tillage is done conventionally.

Analysis of the Brazilian cellulose industry concentration (1998 - 2007)

Este trabalho analisou o grau de concentracao da industria brasileira de celulose, no periodo de 1998 a 2007, enfatizando os principais indicadores de desempenho do setor. Os dados necessarios foram extraidos no Relatorio Estatistico da BRACELPA, no periodo de 1998 a 2007. O grau de concentracao foi determinado usando-se os indices: Razao de Concentracao (CR); Indice de Herfindahl-Hirschman (HHI); Indice de Entropia de Theil (E) e; o coeficiente de Gini (G). As principais conclusoes obtidas foram: Os indices CR(4), CR(8), HHI e Entropia de Theil mostraram-se elevados, apesar das oscilacoes apresentadas em certos momentos. A desigualdade da industria medida pelo indice de Gini foi considerada alta, reafirmando a hipotese inicial do trabalho.