Joseph M. Zawodny

Measured Trends in Stratospheric Ozone

Recent findings, based on both ground-based and satellite measurements, have established that there has been an apparent downward trend in the total column amount of ozone over mid-latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere in all seasons. Measurements of the altitude profile of the change in the ozone concentration have established that decreases are taking place in the lower stratosphere in the region of highest ozone concentration. Analysis of updated ozone records, through March of 1991, including 29 stations in the former Soviet Union, and analysis of independently calibrated satellite data records from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer and Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment instruments confirm many of the findings originally derived from the Dobson record concerning northern midlatitude changes in ozone. The data from many instruments now provide a fairly consistent picture of the change that has occurred in stratospheric ozone levels.

Stratospheric effects of energetic particle precipitation in 2003-2004

Upper stratospheric enhancements in NOx (NO and NO2) were observed at high northern latitudes from March through at least July of 2004. Multi-satellite data analysis is used to examine the temporal evolution of the enhancements, to place them in historical context, and to investigate their origin. The enhancements were a factor of 4 higher than nominal at some locations, and are unprecedented in the northern hemisphere since at least 1985. They were accompanied by reductions in O-3 of more than 60% in some cases. The analysis suggests that energetic particle precipitation led to substantial NOx production in the upper atmosphere beginning with the remarkable solar storms in late October 2003 and possibly persisting through January. Downward transport of the excess NOx, facilitated by unique meteorological conditions in 2004 that led to an unusually strong upper stratospheric vortex from late January through March, caused the enhancements.

Evidence for slowdown in stratospheric ozone loss: First stage of ozone recovery

[1] Global ozone trends derived from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment I and II (SAGE I/II) combined with the more recent Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) observations provide evidence of a slowdown in stratospheric ozone losses since 1997. This evidence is quantified by the cumulative sum of residual differences from the predicted linear trend. The cumulative residuals indicate that the rate of ozone loss at 35– 45 km altitudes globally has diminished. These changes in loss rates are consistent with the slowdown of total stratospheric chlorine increases characterized by HALOE HCl measurements. These changes in the ozone loss rates in the upper stratosphere are significant and constitute the first stage of a recovery of the ozone layer. INDEX TERMS: 0340 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Middle atmosphere—composition and chemistry; 0341 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Middle atmosphere—constituent transport and chemistry (3334); 1610 Global Change: Atmosphere (0315, 0325); KEYWORDS: stratospheric ozone trends, CFCs, Montreal Protocol Citation: Newchurch, M. J., E.-S. Yang, D. M. Cunnold, G. C. Reinsel, J. M. Zawodny, and J. M. Russell III, Evidence for slowdown in stratospheric ozone loss: First stage of ozone recovery, J. Geophys. Res., 108(D16), 4507, doi:10.1029/2003JD003471, 2003.

Validation of SAGE II ozone measurements

Stratospheric aerosol and gas experiment (SAGE) II satellite-borne measurements of the stratospheric profiles of NO2 at sunset have been made since October 1984. The measurements are made by solar occultation and are derived from the difference between the absorptions in narrow bandwidth channels centered at 0.448 and 0.453 μm. The precision of the profiles is approximately 5% between an upper altitude of 36 km and a latitude-dependent lower altitude at which the mixing ratio is 4 ppbv (for example, approximately 25 km at mid-latitudes and 29 km in the tropics). At lower altitudes the precision is approximately 0.2 ppbv. The profiles are nominally smoothed over 1 km except at altitudes where the extinction is less than 2×10−5/km. (approximately 38 km altitude), where 5 km smoothing is employed. The profile measurement noise has an autocorrelation distance of 3–5 km for 1 km smoothing and more than 10 km for 5 km smoothing. The absolute accuracy of the measurements is estimated to be 15% based on uncertainties in the absorption cross-sections and their temperature dependence. Comparisons against two sets of balloon profiles and atmospheric trace molecules spectroscopy experiment (ATMOS) measurements show agreement within approximately 10% over the altitude range of 23 to 37 km at mid-latitudes. SAGE II NO2 measurements are calculated to be approximately 20% smaller at the mixing ratio peak than average limb infrared monitor of the stratosphere (LIMS) measurements in the tropics in 1979. They show acceptable agreement with SAGE I sunset NO2 measurements in the tropics in 1979–1981 when the limited resolution and precision of the SAGE I measurements and the differences between the two measurement techniques are considered.

Forcings and chaos in interannual to decadal climate change

We investigate the roles of climate forcings and chaos (unforced variability) in climate change via ensembles of climate simulations in which we add forcings one by one. The experiments suggest that most interannual climate variability in the period 1979–1996 at middle and high latitudes is chaotic. But observed SST anomalies, which themselves are partly forced and partly chaotic, account for much of the climate variability at low latitudes and a small portion of the variability at high latitudes. Both a natural radiative forcing (volcanic aerosols) and an anthropogenic forcing (ozone depletion) leave clear signatures in the simulated climate change that are identified in observations. Pinatubo aerosols warm the stratosphere and cool the surface globally, causing a tendency for regional surface cooling. Ozone depletion cools the lower stratosphere, troposphere and surface, steepening the temperature lapse rate in the troposphere. Solar irradiance effects are small, but our model is inadequate to fully explore this forcing. Well-mixed anthropogenic greenhouse gases cause a large surface wanning that, over the 17 years, approximately offsets cooling by the other three mechanisms. Thus the net calculated effect of all measured radiative forcings is approximately zero surface temperature trend and zero heat storage in the ocean for the period 1979–1996. Finally, in addition to the four measured radiative forcings, we add an initial (1979) disequilibrium forcing of +0.65 W/m2. This forcing yields a global surface warming of about 0.2°C over 1979–1996, close to observations, and measurable heat storage in the ocean. We argue that the results represent evidence of a planetary radiative imbalance of at least 0.5° W/m2; this disequilibrium presumably represents unrealized wanning due to changes of atmospheric composition prior to 1979. One implication of the disequilibrium forcing is an expectation of new record global temperatures in the next few years. The best opportunity for observational confirmation of the disequilibrium is measurement of ocean temperatures adequate to define heat storage.

An overview of sage I and II ozone measurements

Abstract The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiments (SAGE) I and II measure Mie, Rayleigh, and gaseous extinction profiles using the solar occultation technique. These global measurements yield ozone profiles with a vertical resolution of 1 km which have been routinely obtained for the periods from February 1979 to November 1981 (SAGE I) and October 1984 to the present (SAGE II). The long-term periodic behavior of the measured ozone is presented as well as case studies of the observed short-term spatial and temporal variability. A linear regression shows annual, semi-annual, and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) features at various altitudes and latitudes which, in general, agree with past work. Also, ozone, aerosol, and water vapor data are described for the Antarctic springtime showing large variation relative to the vortex. Cross-sections in latitude and altitude and polar plots at various altitudes clearly delineate the ozone hole vertically and areally. Comparisons of vertical profiles are made from 1979 to 1988. Although there is a three-year gap between the SAGE I and II measurements, the two data sets have been used to determine long-term changes in ozone. The intercomparison generally shows decreases in the upper stratosphere (25–50 km) of 4% or less from 1980 to 1986.

Seasonal variation of water vapor in the lower stratosphere observed in Halogen Occultation Experiment data

The seasonal cycle of water vapor in the lower stratosphere is studied based on Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) satellite observations spanning 1991–2000. The seasonal cycle highlights fast, quasi-horizontal transport between tropics and midlatitudes in the lowermost stratosphere (near isentropic levels ∼380–420 K), in addition to vertical propagation above the equator (the tropical “tape recorder”). The rapid isentropic transport out of the tropics produces a layer of relatively dry air over most of the globe throughout the year, and the seasonal cycle in midlatitudes of both hemispheres (and over the Arctic pole) follows that in the tropics. Additionally, the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon has a dominant influence on hemispheric-scale constituent transport. Longitudinal structures in tropical water vapor and ozone identify regions of strong coupling to the troposphere; an intriguing result is that the solstice minima in water vapor and ozone are spatial separated from maximum convection and coldest tropical temperatures. Detailed comparisons with tropical aircraft measurements and the long record of balloon data from Boulder, Colorado, demonstrate the overall high quality of HALOE water vapor data.

Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II measurements of the quasi-biennial oscillations in ozone and nitrogen dioxide

The first measurements ever to show a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in NO2 have been made by the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II (SAGE II) and are presented in this work along with observations of the well-known QBO in stratospheric ozone. The SAGE II instrument was launched aboard the Earth Radiation Budget satellite near the end of 1984. Measurements of ozone and nitrogen dioxide through early 1990 are analyzed for the presence of a quasi-biennial oscillation. The measurements show the global extent of both the O3 and NO2 QBO in the 25- to 40-km region of the stratosphere. The SAGE II QBO results for ozone compare favorably to theory and previous measurements. The QBO in NO2 is found to be consistent with the vertical and horizontal transport of NOy. Both species exhibit a QBO at extratropical latitudes consistent with strong meridional transport into the winter hemisphere.

Trends in stratospheric and free tropospheric ozone

Current understanding of the long-term ozone trends is described. Of particular concern is an assessment of the quality of the available measurements, both ground and satellite based. Trends in total ozone have been calculated for the ground-based network and the combined data set from the solar backscatter ultraviolet (SBUV) instruments on Nimbus 7 and NOAA 11. At midlatitudes in the northern hemisphere the trends from 1979 to 1994 are significantly negative in all seasons and are larger in winter/spring (up to 7%/decade) than in summer/fall (about 3%/decade). Trends in the southern midlatitudes are also significantly negative in all seasons (3 to 6%/decade), but there is a smaller seasonal variation. In the tropics, trends are slightly negative and at the edge of being significant at the 95% confidence level: these tropical trends are sensitive to the low ozone amounts observed near the end of the record and allowance must also be made for the suspected drift in the satellite calibration. The bulk of the midlatitude loss in the ozone column has taken place at altitudes between 15 and 25 km. There is disagreement on the magnitude of the reduction, with the SAGE I/II record showing trends as large as -20 ± 8%/decade at 16-17 km and the ozonesondes indicating an average trend of -7 ± 3%/decade in the northern hemisphere. (All uncertainties given in this paper are two standard errors or 95% confidence limits unless stated otherwise). Recent ozone measurements are described for both Antarctica and the rest of the globe. The sulphate aerosol resulting from the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 and dynamic phenomena seem to have affected ozone levels, particularly at northern midlatitudes and in the Antarctic vortex. However, the record low values observed were partly caused by the long-term trends and the effect on the calculated trends was less than 1.5%/decade.

Two‐dimensional and three‐dimensional model simulations, measurements, and interpretation of the influence of the October 1989 solar proton events on the middle atmosphere

The very large solar proton events (SPEs) which occurred from October 19 to 27, 1989, earned substantial middle-atmospheric HOx and NOx constituent increases. Although no measurements of HOx increases were made during these SPEs, increases in NO were observed by rocket instruments which are in good agreement with calculated NO increases from our proton energy degradation code. Both the HOx and the NOx increases can cause ozone decreases; however, the HOx-induced ozone changes are relatively short-lived because HOx species have lifetimes of only hours in the middle atmosphere. Our two-dimensional model, when used to simulate effects of the longer-lived NOx, predicted lower-stratospheric polar ozone decreases of greater than 2% persisting for one and a half years past these SPEs. Previous three-dimensional model simulations of these SPEs (Jackman et al., 1993) indicated the importance of properly representing the polar vortices and warming events when accounting for the ozone decreases observed by the solar backscattered ultraviolet 2 instrument two months past these atmospheric perturbations. In an expansion of that study, we found that it was necessary to simulate the November 1, 1989, to April 2, 1990, time period and the November 1, 1986, to April 2, 1987, time period with our three-dimensional model in order to more directly compare to the stratospheric aerosol and gas experiment (SAGE) II observations of lower stratospheric NO2 and ozone changes between the end of March 1987 and 1990 at 70°N. Both the NOx increases from the October 1989 SPEs and the larger downward transport in the 1989–1990 northern winter compared to the 1986–1987 northern winter contributed to the large enhancements in NO2 in the lower stratosphere observed in the SAGE II measurements at the end of March 1990. Our three-dimensional model simulations predict smaller ozone decreases than those observed by SAGE II in the lower stratosphere near the end of March 1990, indicating that other factors, such as heterogeneous chemistry, might also be influencing the constituents of this region.