Joseph P. Martino

A review of selected recent advances in technological forecasting

Abstract During the past decade, there have been some significant developments in technological forecasting methodology. This paper describes developments in environmental scanning, models, scenarios, Delphi, extrapolation, probabilistic forecasts, technology measurement and some chaos-like behavior in technological data. Some of these developments are refinements of earlier methodology, such as using computerized data mining (DM) for environmental scanning, which extends the power of earlier methods. Other methodology developments, such as the use of cellular automata and object-oriented simulation, represent new approaches to basic forecasting methods. Probabilistic forecasts were developed only within the past decade, but now appear ready for practical use. Other developments include the wide use of some methods, such as the massive national Delphi studies carried out in Japan, Korea, Germany and India. Other new developments include empirical tests of various trend extrapolation methods, to assist the forecaster in selecting the appropriate trend model for a specific case. Each of these developments is discussed in detail.

The selection of R&D program content — Survey of quantitative methods

This paper presents a summary of methods of evaluating and selecting R&D projects. Approximately thirty methods, which have appeared in scattered places in the literature, are described briefly, and a bibliography is provided for further information. The various methods are compared and contrasted with each other relative to a standard set of features which they may possess, to a standard set of characteristics relating to ease of use, and to scientific or technological area of applicability.

A comparison of two composite measures of technology

Abstract When a technology is characterized by multiple parameters, some means of combining these into a single measure of performance is required. This paper compares two different composite measures of technology by applying them to the same data set, fighter aircraft preformance. In general, the two methods produce results consistent with each other, but some individual devices are not treated consistently. The similarities and differences between the two methods are discussed.

An experiment with the Delphi procedure for long-range forecasting

Long-range planning requires the use of a forecast, either implicit or explicit. The Delphi procedure is one method of obtaining an explicit forecast. This experiment was conducted to determine the problems and difficulties associated with the use of the Delphi procedure. It was concluded that the procedure is workable and does not require undue effort to be carried out. Information on man hours required, delays involved, and degree of change of opinion during the course of the procedure is given.

Thirty years of change and stability

Abstract The passage of 30 years has seen little change in the most popular methods of technological forecasting. Refinements have come primarily in the tools of the forecaster, such as computer hardware and software. At present, it appears that the primary avenue for further development of methodology is in the area of stochastic forecasts.

Using precursors as leading indicators of technological change

Abstract Technological forecasters frequently utilize the procedure of “monitoring for precursors” in an attempt to anticipate technological changes. In a recent study on patterns of innovation, it was found that the data provided examples of precursors which could be used to illustrate the monitoring technique. In addition, it proved possible to extend the monitoring technique through the generation of probability distributions. The examples, and the extension, are reported here.

Cluster analysis of cross impact model scenarios

Abstract Analysis of outputs of cross impact models often focuses on counts of frequency of occurence of events, and frequency of co-occurence of events, to estimate the probabilities of these events. This paper describes an additional analysis which can be performed on the output of a cross impact model. Individual output scenarios are clustered together on the basis of similarity, utilizing standard techniques of cluster analysis. The resulting clusters of similar scenarios can be viewed as “typical” scenarios and analyzed in terms of how much they differ from the overall average for the complete set of output scenarios. Analysis of the reasons for these differences helps identify critical events and significant relationships among events. The paper discusses the clustering algorithm used and the type of output to be expected.

Technological indicators of market shift

Abstract The past few years have seen many cases of displacement of domestic products by similar imported products, or by domestic products performing the same function but using a different technology. It would be desirable to forecast these technologically based market shifts before they have adverse effects on the industry whose products are being displaced. This paper describes research that shows that indicators of technological change (patents, papers, R&D expenditures) can provide from one to three years advanced warning of a market shift.

Recent Developments in Technological Forecasting

Technological forecasting means the prediction of characteristics or use of “technology.” The methods used by technological forecasters are in principle no different from those used by forecasters in other application areas. However, the unique problems of the field require that the methods be adapted to those problems. This paper discusses recent developments involving refinements in the methods which have been in use for the past several decades. It also describes some important recent work on estimating upper limits to the progress of technologies, and on quantitative measures of multi-attribute technologies. Finally, it discusses several issues common to all forecasting application areas, as they are dealt with in technological forecasting. These issues include validation, disasters of forecasting, determinism in forecasting, and some examples of forecasts with practical applications.

Barriers to use of policy-relevant information by decision makers☆

Abstract This paper identifies the major barriers which hinder or prevent the application of policy-relevant information, derived from analytical techniques, to practical decisions by actual decision makers. The focus of the report is on Technology Assessment (TA), as an analytical technique which has not yet received the level of utilization which its practitioners have hoped for. However, TA borrows from the older analytic disciplines of technological forecasting and systems analysis, and is related to others such as cost-benefit analysis. Because of the similarities with these other disciplines, many of the barriers which hinder the application of these older techniques also act as barriers to the greater