Josh K. Willis

Robust warming of the global upper ocean.

A large (∼1023 J) multi-decadal globally averaged warming signal in the upper 300 m of the world’s oceans was reported roughly a decade ago and is attributed to warming associated with anthropogenic greenhouse gases. The majority of the Earth’s total energy uptake during recent decades has occurred in the upper ocean, but the underlying uncertainties in ocean warming are unclear, limiting our ability to assess closure of sea-level budgets, the global radiation imbalance and climate models. For example, several teams have recently produced different multi-year estimates of the annually averaged global integral of upper-ocean heat content anomalies (hereafter OHCA curves) or, equivalently, the thermosteric sea-level rise. Patterns of interannual variability, in particular, differ among methods. Here we examine several sources of uncertainty that contribute to differences among OHCA curves from 1993 to 2008, focusing on the difficulties of correcting biases in expendable bathythermograph (XBT) data. XBT data constitute the majority of the in situ measurements of upper-ocean heat content from 1967 to 2002, and we find that the uncertainty due to choice of XBT bias correction dominates among-method variability in OHCA curves during our 1993–2008 study period. Accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty, a composite of several OHCA curves using different XBT bias corrections still yields a statistically significant linear warming trend for 1993–2008 of 0.64 W m-2 (calculated for the Earth’s entire surface area), with a 90-per-cent confidence interval of 0.53–0.75 W m-2.

Changing Expendable Bathythermograph Fall Rates and Their Impact on Estimates of Thermosteric Sea Level Rise

Abstract A time-varying warm bias in the global XBT data archive is demonstrated to be largely due to changes in the fall rate of XBT probes likely associated with small manufacturing changes at the factory. Deep-reaching XBTs have a different fall rate history than shallow XBTs. Fall rates were fastest in the early 1970s, reached a minimum between 1975 and 1985, reached another maximum in the late 1980s and early 1990s, and have been declining since. Field XBT/CTD intercomparisons and a pseudoprofile technique based on satellite altimetry largely confirm this time history. A global correction is presented and applied to estimates of the thermosteric component of sea level rise. The XBT fall rate minimum from 1975 to 1985 appears as a 10-yr “warm period” in the global ocean in thermosteric sea level and heat content estimates using uncorrected data. Upon correction, the thermosteric sea level curve has reduced decadal variability and a larger, steadier long-term trend.

Recent cooling of the upper ocean

We observe a net loss of 3.2 (± 1.1) × 10 22 J of heat from the upper ocean between 2003 and 2005. Using a broad array of in situ ocean measurements, we present annual estimates of global upper-ocean heat content anomaly from 1993 through 2005. Including the recent downturn, the average warming rate for the entire 13-year period is 0.33 ± 0.23 W/m 2 (of the Earths total surface area). A new estimate of sampling error in the heat content record suggests that both the recent and previous global cooling events are significant and unlikely to be artifacts of inadequate ocean sampling.

Satellite-based global-ocean mass balance estimates of interannual variability and emerging trends in continental freshwater discharge

Freshwater discharge from the continents is a key component of Earth’s water cycle that sustains human life and ecosystem health. Surprisingly, owing to a number of socioeconomic and political obstacles, a comprehensive global river discharge observing system does not yet exist. Here we use 13 years (1994–2006) of satellite precipitation, evaporation, and sea level data in an ocean mass balance to estimate freshwater discharge into the global ocean. Results indicate that global freshwater discharge averaged 36,055 km3/y for the study period while exhibiting significant interannual variability driven primarily by El Niño Southern Oscillation cycles. The method described here can ultimately be used to estimate long-term global discharge trends as the records of sea level rise and ocean temperature lengthen. For the relatively short 13-year period studied here, global discharge increased by 540 km3/y2, which was largely attributed to an increase of global-ocean evaporation (768 km3/y2). Sustained growth of these flux rates into long-term trends would provide evidence for increasing intensity of the hydrologic cycle.

Recent hiatus caused by decadal shift in Indo-Pacific heating

Looking for the missing heat Global warming apparently slowed, or even stopped, during the first decade of the 21st century. This pause is commonly called the “hiatus.” We know, however, that Earths climate system is accumulating excess solar energy owing to the build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Where, then, has this energy gone if not into the air? Nieves et al. find that over this period, the surface Pacific Ocean has cooled but the upper Indian and Southern Oceans have warmed. Thus, the decade-long hiatus that began in 2003 would appear to be the result of a redistribution of heat within the ocean, rather than a change in the whole-Earth warming rate. Science, this issue p. 532 Shifting ocean heat distributions slowed global warming. Recent modeling studies have proposed different scenarios to explain the slowdown in surface temperature warming in the most recent decade. Some of these studies seem to support the idea of internal variability and/or rearrangement of heat between the surface and the ocean interior. Others suggest that radiative forcing might also play a role. Our examination of observational data over the past two decades shows some significant differences when compared to model results from reanalyses and provides the most definitive explanation of how the heat was redistributed. We find that cooling in the top 100-meter layer of the Pacific Ocean was mainly compensated for by warming in the 100- to 300-meter layer of the Indian and Pacific Oceans in the past decade since 2003.

Correction to ''Recent cooling of the upper ocean''

The recent cooling signal in the upper ocean reported by Lyman et al. [2006] is shown to be an artifact that was caused by a large cold bias discovered in a small fraction of Argo floats as well as a smaller but more prevalent warm bias in eXpendable BathyThermograph (XBT) data. These biases are both substantially larger than sampling errors estimated in Lyman et al. [2006].

In Situ Data Biases and Recent Ocean Heat Content Variability

Abstract Two significant instrument biases have been identified in the in situ profile data used to estimate globally integrated upper-ocean heat content. A large cold bias was discovered in a small fraction of Argo floats along with a smaller but more prevalent warm bias in expendable bathythermograph (XBT) data. These biases appear to have caused the bulk of the upper-ocean cooling signal reported by Lyman et al. between 2003 and 2005. These systematic data errors are significantly larger than sampling errors in recent years and are the dominant sources of error in recent estimates of globally integrated upper-ocean heat content variability. The bias in the XBT data is found to be consistent with errors in the fall-rate equations, suggesting a physical explanation for that bias. With biased profiles discarded, no significant warming or cooling is observed in upper-ocean heat content between 2003 and 2006.

The OSTM/Jason-2 Mission

The Ocean Surface Topography Mission/Jason-2 (OSTM/Jason-2) satellite altimetry mission was successfully launched on June 20, 2008, as a cooperative mission between CNES, EUMETSAT, NASA, and NOAA. OSTM/Jason-2 will continue to precisely measure the surface topography of the oceans and continental surface waters, following on the same orbit as its predecessors, TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason-1. To maintain the high-accuracy measurements, the mission carries a dual-frequency altimeter, a three-frequency microwave radiometer, and three precise positioning systems. The objectives of the mission are both operational and scientific. The mission will provide near-real time high-precision altimetric measurements for integration into ocean forecasting models and other products. The mission will also extend the precise surface topography time series started by TOPEX/Poseidon in 1992 over two decades in order to study long-term ocean variations such as mean sea level variations and interannual and decadal oscillations. The measurement system has been adapted to provide quality data nearer to the coasts, and over lakes and rivers. This paper provides an overview of the OSTM/Jason-2 mission in terms of the system design and a brief introduction to the science objectives.

Regional Sea-Level Projection

More accurate projections of regional sea levels are needed to inform adaptation and mitigation planning. Projections of global sea-level rise by 2100 C.E. range from 20 cm (1) to as much as 2 m (2, 3), and sea level will not stop rising then. For civilization, the stakes are high. Without adaptation, a rise by 0.5 m would displace 3.8 million people in the most fertile part of the Nile River Delta (4). A rise by 2 m could displace 187 million people globally (5). Credible projections of sea-level rise in the 21st century are essential for devising adaptation or mitigation measures. Yet, present estimates of future sea-level rise are too imprecise to inform such decisions.

Closing the Time-Varying Mass and Heat Budgets for Large Ocean Areas: The Tasman Box

Abstract The role of oceanic advection in seasonal-to-interannual balances of mass and heat is studied using a 12-yr time series of quarterly eddy-resolving expendable bathythermograph (XBT) surveys around the perimeter of a region the authors call the Tasman Box in the southwestern Pacific. The region contains the South Pacific’s subtropical western boundary current system and associated strong mesoscale variability. Mean geostrophic transport in the warm upper ocean (temperature greater than 12°C) is about 3.8 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) southward into the box across the Brisbane, Australia–Fiji northern edge. Net outflows are 3.3 Sv eastward across the Auckland, New Zealand–Fiji edge, and 2.7 Sv southward across Sydney, Australia–Wellington, New Zealand. Mean Ekman convergence of 2.2 Sv closes the mass budget. Net water mass conversions in the upper ocean consist of inflow of waters averaging about 26°C and 35.4 psu balanced by outflow at about 18°C and 35.7 psu, and reflect the net evaporation and heat los...